美联储"三把手"、纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳 动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。 周四，威廉姆斯表示："劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他认为，如果经济如预期 发展——通胀率升至3%左右，失业率微升至当前4.3%以上——他将支持"今年降息"。 他还表示，并不认为美国经济处于衰退的边缘。通胀前景不像今年早些时候那么可怕。劳动力市场疲软 将有助于抑制通胀。 威廉姆斯的言论呼应了市场的普遍预期。联邦基金期货的定价显示，投资者预计美联储将在今年余下的 两次会议（10月和12月）中再次降息。今晚20:30，鲍威尔在美联储理事会主办的社区银行会议上有一 场开场录播讲话，届时可能将会释放有关美国经济的信号。 就业市场渐进降温引发政策调整考量 威廉姆斯详细阐述了美联储对当前就业市场状况的评估。他表示，过去一年来劳动力市场呈现渐进式降 温趋势，虽然失业率仅上升了几个十分之一个百分点，但职位空缺持续下降，离职率也降至较低水平。 "我们看到就业市场在过去一年中逐步降温，但这种降温并未引发对即将陷入衰退或急剧放缓的担 忧，"威廉姆斯说。他表示，9月份的最新指标显示，整体就 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing a strong rally driven by optimism regarding easing inflation pressures, resilient corporate earnings, and expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][3] - The MSCI global index, tracking over 2,500 stocks, has set new records for four consecutive trading days, while the S&P 500 index has reached historical highs [1][3]. - The recent decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [3][4]. Group 2 - Strong corporate fundamentals are providing a solid foundation for the stock market's rise, with robust economic growth and corporate earnings supporting returns across major markets, including the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Asia [5][6]. - Oracle's impressive performance, particularly its optimistic outlook on AI-related revenues, has significantly boosted its stock price, adding $244 billion to its market capitalization in a single day, marking its best performance since 1992 [6]. Group 3 - Market sentiment has shifted rapidly from earlier concerns about persistent inflation and geopolitical risks to a more optimistic outlook [7]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, as a surprising decline could further support the case for larger interest rate cuts [7]. - Potential risks remain, particularly regarding the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which may become more apparent in the coming months [7].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 6508.23 points, with major U.S. tech stocks mostly rising [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.16%, the Nasdaq index rose by 0.53%, and the S&P 500 index gained 0.32% [2] - Nvidia's stock fell by 0.82% after the company reported second-quarter revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, but third-quarter sales forecasts raised market concerns [2] Group 2 - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar, breaking the 7.12 mark for the first time since early November 2024, with an intraday increase of over 310 basis points [3] - Precious metals prices saw a general increase, with London gold rising by 0.56% and London silver increasing by 1.10% [4] - The NYMEX WTI crude oil price rose slightly by 0.27% [4] Group 3 - The European Commission proposed legislative measures to eliminate certain tariffs on U.S. goods, aiming to stabilize and enhance transatlantic trade and investment relations [5][6] - The proposal includes the cancellation of tariffs on some U.S. industrial products and preferential market access for certain seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products [6] - The U.S. committed to reducing tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15% and implementing zero or near-zero tariffs on several products starting September 1 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The UK central bank is likely to lower interest rates in response to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth [1] Group 1: Employment Market - Average wage growth in the UK has slowed to 5% for the three months ending in May, down from 5.3% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since 2021, indicating cracks in the UK employment market [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Joe Nellis from MHA Economic Advisors suggests that with easing inflation pressures, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote for a rate cut in their next meeting on August 7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) anticipates a slowdown in global economic activity in the second half of 2025, along with a reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - The MAS's basic expectation is that global economic activity will slow down in the latter half of 2025 [1] - Inflationary pressures are expected to ease during this period [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflationary pressures in Switzerland have eased, as stated by the Swiss National Bank President, Thomas Jordan [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank is observing a reduction in inflationary trends, indicating a potential stabilization in the economy [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years, reducing it by 100 basis points to 20% due to slowing inflation and signs of economic distress under high borrowing costs [1][4] - The decision to cut rates comes amid a backdrop of declining inflation pressures, with the central bank noting that the effects of tight monetary policy on demand are becoming evident as inflation decreases [1][4] - Economic Minister Maxim Reshetnikov has publicly called for rate cuts to stimulate growth, indicating that some sectors are cooling too quickly, reflecting growing concerns about economic downturn risks [4] Group 2 - The annualized inflation rate has decreased from 7% in March to 6.2% in April, with estimates suggesting it may have returned to the 4% target level by May [4] - Despite the recent decline in inflation, economists warn that the central bank may view this as a fragile balance, with expectations of alternating between maintaining rates and cautious rate cuts in the second half of the year [4] - The central bank's future rate decisions will depend on the speed and sustainability of inflation and expectations decline, indicating that tight monetary policy may remain in place for an extended period [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of England announced a 25 basis points interest rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - UK inflation pressures have eased, and economic growth showed unexpected improvement in February, with both year-on-year and month-on-month GDP growth exceeding expectations [1] - Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that the Bank of England will maintain a quarterly rate cut pace, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to 3.75% by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, anticipates a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the UK economy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflation trends and expects them to stabilize over time [1] - Bailey emphasized that the central bank's policies are aimed at managing inflation effectively [1] - The outlook suggests potential for improved economic conditions as inflationary pressures decrease [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey stated that inflationary pressures are easing, which has allowed for a reduction in interest rates [1] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates is a response to the current economic conditions, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - The easing of inflationary pressures may signal a more stable economic environment, potentially influencing investment strategies [1] - This development could have implications for various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate changes [1]