投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松,目前11-1买船进度偏慢。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充，补充来源暂不确定。需求方面，生推 | | --- | --- | | | 和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏。支撑饲用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重,预期影响远月生猪供应;豆粗性价比较高。提倡干 | | 41 | 高位;本周豆相下游现货成交有所改量。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位;油厂豆粕库存上升，但低于去年同期，预期短期仍处于累 | | 倩 | 库周期:饲料企业豆粕库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说,目前阿根廷豆和巴西豆的GNP升贴水价差达到100美分，远高于正常年份,从昨晚贴水表现来看巴西价格较为坚挺,预期阿 | | | 根廷贴水继续大幅下跌冲击成本的空间有限。今日M01量能萎缩,暂时休隆,关注贴水变化,短期M01预期偏震荡, | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求推确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | से | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit has turned worse. Due to the comprehensive import cost support expectation of US premiums and discounts, the downside space of the futures market is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips. Later, focus on Sino - US policy changes [9] 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Data Daily - On September 16th, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was - 11, and the basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 143 with a decline of 3. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 523 with a decline of 15, and the price difference between the main contracts was 366 with an increase of 14. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0735, and the import soybean futures margin was 299 yuan/ton with a decline of 6 [6][7] 3.2 Supply - demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply side: The reduction of US soybean yield per unit in the September USDA supply - demand report was less than expected. The demand side increased the crushing volume and continued to reduce exports. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 300 million bushels, slightly higher than expected. The new balance sheet of US soybeans remained tight. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 63%, and may continue to decline. The expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans in September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle. The supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [8][9] - Demand side: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports feed demand. Policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level [9] - Inventory side: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have slightly decreased [9]

Report Information - Report date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3056, the opening price was 3044, the highest price was 3072, the lowest price was 3039, the closing price was 3066, with a gain of 10 and a gain - rate of 0.33%. The trading volume was 798340, the open interest was 2037475, and the change in open interest was - 10640 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3003, the highest price was 3025, the lowest price was 3003, the closing price was 3020, with a gain of 7 and a gain - rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 7748738, and the change in open interest was - 1163 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3028, the opening price was 3015, the highest price was 3044, the lowest price was 3009, the closing price was 3034, with a gain of 6 and a gain - rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 55946, the open interest was 534307, and the change in open interest was 11836 [6]. - **External Market and Influencing Factors**: The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent correction of soybean meal was mainly due to the expectation of Sino - US trade consultations and the unexpectedly high previous US soybean good - to - excellent rate. As the US soybean harvest season approaches, the pressure on US farmers is increasing. China, as the largest buyer of US soybeans, has not purchased new - season US soybeans yet. The USDA's latest good - to - excellent rate this week was 65%, down from 69% the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [7]. 2. Core View - In the medium term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter to replace US soybeans, supplemented by some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which may be supplemented by state - reserve auctions. Due to the decreasing supply of Brazilian soybeans, the marginal price may rise. Considering the weather factors, there is no possibility of a significant weakening of the Brazilian FOB quotation in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the受阻 import of Canadian rapeseed, the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7]. 3. Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68% and down from 69% the previous week, the same as the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 94%, up from 89% the previous week, higher than 93% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The defoliation rate was 11%, up from 4% the previous week, slightly lower than 12% in the same period last year and slightly higher than the five - year average of 10% [10]. - **USDA Export Inspection Report**: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, in line with expectations (the previous market forecast was 200,000 - 500,000 tons). The previous week's revised volume was 393,189 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period of the previous year [9][10][11]. - **USDA Monthly Crushing**: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), higher than 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [11]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][19][14]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT US soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space below the 01 contract is limited. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Spot and Spread Data - **Spot Basis**: The 43% soybean meal spot basis varies by location. For example, in Dalian it's 96, in Tianjin it's 46 - 4, and in different regions it shows different values and changes. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 34 with a change of 25 [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 386 with a change of 5, and the futures price spread of the main contract is 541 with a change of - 1. The RM1 - 5 spread is 107, and the M1 - 5 spread is 240 [6][7]. - **Other Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal price spread and relevant data are also presented, along with the soybean CNF premium - continuous month data and the relationship between the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and relevant profits [7]. 2. Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The ISDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre, but lowered the planting area in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is reduced to 290 million bushels. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans this week reached 69%, but due to less rainfall and low temperature in the producing areas, the good - excellent rate may decline slightly [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The expected arrival of soybeans in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the inventory is in the accumulation cycle. In October, the inventory is expected to start decreasing, and the supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7][8]. 3. Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the feed demand. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which will affect the long - term supply of pigs. Some regions use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. The downstream transactions of soybean meal this week are cautious [8]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level and is in the accumulation cycle [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal inventory is increasing, lower than the same period last year, and is expected to continue accumulating. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8].

Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the soybean meal has pulled back due to the expected Sino - US trade consultations and the better - than - expected good rate of US soybeans. In the medium - term, considering the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans and some Argentine soybeans in the fourth quarter, with a possible small import gap to be filled by state - reserve auctions. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter, and the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - For the futures contracts of soybean meal, the prices of contracts 2601, 2509, and 2511 all decreased. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3045, down 52 or 1.68% from the previous settlement price; the 2509 contract closed at 2992, down 54 or 1.77%; and the 2511 contract closed at 3010, down 59 or 1.92%. The trading volume and changes in open interest also varied among different contracts [6] - The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent pull - back of soybean meal was mainly due to the expected Sino - US trade consultations and the better - than - expected good rate of US soybeans. The approaching US soybean harvest season has increased the pressure on US farmers, and China has not purchased new - season US soybeans yet. The USDA's latest reported good rate of US soybeans is 69%, the highest in the past five years [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the medium - term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Pro Farmer predicts that the average yield per acre of US corn will reach a record 182.7 bushels per acre, with a total output of 1.6204 billion bushels. For soybeans, the average yield per acre is also expected to set a new record at 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 424.6 million bushels [10] - Pakistan is expected to sign an important procurement agreement with major US soybean exporters, planning to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans with a total transaction value of about $500 million [10] - A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban, temporarily suspending a decision of the Brazilian antitrust regulatory agency CADE, which had required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [11] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The content provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, but specific data analysis is not provided [13][16][19]

Group 1 - The quality rating of U.S. soybeans is significantly higher than market expectations, indicating a strong crop outlook [1] - Argentine soybeans are set to return to the market, which may impact global supply dynamics [1] - There are indications that soybean meal prices may continue to decline, reflecting market adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. Although the market has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area due to trade friction concerns, it will be reflected if conditions permit. The higher-than-expected quarterly inventory report has a negative impact, but its persistence is limited as inventory data will change with demand [1][16]. - The trade agreement is always the most important driving factor for US soybeans. Additionally, attention should be paid to the weather in the main soybean-producing areas in the US, the soybean's good-to-excellent rate, and US tariff policies [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 USDA Planting Area Intentions Report - The USDA's June planting area intentions report estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.38 million acres, lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year decrease of about 4.2%. The estimated corn planting area was 95.203 million acres, slightly lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year increase of about 5%. The soybean planting area in 2025 is the lowest since 2021, and the corn planting area is the highest since 2016 [4]. - The reduction in the US soybean planting area is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The report data is positive for US soybeans and negative for US corn prices. The market has fully priced in the pressure of corn's increased planting area, but has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area [5]. 3.2 USDA Quarterly Inventory Report - According to the USDA's June 30, 2025, quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending June 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 1 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 3.9%, higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels and at the highest level for the same period since 2021. The on-farm inventory was about 410 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, and the off-farm inventory was about 596 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 18% [13]. 3.3 Report Impact and Future Outlook - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The planting area intentions report is positive, while the quarterly inventory report is negative, but the impact of the planting area report is greater and crucial for the formation of US soybean production in 2025 [16]. - Future points of attention include: the weather in the main US soybean-producing areas, as the monthly forecast shows high temperatures and less precipitation in some areas in July, and the short-term forecast shows normal precipitation and slightly high temperatures in the next two weeks; the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans, as the data in June 2025 was lower than the same period last year, and the market may price it in if it continues to be low; and US tariff policies, trade negotiations, or trade agreements, as the trade agreement is the most important driving factor for US soybeans [2][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the aquaculture season boosts demand. However, the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the international oil price and strong external oils support the price, and it may continue a relatively strong trend in the short term. But high domestic oil - mill inventory and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9691 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2694 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 736.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5290 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 266 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 197 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 104 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 390919 lots, up 2081 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 520553 lots, up 3436 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 38797 lots, up 3682 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 24294 lots, up 6553 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 100 pieces, unchanged; those of rapeseed meal are 25854 pieces, down 10 pieces [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9903.75 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 5415.48 yuan/ton, down 40.83 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8370 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Spreads between substitutes: The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1580 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1100 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The global forecasted annual rapeseed production is 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecasted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports and processing: The total monthly rapeseed import volume is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 76 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan. The total weekly rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4167 million yuan, down 68 million yuan [2]. Industry News - On June 18, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of CBOT soybean oil prices. The November rapeseed contract fell 3.40 Canadian dollars to settle at 736.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the July rapeseed contract fell 6.00 Canadian dollars to settle at 738.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70% [2].