看着茅台酒开放限购每人每天12瓶的信息，我一度陷入了恍惚，难道茅台不是需要抢的吗？ 曾记得22年"i茅台"刚上线的时候，抢茅台的在线人数一度给系统干到崩溃。身边的很多同事也加入了抢茅台 的大军，每抢到一瓶茅台增加几百块的溢价可以快速脱手。 抢茅台成了很多打工族工作之余增加收入的一个途径，每天朋友圈里都会有人晒茅台订单，能抢到在当时是 被看做运气好的表现。 最近确实发朋友圈炫耀自己抢到茅台的人少了，没想到三四年的时间，这个抢购小游戏也玩不下去了。 表面是开放限购是为了更多的人能买到，为了方便用户。但是在商言商，商家每一步操作背后的算盘都打的 噼啪作响，核心还是为了赚钱。 开放限购的更合理解释是销售压力大，是真卖不动了。 茅台酒只是晴雨表，如果你仔细盘点会惊奇的发现，是几乎所有的老登资产都卖不动了。 何谓老登资产，顾名思义就是老登喜欢的资产。是因为中老年人的偏好，被作为投资品的资产。名烟、名 酒、名表、古玩、字画便是非常典型的老登资产。 中年人相对于年轻人已经完成了原始财富的积累，因此手里有闲钱来购买能够体现雄厚财力、增加情绪价值 的东西。 老登资产非生活必需品，拥有与否并不能让人的实际生活有改善。他的主要价值是 ...

Core Insights - The price of Moutai has significantly decreased, with the wholesale price for the 53-degree 500ml bottle dropping to 1515 RMB, down over 31% from the beginning of the year [1] - Similar to Moutai, the price of Pizhou has also plummeted, with its stock price falling over 60% from its historical high, leading to a market capitalization reduction of 188.9 billion RMB [4] - The decline in prices for both Moutai and Pizhou signals a shift in consumer preferences, particularly among the younger generation, who favor health and experience over traditional luxury goods [5] Moutai Analysis - Moutai's price drop marks the first significant decline below the official guidance price since around 2013, indicating a strong market signal despite differing circumstances [2] - The company still maintains a reasonable profit margin, with an ex-factory price of 1169 RMB per bottle, allowing for profitability even at lower retail prices [8] - Moutai's financial performance remains robust, with a 13.2% year-on-year revenue growth and a 15.6% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [10] Pizhou Analysis - Pizhou's stock has seen a drastic decline, but its core product maintains a gross margin of over 85%, indicating strong financial health [11] - Despite the stock price drop, notable investors express confidence in Pizhou's long-term value, suggesting that the brand remains a valuable asset [8] Market Dynamics - The decline in prices for both Moutai and Pizhou reflects a broader market correction, moving away from speculative pricing and returning to fundamental values [12] - The regulatory environment has also shifted, with increased scrutiny on price manipulation, impacting the market dynamics for both brands [5]

Core Insights - The consumer market in 2025 is experiencing a significant downturn, with previously popular products like Pian Zai Huang and Moutai facing severe declines in both sales and market perception [1][10] - The decline of these products reflects a broader shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations who are less interested in traditional high-priced items [10][15] Company Performance - Pian Zai Huang reported a revenue of 7.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.93%, and a net profit of 2.129 billion yuan, down 20.74% [3] - The stock price of Pian Zai Huang plummeted from a peak of 473 yuan in 2021 to 181 yuan, representing a decline of over 60% and a market capitalization loss of nearly 200 billion yuan [3] - Moutai's wholesale price for its 53-degree Flying Moutai has dropped to below 1,700 yuan, nearly halving from its peak of 3,000 yuan [7] Market Dynamics - The market for Pian Zai Huang has seen a drastic reduction in resale value, with prices dropping from 1,600 yuan to 500 yuan, indicating a significant loss of consumer interest [3][5] - The white liquor industry, including Moutai, is facing an oversupply issue, with 400 million tons of inventory and a drastic reduction in production from 2016 to the present [7][10] - Young consumers are shifting their spending away from traditional products like Moutai and Pian Zai Huang towards modern alternatives such as trendy beverages and gaming [10][12] Innovation and Adaptation - Both Pian Zai Huang and Moutai have shown a lack of innovation, with Pian Zai Huang's R&D expenditure below 3%, and Moutai relying heavily on its brand without introducing new products [13][15] - The failure to adapt to changing consumer preferences has led to a decline in market relevance for both companies, as younger consumers reject the traditional marketing tactics that once worked [10][15] Conclusion - The decline of Pian Zai Huang and Moutai is indicative of a larger trend where traditional high-value products are losing their appeal in a rapidly changing market [15] - The shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations, suggests that companies must innovate and align with modern consumer values to survive [10][15]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between "old economy" assets and "new economy" assets has sparked widespread discussion, with notable shifts in investment strategies among prominent investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Some prominent investors, previously resistant to technology stocks, have begun to allocate funds to this sector, albeit reluctantly, due to market requirements [3]. - Investors maintaining a focus on "old economy" assets are facing challenges, with significant declines in fund values and missed opportunities in emerging sectors [3][4]. - The white wine sector, a traditional "old economy" asset, has seen a 7.56% decline in the China Securities White Wine Index this year, indicating ongoing struggles in this market [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The tourism sector is also underperforming, with hotel prices dropping due to low demand, reflecting broader trends in consumer spending [4]. - Certain "old economy" stocks, like West Cement, are experiencing downturns due to declines in infrastructure and real estate markets [4]. - A company has reported a significant increase in net profit, exceeding last year's total within just six months, attributed to expansion in African markets [6]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Predictions - Historical data suggests that sectors with strong performance in the first three quarters often underperform in the fourth quarter, indicating a potential shift in market focus [6][7]. - The likelihood of "old economy" assets appreciating in the fourth quarter may depend on policy stimulus or significant economic narratives [7]. - The upcoming holiday period may lead to a preference for cash holdings among investors, although market conditions are expected to remain stable with potential for stock market gains post-holiday [8].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.6% [2] - Over 3,400 stocks declined, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 224.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Wind power and insurance sectors showed the highest gains, while gaming, computing hardware, and photolithography sectors faced the largest declines [2][6] - Non-tech sectors led the market, with wind power equipment, chemical fibers, and agricultural chemicals among the top gainers, while sectors like copper cables and gaming saw significant losses [6] Investment Trends - A classification of A-share investors into three categories ("small", "medium", and "old") reflects varying investment focuses, with "small" investors gravitating towards high-growth tech sectors, while "medium" and "old" investors focus on more traditional sectors [3] - The current market sentiment indicates a rotation towards lower-valued sectors as high-flying tech stocks face corrections [5] Wind Power Sector Insights - International firms, including Morgan Stanley, have expressed optimism about China's wind power sector, predicting an average annual new installed capacity exceeding 110 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] - The wind power equipment sector is expected to see a profitability turnaround, with key components like gearboxes and blades poised to benefit from recovering demand [10] Chemical Fiber Sector Insights - The chemical industry is witnessing a stabilization of risks, with low valuations and growth opportunities emerging for both established leaders and high-growth newcomers [11] - The sector is expected to benefit from favorable fiscal and monetary policies, leading to an improved supply-demand balance and enhanced profitability [11] Military Equipment Sector Insights - The defense and military sector maintains a high level of activity, driven by domestic needs and international trade opportunities [12] - The ongoing modernization and technological advancements in military equipment are anticipated to provide new growth momentum [12] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may see improvements post-holiday, with a focus on structural opportunities in the tech sector [5][13] - The current bull market is supported by several factors, including improved market expectations, ongoing capital market reforms, and sustained inflows of long-term funds [14][15][16][18]