Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to trade within a range, with the M2601 contract likely to move between 3030 and 3130 yuan/ton [5]. - The oil market is expected to have limited short - term high - level corrections and a bullish long - term outlook [72]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Supply - demand and Price Movement - As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3060 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton monthly. The basis was 01 - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract fluctuated within the range of [3030, 3200] [5]. - In the US, the soybean planting area was unexpectedly reduced to around 81 million acres. The good growth of new crops and insufficient export demand led to a volatile trend. In China, the supply of soybean meal was loose, and the cost increase from Brazilian premiums pushed up the price. After the state - owned reserve auction, the domestic soybean price was weak in November, with strong cost support around 3030 yuan/ton [5]. 1.2 Supply Side - As of August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was around 69%. The ProFarmer survey expected a yield of 53 bushels per acre, but less rainfall in August might affect the high - yield target. In mid - to - early September, there was a risk of a decline in the good - to - excellent rate and yield due to low precipitation and temperature [5]. - The state - owned reserve auction of imported soybeans for November delivery alleviated concerns about supply shortages from November to January. The meeting between China and the US also eased trade concerns. Before November, the arrival of soybeans in China remained high, and the weekly crushing volume was over 2.2 million tons, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [5]. 1.3 Demand Side - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with the feed demand increasing by more than 5% year - on - year. Due to the improved cost - effectiveness of soybean meal, the proportion of soybean meal added in feed increased by 1 percentage point year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year will increase by more than 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [5]. - As of August 22, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased slightly to 6.8253 million tons, up 269,400 tons monthly and down 394,000 tons year - on - year (a decrease of 5.46%). The soybean meal inventory continued to increase slightly to 1.0533 million tons, up 11,700 tons monthly and down 445,300 tons year - on - year (a decrease of 29.71%) [5]. 1.4 Cost Side - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans was expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. Based on the latest Brazilian premium of 285X, the exchange rate of 7.18, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.8, the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost rose to 3060 yuan/ton [5]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - The M2601 contract should be mainly traded within the range. Long positions can be established at the lower end of the range, and positions can be gradually reduced at high levels. Spot enterprises can increase their positions on a rolling basis [5]. 2. Global Soybean Supply - demand - The global soybean supply tightened as the US soybean planting area decreased, and the global soybean output was reduced to 426 million tons. With high demand, the difference between production and consumption narrowed to 1.29 million tons [6]. 3. US Soybean Inventory - sales Ratio and Demand - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio tightened as the planting area decreased, and the output dropped to 4.292 billion bushels, with the inventory - sales ratio narrowing to 6.66% [18]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.99 dollars per bushel, up 14.12% week - on - week and down 0.33% year - on - year. From 2024/25, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans reached 49.279891 million tons, with 21.4736 million tons exported to China, accounting for 43.57% [18]. 4. US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans in 18 states was 69%, up 1% week - on - week and higher than 67% in the same period last year [20]. 5. Brazilian Soybean Export - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT soybeans reached 88.72%, lower than 90.38% in the same period last year, but the overall sales progress was good due to the large increase in production this year [28]. 6. US Soybean Main - producing Area Climate - In the next two weeks, the main soybean - producing areas in the US will have less precipitation and lower temperatures, which is unfavorable for the improvement of the good - to - excellent rate. It is difficult for the US soybean yield to reach 53.7 bushels per acre [32]. 7. US Soybean Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 1135 cents per bushel. With a maximum loss of 150 cents per bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans was expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. Supported by the planting cost and the strong international vegetable oil price, the downside space of US soybeans was limited [40]. 8. Premium and Pressing Profit - The Brazilian soybean premium was stable and strong as the sales pressure weakened at the end of the sales season, and global demand was strong. The US soybean premium was also strong due to the tightened inventory - sales ratio and demand for crushing and export [42]. - The domestic soybean import and pressing profit was in the profit range, but the pressing profit of US soybeans was in continuous loss due to the tariff increase from Sino - US trade. Domestic enterprises actively purchased Brazilian shipments from August to September, but there were no purchases of US soybean shipments after November, increasing the probability of a supply gap from November to January [47]. 9. Theoretical Cost of Soybean Meal - Based on the Olam Brazilian premium of 285X in October, the cost of soybean meal was estimated to be around 3060 yuan/ton. Using the US West Coast premium of 268SX in October, the cost was around 3020 yuan/ton [50]. 10. Soybean Purchase and Arrival - The purchase of near - term shipments was progressing steadily and quickly, with the purchase progress of September shipments reaching 100%. The purchase of long - term shipments was slow due to the loss of pressing profit and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade [56]. - Before September, the arrival of soybeans in China was around 10 million tons, with sufficient supply and a stockpiling trend. After November, insufficient arrivals might lead to a phased price increase [56]. 11. Demand for Soybean Meal - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for soybean meal, with the bottom demand support strengthened [70]. 12. Oil Market 12.1 Price Movement - As of August 29, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 yuan/ton to 9316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 yuan/ton to 8358 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 yuan/ton to 9789 yuan/ton. The prices of the three major oils first rose sharply and then fell back [74]. 12.2 Palm Oil - In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production growth was limited, and the inventory accumulation speed might slow down. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in June, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. However, the high - level adjustment risk of Malaysian palm oil remained, and the 11 - contract bottom was expected to be between 4400 - 4300. In China, the short - term supply was loose, but the inventory might decrease after October [74]. 12.3 Soybean Oil - The estimated yield of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 53 bushels per acre, and the harvest pressure was increasing. However, the reduction of the sown area in the USDA August report tightened the supply - demand, and the support above the cost line of 1000 cents per bushel was strong. The short - term US soybean 11 - contract was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the bottom between 1040 - 1050. In China, the soybean supply was sufficient before October, but it might tighten after November, which could drive the soybean oil inventory to decrease [74]. 12.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed tightened the domestic supply before November. However, the improvement of Sino - Australian relations and potential Sino - Canadian negotiations might affect the market. In Canada, the supply might be excessive due to the loss of the Chinese market and expected high - yield [74]. 12.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction phase and go long after the correction [74].