Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline during the Asian trading session, trading below the $4,350 mark after reaching a near seven-week high, primarily due to profit-taking and a short-term rebound in the US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent US employment data has led to adjustments in market expectations regarding future policy environments, with some traders anticipating a more accommodative policy path if economic data continues to signal a slowdown [3] - The changing international landscape, particularly Venezuela's naval escort measures under external pressure, has increased regional uncertainty, which historically boosts interest in safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The market is focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations for November's overall CPI year-on-year at 3.1% and core CPI at 3.0% [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Perspectives - There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy adjustments, with some members advocating for a return to a more neutral stance under appropriate conditions, while others express caution until inflation shows significant decline [4] - Following the release of employment data, market expectations for a policy adjustment next month increased from 22% to 31% [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - The mid-term structure of gold remains relatively positive, with prices above the 100-day exponential moving average and the Bollinger Bands expanding [4] - If gold prices form a strong bullish candlestick and break above the upper Bollinger Band at $4,352, there is potential to test the $4,381 high and approach the psychological level of $4,400 [4] - Conversely, if prices weaken and fall below the December 17 low of $4,300, further declines may occur, with attention on the December 16 low of $4,271 and the 100-day exponential moving average around $4,233 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Futures on the federal funds rate indicate an increased likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pause its easing cycle at the upcoming policy meeting in January [1] Group 1 - The futures market reflects a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The focus is on the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, which is a key indicator of liquidity in the financial system [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate futures have increased by 6 basis points, suggesting a potential rate cut of 65 basis points within the year [1] Group 2 - The rise in interest rate futures reflects market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [1] - The anticipated rate cut could influence various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and financial services [1] - Investors may adjust their strategies in response to these expectations, potentially leading to shifts in capital allocation across different industries [1]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025. 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. The additional tariffs under Executive Orders 14259 of April 8, 2025, and 14266 of April 9, 2025, will be cancelled [2]. - From January to April this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history, reaching 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8% [2]. - The recent Sino - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs [2]. - One month ago, the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates stable in the first half of this year was only one - fifth in the futures market. Now, the probability that there will be no interest rate cut before the end of June is about 90% [3]. 2. Key Commodities to Watch - Key commodities to watch include crude oil, fuel oil, glass, coking coal, and iron ore [4]. 3. Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.64% increase, precious metals 30.70%, oilseeds and fats 11.60%, soft commodities 2.71%, non - ferrous metals 19.44%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 13.06%, energy 2.57%, chemicals 12.81%, grains 1.76%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.71% [7]. 4. Asset Performance - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.82%, a monthly increase of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.52%. Other indices such as the Nikkei 225, UK FTSE 100, and various domestic and international indices also had their respective performance data [8][9][10]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative performance in terms of daily, monthly, and year - to - date changes [9]. - **Commodities**: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and other commodities had different performance in daily, monthly, and year - to - date terms [9]. - **Other**: The US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had their respective performance data [9]. 5. Stock Market Risk Preference - Data on the risk premium of the Wande All - A (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemicals), Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 were presented [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market indicates a strong belief that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the short term, with a significant shift in sentiment compared to previous months [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - A month ago, the futures market reflected only a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve would maintain stable interest rates in the first half of the year [1] - Concerns over trade policy chaos were previously expected to weaken the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative policy [1] - Currently, the probability of no rate cut by the end of June is approximately 90% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures have further reduced expectations for rate cuts, leading to a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury futures by 9 points [1] Group 1 - The reduction in rate cut expectations indicates a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [1] - The decline in 10-year Treasury futures suggests a potential increase in yields, reflecting investor reactions to the updated outlook on interest rates [1]