美银的一项月度调查显示，基金经理以创纪录的速度重返风险资产，对美股的配置创去年12月以来最大 增幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the potential investment opportunities in the US stock market following the recent fluctuations caused by reciprocal tariff issues, despite concerns over high valuations and a slight weakening of the US economy [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Recent data for July indicates relative stability, but it does not significantly alter the fact that the US economy is experiencing slight weakening [1] - Earnings for US stocks may face further minor downward adjustments, particularly in sectors like information technology and telecommunications, which are expected to show strong earnings performance [1] Group 2: Market Valuation and Investment Strategy - The overall valuation of US stocks remains relatively high, but the potential for a controlled pullback in the second half of the year is noted [1] - The leading technology sector shows a slight decline in valuation while maintaining strong earnings realization capabilities, making it a valuable investment option [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Following the disturbances from reciprocal tariffs in July, there is a possibility of further capital inflow into US stocks, especially as the market approaches the fourth quarter [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong U.S. labor market and solid economic fundamentals [1][2] - The June non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [2] - The labor participation rate decreased to 62.3%, slightly below expectations, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have shifted, with a 93% probability of no change in rates, while a rate cut is anticipated to begin in September, with two cuts expected by year-end [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is influenced by the need to address inflation uncertainties caused by tariffs, which are expected to diminish, allowing for potential rate cuts [3] - The recent decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields may have been excessive, and upcoming debt supply and inflationary pressures could lead to higher rates, presenting reallocation opportunities in both the bond and equity markets [3]