新华财经北京8月25日电韩国央行可能在周四的政策会议上连续第二次维持利率不变。《华尔街日报》 对27位经济学家进行的调查显示，20位经济学家预计不会调整利率，其余7位预计会降息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 以Goohoon Kwon为首的高盛经济学家在一份报告中说，持温和立场将让韩国央行有空间监测家庭债务 趋势，评估持续财政刺激的效果，并跟踪美联储的政策立场。 高盛预测韩国银行将在10月份下调利率。多数经济学家预计，韩国央行将略微上调2025年GDP和通胀预 期，理由是第二季度经济增长数据强于预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, which has led to a slight decrease in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield as traders react to the updated economic outlook [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - In the June dot plot, Federal Reserve officials reduced their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the end of 2027 [1] - The Fed now projects economic growth rates of 1.4% for this year and 1.6% for next year, down from previous estimates of 1.7% and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the dot plot, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a slight decline, indicating traders' responses to the Fed's economic growth slowdown predictions [1]

标普500指数涨幅收窄至不足0.2%，费城银行指数涨幅扩大至超过2.1%。 美国两年期国债收益率短线跳水大约5个基点，刷新日低至接近3.88%的水平，美联储发布6月决议声 明，下调2025年美国GDP预期，上调通胀预期。 现货黄金短线从3385美元一线反弹至3395美元上方，日内转而重新涨0.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The Spanish central bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.4%, from a previous estimate of 2.7% [1]

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Fed can remain patient and is ready to respond when necessary [2] - US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in May, with trade-related data highlighting the impact of tariffs [2] - OECD lowered the US GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.5%, expecting no changes in Fed interest rates this year [2] Group 2: Non-USD Major Currencies - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes indicated that the committee does not see the need for a 50 basis point rate cut, noting that US tariffs have not yet impacted the Australian economy [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated there are currently no preset plans for interest rate hikes, which will only be considered if the economy and prices rise again; a bond reduction plan will be reviewed in the next meeting [3] - Japan's Ministry of Finance issued approximately 2.6 trillion yen in 10-year government bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of about 3.66, the highest in nearly a year, leading to a rise in medium to long-term bond prices [3] Group 3: Other Economic Indicators - The OECD projected global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the March forecast [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its interest rate at 0.5% amid increasing uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs, delaying the timeline for achieving its inflation target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The BOJ extends its outlook period by one year, now including the fiscal year 2027, with core inflation expected to align with the 2% target around the second half of this outlook period [2] - The BOJ's forecast for core inflation in the fiscal year starting April 2027 is set at 1.9%, with inflation excluding fresh food and energy projected at 2% [2] - The BOJ indicates a readiness to tighten monetary policy further if conditions allow, despite recent economic growth forecasts being downgraded [2][5] Economic Growth Projections - The BOJ halves its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, reducing the GDP growth rate from 1.1% to 0.5% for FY2025 and from 1.0% to 0.7% for FY2026 [5][7] - The GDP growth rate for FY2027 is projected at 1.0% [5] Inflation Risks - The BOJ notes that inflation risks are skewed to the downside for the next two years, reflecting heightened uncertainty regarding trade policies [7][8] - Swap traders have delayed bets on interest rate hikes, with the likelihood of a rate increase by the end of the year now at approximately 39% [7] Market Reactions - The yen depreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching 143.79, while Japanese bond prices rose, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 4.5 basis points to 1.265% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the BOJ's stance on future rate hikes, especially in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the recent strength of the yen [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of recent U.S. trade policies and economic indicators on the gold market, indicating a complex interplay between short-term pressures and long-term safe-haven demand [2][3] - President Trump signed an executive order to alleviate tariff impacts on automakers, while the U.S. Commerce Secretary revealed a secret trade agreement, aiming to reduce market anxiety [2] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, potentially dragging down Q1 GDP by nearly 2 percentage points, raising concerns about economic performance [2] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index fell to a five-year low in April, and job openings dropped by 288,000 in March, signaling economic weakness [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its Q1 GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.8%, reflecting growing pessimism among economists [2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, the long-term safe-haven logic remains intact, as indicated by David Meger, who noted that the recent price correction is merely technical [2] Group 3 - Current gold T+D prices are at 780.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.49%, and trading has seen a high of 786.00 yuan and a low of 779.65 yuan [3] - Resistance levels for gold are observed at 835-840 yuan, while support is seen at 760-765 yuan [3]