证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央经济工作会议精神学习：符 合预期，整体定调更具针对性》 - 2025.12.12 宏观观点 降息符合预期，购债操作重启——12 月美联储议息 会议点评 ⚫ 核心观点： 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在本周会议上决定将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。本次决议出 现三票反对票，除了美联储理事米兰依然坚持主张应降息 50 个基点 外，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比均认为本月 不应降息。会议声明中修改了两处措辞，包括加入了"在考虑额外调 整的范围和时机时"委员会将密切关注新数据；以及"委员会认为， 准备金余额已降至充足水平，并将根据需要持续购买短期国债"。 不同于此前市场普遍预期的鹰派降息，本次会议整体基调略偏鸽 派。首先，美联储宣布启动以准备金管理为目的的国债购买操作，首 ...

宏观研究 美联储如期降息并重启购债，未来降息步伐或将 事 件 点 评 放缓 12 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 投资要点： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn S0340524080001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn S0340525070001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： yezipei@dgzq.com.cn 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 事件：北京时间周四（12 月 11 日）凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 公布最新利率决议。 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： 分析师：尹炜祺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential bond-buying is aimed at technical management of bank reserves rather than a broad monetary easing strategy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet, leading to tightening market liquidity, particularly since October, prompting institutions to frequently use repurchase agreements [3]. - The Federal Reserve's asset size has decreased by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to 21%, making it reasonable to halt the balance sheet reduction [5]. - The Federal Reserve's goal is to maintain smooth market operations by intervening before reserves reach critical levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of liquidity crises [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The bond-buying may not immediately lead to a rebound in yields but could prevent further declines, reflecting a cautious external environment [5]. - There is a risk that market participants may misinterpret the Federal Reserve's bond purchases as a signal of a new easing cycle, which could lead to premature capital flow changes [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve aims to avoid miscommunication similar to the European Central Bank's experience, where reinvestment actions were misinterpreted as easing, causing increased volatility [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The strategy of providing liquidity in advance reflects the Federal Reserve's emphasis on the resilience of the financial system, which is crucial for preventing economic downturns [16]. - However, prolonged high reserve levels may lead to market dependency on central bank liquidity, potentially undermining risk pricing capabilities [16]. - The Federal Reserve's bond-buying serves as a technical measure that highlights the importance of liquidity management in influencing market sentiment and expectations [16].