Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - **External Market Factors**: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - **Domestic Market Factors**: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - **Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas**: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]

Group 1 - The latest delay in the implementation of US tariffs provides an opportunity for further negotiations, with 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, facing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% [1] - Vietnam recently reached a trade agreement with the US, avoiding an initially proposed 46% tariff, with many goods now subject to a 20% tariff, while transshipped goods will incur a 40% tariff [1] - Japan and South Korea are the largest exporters to the US among the countries receiving tariff notifications, with export totals of $148 billion and $131.5 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets are significantly influenced by the dollar in their export or import pricing, with most investment inflows in these markets being dollar-based [2] - If the US imposes higher tariffs on Asian countries, the Asia-Pacific region appears more capable of withstanding the resulting economic pressure [2] - A weaker dollar should provide greater flexibility for Asian central banks to ease policies to support their economies without excessive concern over currency depreciation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank has revised its global GDP growth forecast down from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that trade disputes and policy uncertainties will hinder economic growth [1] Economic Outlook - The reduction in GDP growth expectations reflects ongoing challenges in the global economy, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and unpredictable policy environments [1] - The forecast suggests that these factors will have a significant impact on economic performance in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to a strong dollar and uncertainty in demand, with LME three-month copper prices falling to $9,374.00 per ton, a decrease of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper closed at $9,374.00, down $18.50 or 0.2%, while earlier in the week it reached a high of $9,481.50, the highest level since April 3 [1] - Other base metals also saw declines, with three-month aluminum down $21.00 (0.86%), zinc down $41.00 (1.53%), lead down $15.00 (0.77%), and tin down $276.00 (1.74%) [2][7] - In contrast, three-month tin increased by $217.00 (0.68%) [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah highlighted the uncertainty surrounding trade disputes and their potential impact on demand, contributing to the current market sluggishness [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 32% decrease in monitored copper inventories this week, raising concerns about potential short squeezes [3][5] - U.S. Comex copper futures fell by 0.2% to $4.85 per pound, with a premium of $1,289 per ton over LME prices, influenced by easing tariff tensions and a stronger dollar [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a first-quarter copper output of 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year-on-year, with a production target of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons for the year [6] - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine achieved a first-quarter production of 95,728 tons, marking one of its best quarterly performances, with expectations for an upward revision of its annual production guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 tons [6] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) projected a supply surplus in the global refined zinc and lead markets by 2025, with refined lead supply exceeding demand by 82,000 tons and refined zinc supply exceeding demand by 93,000 tons [7]