Core Viewpoint - Polypropylene futures showed a slight decline of 0.17%, closing at 7062.00 yuan, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Ningzheng Futures predicts that the PP01 contract will experience short-term fluctuations due to increased polypropylene production and overall ample supply, with commercial inventory rising above levels seen in the same period over the past two years [1] - Guantong Futures also anticipates recent fluctuations in the PP market, suggesting a 09-01 reverse spread strategy, citing limited new orders and weak downstream purchasing intentions [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in polypropylene production capacity, particularly with the upcoming launch of CNOOC's Ningbo Daxie PP plant in August, contributes to the supply side, while downstream recovery remains slow due to seasonal weather conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's upcoming release of a new plan for ten key industries, including petrochemicals, aims to stabilize growth, although no concrete policies have yet been implemented in the polypropylene sector [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of polypropylene futures fluctuated in the range of 7,025 - 7,120 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from last week's close [6]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown of plants such as Yanchang Zhongmei, this week's production decreased by 1.96% month - on - month to 773,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.86% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.27% month - on - month to 48.78%. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 785,100 tons, which is at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years [6]. - In July, the overhaul capacity of PP plants remains high, but considering the large production scale from June to July, the overall supply pressure in the industry is expected to be relatively high. Next week, affected by the shutdown of plants such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Tianjin Bohua, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline slightly. The off - season atmosphere in the downstream is strong, and the number of product order days mainly decreases. The operating rate of PP downstream industries may continue to decline slightly. Overseas demand has limited improvement. In terms of cost, the overall supply and demand of global crude oil is weak, and short - term geopolitical intensification is limited, so international oil prices are under pressure. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the support around 7,030 and the pressure around 7,140 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: The main contract of polypropylene futures fluctuated in the range of 7,025 - 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from last week [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, demand weakened, and inventory showed different trends. Cost and profit also changed, with oil - based and PDH - based profits improving, while coal - based profits shrinking [6]. - **Outlook**: In July, supply pressure is high, downstream demand is weak, and cost is under pressure. PP2509 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main contract fluctuated, and trading volume decreased [8]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The main position changed little, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased slightly [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 monthly spreads weakened slightly, while the 5 - 9 monthly spread strengthened. The L - PP spread strengthened slightly [20][25]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The domestic PP price in East China was around 7,170 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basis**: The basis shrank, and the futures market was at a discount [34]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Energy Prices**: Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly, and coal prices rose slightly [38]. - **Propane Price**: The CIF price of propane was 545 US dollars/ton, and the spot price in Shandong was 6,610 yuan/ton [44]. - **Methanol Price**: The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased to 2,470 yuan/ton [50]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP plants of petrochemical enterprises decreased, and the total inventory decreased [53][56]. - **Cost and Profit**: Oil - based costs decreased, coal - based costs increased slightly, and PDH - based costs decreased. Oil - based and PDH - based profits improved, while coal - based profits shrank [60][65][68]. - **Import and Export**: PP import was at a loss, and the import window was closed [77]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased. In May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 5.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of export value was - 2.0% [81][86]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main PP contract was 13.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 10.32% [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PP2509 shows a weak and fluctuating trend, closing at 7,070 yuan/ton. Supply - side: Last week, new capacity of Zhenhai Refining was put into operation, and the impact of maintenance devices increased. Production increased by 0.23% to 789,200 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.54% to 79.30%. Demand - side: The average downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.58% to 49.05%. Inventory: PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.23% to 785,800 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In early July, more PP devices are expected to stop, and production and capacity utilization are expected to decline. In the long - term, supply pressure from new capacity remains. The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the PP downstream operating rate may continue to decline slightly. Overseas demand is seasonally weak, with limited support. Cost - wise, geopolitical factors have less impact, and weak global demand pressures international oil prices. PP has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a neutral main basis. In the short - term, PP2509 is expected to fluctuate, with daily K - line support around 7,050 and pressure around 7,150 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) is 7,070, down 33; 1 - month contract is 7,012, down 29; 5 - month contract is 6,999, down 20; 9 - month contract is 7,070, down 33. - 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) is 218,846, down 4,797; 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) is 425,759, up 497. - 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) is 410,053, down 1,949; 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚丙烯(日,手) is 478,139, up 8,778; 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) is - 68,086, down 10,727. - 仓单数量:聚丙烯PP(日,手) is 7,404, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 909; PP(均聚注塑):CFR远东:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 854, both unchanged. - PP(拉丝级):浙江:完税自提价(日,元/吨) is 7,220, down 5 [2]. 3.3上游情况 - 丙烯:CFR中国(日,美元/吨) is 796, down 5; 丙烷:远东:到岸价(CFR)(日,美元/吨) is 558, up 15. - FOB:石脑油:新加坡(日,美元/桶) is 61.34, up 0.12; CFR:石脑油:日本(日,美元/吨) is 569.75, up 1 [2]. 3.4产业情况 - 开工率:聚丙烯(PP):石化企业(周,%) is 79.3, down 0.54 [2]. 3.5下游情况 - 开工率:聚丙烯:平均(日,%) is 49.05, down 0.58; 开工率:聚丙烯:塑编(日,%) is 43.2, down 0.36; 开工率:聚丙烯:注塑(日,%) is 55.43, down 0.35; 开工率:聚丙烯:BOPP(日,%) is 60.41, unchanged; 开工率:聚丙烯:PP管材(日,%) is 36.6, up 0.54; 开工率:聚丙烯:胶带母卷(日,%) is 48.95, down 0.59; 开工率:聚丙烯:PP无纺布(日,%) is 36.28, down 0.37; 开工率:聚丙烯:CPP(日,%) is 56.38, down 0.62 [2]. 3.6期权市场 - 历史波动率:20日:聚丙烯(日,%) is 13.61, down 0.1; 历史波动率:40日:聚丙烯(日,%) is 12.27, up 0.04. - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚丙烯(日,%) is 10.79, unchanged; 平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚丙烯(日,%) is 10.79, unchanged [2]. 3.7行业消息 - From June 20th to 26th, domestic polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.30%, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period. - From June 20th to 26th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. - As of June 25th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 785,800 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons from the previous period, a 4.23% decrease from the previous period [2].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 聚丙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 价格：伊以冲突进一步激化，带动国际油价上涨。受此影响，本周聚丙烯期货拉涨明显。截至2025年6月 20日收盘，PP2509合约报收于7242元/吨，较上周收盘上涨2.16%。 基本面：供应端，本周联泓新科、独山子石化、大庆海鼎装置短停，徐州海天、国能包头装置重启，PP产 量环比+1.52%至78.74万吨，产能利用率环比+1.20%至79.84%。需求端，本周PP下游平均开工率环比- 0.34%至49.63%。库存方面，本周PP商业库存环比+4.23%至82.05万吨，处于近三年同期中性水平。前 期停车装置陆续重启，生产企业供应增加，厂库环比+4.52%；现货价格上涨，部分中间商逢低拿货，贸 易商库存环比+6.18%；出口成交减少，资源向港口流动减少，港口库存环比-0.77%。成本利润方面，本 周油制PP成本上涨至7884.28元/吨，油制亏损加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PP2509 fell and then rebounded, closing at 7,125 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's PP output increased by 2.36% week-on-week to 775,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.63% week-on-week to 78.64%. On the demand side, last week's average downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.04% week-on-week to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, last week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% week-on-week to 786,000 tons, at a neutral level compared to the same period in the past three years. This week, units such as Zhongying Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical are scheduled for maintenance, and output and capacity utilization are expected to decline week-on-week, but the situation of loose spot supply is difficult to change. During the off - season for downstream industries, demand remains weak, and the downstream operating rate shows a slight downward trend. Overseas demand is seasonally weak with limited support. In terms of cost, although many countries have expressed willingness to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict, the conflict has intensified recently, and international oil prices are fluctuating widely at a high level. In the short term, fundamentals have little impact on the PP futures market, and PP2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. Technically, pay attention to the support around 7,050 and the resistance around 7,190 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main PP futures contract was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,057 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,043 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The trading volume of PP was 314,038 lots, down 84,174 lots; the open interest was 455,542 lots, down 4,930 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 398,839 lots, down 5,490 lots; the short positions were 466,479 lots, down 9,147 lots; the net long positions were - 67,640 lots, up 3,657 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,560 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - warehouse self - pick - up price of PP (wire drawing grade) in Zhejiang was 7,200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 761 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Far East price of propane was 595 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 67.9 US dollars/barrel, up 0.79 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 624.13 US dollars/ton, up 3.63 US dollars [2] Industrial Situation - The operating rate of PP in petrochemical enterprises was 78.64%, up 1.63 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of PP was 49.97%, down 0.04 percentage points; the operating rate of PP in plastic weaving was 44.4%, down 0.3 percentage points; in injection molding was 56.09%, unchanged; in BOPP was 60.41%, unchanged; in PP pipes was 36.03%, down 0.1 percentage points; in tape mother rolls was 49.52%, down 1.22 percentage points; in PP non - woven fabrics was 37.15%, up 0.12 percentage points; in CPP was 57.63%, up 0.25 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PP was 9.48%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.97%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 11.49%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 11.45%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, domestic PP output was 775,600 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period, and the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, up 1.63 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream PP industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of Chinese PP was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PP2509 is expected to show a fluctuating trend in the short - term, with support around 7020 and resistance around 7150. Supply - side: last week's PP production increased by 7.22% to 77.98 million tons, and capacity utilization rose by 5.37% to 79.75%. This week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline due to device shutdowns. Demand - side: last week, the average downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19% to 49.50%. The US tariff impact remains, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. However, the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks statement is beneficial for downstream plastic product exports. Cost - side: trade tensions have eased, and international oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation recently [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) is 7074, up 44; 1 - month contract is 7023, up 45; 5 - month contract is 7139, up 39; 9 - month contract is 7074, up 44. - Volume of polypropylene (PP) (daily, lots) is 418406, up 18569; open interest is 446167, down 11519. - Top 20 long positions: 327948, down 5148; top 20 short positions: 356401, down 5612; top 20 net long positions: - 28453, up 464. - Warehouse receipt quantity: 4068, down 8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 919, unchanged; PP(均聚注塑):CFR远东:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 839. - PP(拉丝级):浙江:完税自提价(日,元/吨) is 7240, down 10 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Propylene: CFR China (daily, US dollars/ton) is 801, unchanged; propane: FOB Far East (daily, US dollars/ton) is 569, down 10. - FOB: Naphtha: Singapore (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 61.76, up 1.54; CFR: Naphtha: Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) is 569, up 14.5 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises (weekly, %) is 79.75, up 4.23 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Average operating rate of polypropylene (daily, %) is 49.5, down 0.19. - Operating rate of polypropylene in plastic weaving (daily, %) is 44.8, down 0.2; in injection molding (daily, %) is 56, down 0.2; in BOPP (daily, %) is 57.64, down 1.93; in PP pipes (daily, %) is 36.93, down 0.8; in tape master rolls (daily, %) is 50.72, down 0.07; in PP non - woven fabrics (daily, %) is 37.73, up 0.13; in CPP (daily, %) is 50.5, up 1.62 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene (daily, %) is 8.53, down 1.61; 40 - day historical volatility is 10.19, up 0.07. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polypropylene (daily, %) is 11.35, down 0.67; implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.35, down 0.67 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days. Considering the previous 20% tariff imposed by the US on fentanyl, the final tariff rate imposed by the US on China is 30%. - From May 2 to 8, China's polypropylene production was 77.98 million tons, a 7.22% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 5.37% to 79.75%. - From May 2 to 8, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 49.50%. - As of May 7, China's total commercial inventory of polypropylene was 89.70 million tons, an increase of 12.66 million tons from the previous period, a 16.43% increase [2].