Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market is experiencing a decline in downstream operating rates, leading to supply pressure and potential price fluctuations at low levels [1] Group 1: Downstream Operations - The PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 48.78%, which is lower than the historical average for this time of year [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving fell by 1.0 percentage points to 42.2%, with a slight reduction in orders, although it remains higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has impacted PP downstream product exports, while propane imports for polypropylene production are restricted [1] - New maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical's third line has caused the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, indicating a neutral to low level [1] - The production ratio for standard filament has decreased to approximately 28.5%, with inventory levels remaining neutral compared to previous years [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Following OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, oil prices have seen a rebound after a decline [1] - The southern region is entering a rainy and hot season, leading to slow recovery in downstream operations, reduced plastic weaving activity, and limited new orders [1] - The market is expected to see low-level fluctuations in PP prices, with a need to monitor global trade war developments [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market - The PP2509 futures contract experienced a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 7040 yuan/ton and a maximum of 7080 yuan/ton, closing at 7078 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - Spot prices for PP in various regions have mostly declined, with filament prices reported between 6950 and 7250 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Raw Material Prices - As of July 4, the weekly inventory of PP in petrochemical companies decreased by 15,000 tons to 765,000 tons, which is lower than the same period last year [1] - The Brent crude oil September contract rose to $70 per barrel, while the CFR propylene price in China fell by $10 per ton to $785 per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict drove up international oil prices, leading to a significant increase in polypropylene (PP) futures this week. As of June 20, 2025, the PP2509 contract closed at 7,242 yuan/ton, up 2.16% from last week's close [6]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the PP output increased by 1.52% week - on - week to 787,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.20% to 79.84%. On the demand side, the average downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.34% week - on - week to 49.63%. In terms of inventory, the PP commercial inventory increased by 4.23% week - on - week to 820,500 tons [6]. - Looking ahead, next week, some plants are planned for maintenance and restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline slightly. The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the PP downstream operating rate is expected to continue a slight downward trend. In the short term, the cost side is still the main influencing factor of PP prices, and the PP2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 7,200 - 7,350 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,242 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, up 2.16% from last week [6]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: PP output increased by 1.52% to 787,400 tons, and capacity utilization rose by 1.20% to 79.84% [6]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.34% to 49.63% [6]. - **Inventory**: PP commercial inventory increased by 4.23% to 820,500 tons. Factory inventory increased by 4.52%, trader inventory increased by 6.18%, and port inventory decreased by 0.77% [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of oil - based PP rose to 7,884.28 yuan/ton with deeper losses; the coal - based cost remained stable at 6,214.60 yuan/ton with wider profits; the PDH - based cost rose to 7,937.62 yuan/ton with deeper losses [6]. - **Outlook**: Next week, output and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. The downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly. The PP2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 7,200 - 7,350 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The PP futures main contract rose, but the trading volume decreased [8]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The main contract's position fluctuated slightly, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased slightly [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 monthly spreads strengthened slightly, while the 1 - 5 monthly spread weakened slightly [20][26]. - **L - PP Spread**: The L - PP spread strengthened [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The domestic PP price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basis**: The basis shrank, and the futures market was at a discount [36]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Energy Price**: Crude oil prices rose significantly, and coal prices rose slightly [40]. - **Propane Price**: The propane arrival price was 593 US dollars/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 6,485 yuan/ton [46]. - **Methanol Price**: The methanol price in Jiangsu rose to 2,765 yuan/ton [51]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - **Supply** - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance Loss**: The PP plant operating rate of petrochemical enterprises increased week - on - week [54]. - **Output and Inventory**: The total PP inventory increased week - on - week [57]. - **Cost and Profit** - **Cost**: The cost of oil - based PP increased significantly, the coal - based cost increased slightly, and the PDH - based cost increased [62][67]. - **Profit**: The loss of oil - based and PDH - based processes deepened, while the coal - based profit widened slightly [70][76]. - **Import and Export**: The PP import profit was in loss, and the import window was closed [80]. - **Demand** - **Downstream Price and Operating Rate**: The downstream operating rate of PP decreased week - on - week [84]. - **Plastic Products Output and Export Value**: In May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic products output was 5.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of export value was - 2.0% [89]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the PP main contract was 10.22%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 11.98% [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends, with aluminum alloy rising over 4% and styrene (EB) rising over 2%. In terms of declines, stainless steel (SS), zinc, urea, and nickel fell over 1% [4]. - The macro - environment has some interference on copper prices, but supply supports copper prices, and copper prices will continue to operate at a high level. Aluminum prices will also remain high in the short - term despite the weakening cost support. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and lithium prices will have a narrow - range oscillation. Iron ore, coking coal, and other commodities will have short - term oscillations [6][8][10][13]. 3. Summary by Contracts Metal Contracts - **沪铜2507合约 (Shanghai Copper 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated slightly down today. Macro factors interfere, but supply supports. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 78,500 [6]. - **沪铝2507合约 (Shanghai Aluminum 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated and closed down. Alumina price dropped, weakening cost support, but demand is expected to pick up. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 20,000 [8]. - **沪铅2507合约 (Shanghai Lead 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Considering the weakening downstream demand and stable supply, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. Resistance is 17,200, and support is 16,400 [10]. - **碳酸锂2507合约 (Lithium Carbonate 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated up today. Downstream production in June exceeded expectations, but supply is expected to increase, and the fundamentals remain in surplus. Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, short - term wait - and - see. Resistance is 64,000 [13]. - **沪镍2507合约 (Shanghai Nickel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Upstream price support, but demand is weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 125,000, and support is 120,000 [22]. - **不锈钢2507合约 (Stainless Steel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Production decreased, and downstream expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 13,500, and support is 12,500 [23]. Energy and Chemical Contracts - **铁矿2509合约 (Iron Ore 2509 Contract)**: The main contract dropped. Iron water production decreased for three consecutive weeks, and demand expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 700, and support is 600 [15]. - **焦煤2509合约 (Coking Coal 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. There is an increased policy risk for Mongolian coal exports, but supply is still loose. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 800, and support is 600 [16]. - **焦炭2509合约 (Coke 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. Cost support weakened, and three rounds of price cuts were implemented. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 1,500, and support is 1,100 [18]. - **螺纹2510合约 (Rebar 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Market trading weakened, and iron water production decreased. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 3,100, and support is 2,900 [20]. - **天胶2509合约 (Natural Rubber 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly rose within the day, but the increase was limited. The short - term market lacks major positive support, and the price will oscillate at a low level [25]. - **PTA2509合约 (PTA 2509 Contract)**: Continued the previous oscillation pattern within the day. The current supply - demand fundamentals have little change, and the market follows the trend of crude oil [28]. - **EG2509合约 (Ethylene Glycol 2509 Contract)**: Continued to oscillate at a low level within the day. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the price oscillates around the 40 - day moving average [30]. - **塑料2509合约 (Plastic 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The short - term market may test the pressure of the 20 - day and 40 - day moving averages. If it cannot break through effectively, it will oscillate at a low level [32]. - **PP2509合约 (Polypropylene 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The current market lacks major positive guidance, and the price will oscillate at a low level [35]. - **纯碱2509合约 (Soda Ash 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.41% within the day and reduced positions by 64,797 lots. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the sustainability needs to be observed [36]. - **玻璃2509合约 (Glass 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.7% within the day and reduced positions by 16,128 lots. The environmental protection coal - to - gas requirement in Shahe is unfavorable to production. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the total production capacity of the relevant devices is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [40]. - **尿素2509合约 (Urea 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 1.24% within the day and increased positions by 2,976 lots. The export is settled, and the positive factors are exhausted. The price will maintain a bearish trend [42]. - **烧碱2509合约 (Caustic Soda 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it oscillated within the day and reduced positions by 17,752 lots. Short - term oscillation and decline [43]. Agricultural Contracts - **豆粕2509合约 (Soybean Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to increase positions by 27,000 lots and closed up 0.66%. The supply of soybean meal continues to increase, but the procurement enthusiasm of middle - and - downstream enterprises is average. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 3,000 [45]. - **菜粕2509合约 (Rapeseed Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of rapeseed meal increased positions by more than 10,000 lots for the first time in a month and closed up 1.08%. As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China decreased to 14,000 tons. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 2,700 [47]. - **豆油2509合约 (Soybean Oil 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly oscillated. The main contract reached a more than two - week high of 7,796 yuan/ton before noon and then oscillated down, closing down 0.05%. The high soybean crushing volume of oil mills leads to large soybean oil output, and the supply is expected to be loose. Support: 7,600, Pressure: 8,300 [50]. - **棕榈油2509合约 (Palm Oil 2509 Contract)**: The BMD crude palm oil futures declined on Tuesday. During the production - increasing season, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased again in May, but the export increased more than expected. Affected by the double - increase of production and inventory, the futures oscillated weakly. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 9,000 [53]. - **菜油2509合约 (Rapeseed Oil 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated today, and the main contract closed up 0.40%. As of the 23rd week, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 882,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 75.42%. Support: 8,900, Pressure: 9,700 [55]. - **玉米2507合约 (Corn 2507 Contract)**: Dalian corn futures continued to rise today, reaching a one - month high. The main contract closed at 2,379 points, up 1.19%. The news of Henan starting the minimum purchase price implementation plan for wheat continued to boost the corn futures price. Support: 2,200, Pressure: 2,450 [56]. - **生猪2509合约 (Live Pig 2509 Contract)**: The main 09 contract rose 1.08% today. The supply is in the capacity - realization period, and the pressure of short - term supply increases. After the festival, the demand declines, and the fundamentals are under pressure. However, the downside space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The predicted range for the next trading day is 13,550 - 13,650. Support: 13,500, Pressure: 14,000 [57][58]. - **苹果2510合约 (Apple 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated within the day, with a decline of 0.46%. The spot market faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and the spot price is stable in the short - term. The expectation of a large - scale production reduction is not high, and the price center moves down. Support: 7,500, Pressure: 8,000 [60]. - **鸡蛋2507合约 (Egg 2507 Contract)**: Rose 0.25% today. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply continues to be released. After the festival, the demand declines, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. It is expected to oscillate weakly. The predicted range for the next trading day is 2,830 - 2,860. Support: 2,800, Pressure: 3,000 [61]. - **棉花2509合约 (Cotton 2509 Contract)**: The CF2509 contract closed up 0.41%. By the end of May, China's cotton commercial inventory was still decreasing but remained higher than last year. If the inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation about inventory in the third quarter. The downstream operating rate has declined again, and the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is high. Pay attention to the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report in June. Support: 13,000, Pressure: 13,500 [64]. - **白糖2509合约 (Sugar 2509 Contract)**: The SR2509 contract closed down 0.24%. The decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of May was far less than expected, providing no upward drive for raw sugar. Chinese sugar - making groups sold well in April and have a willingness to support prices, but there is an expectation of increased imports after June, which may suppress the Zhengzhou sugar futures price. Support: 5,750, Pressure: 5,850 [66]. - **花生2510合约 (Peanut 2510 Contract)**: The PK2510 contract closed down 0.29%. The sowing rhythm and reduced import volume may affect the supply of the 10 - contract, but peanuts are still in the expansion - planting cycle, and the supply is not tight. The height of the unilateral rebound is restricted. Support: 8,300, Pressure: 8,500 [67]. - **原木2507合约 (Log 2507 Contract)**: The LG2507 contract closed down 0.06%. The fundamentals of logs have no prominent contradictions, and domestic traders are generally at a loss due to the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets. Pay attention to the spot prices at home and abroad and the arrival rhythm of subsequent shipments and port pressure. The price has no upward drive for now and is expected to oscillate. Support: 750, Pressure: 800 [68][69]. Energy - Related Contracts - **原油2507合约 (Crude Oil 2507 Contract)**: The SC2507 contract rose 1.27%. The increase in production of OPEC+ countries in July is 411,000 barrels per day, which is in line with expectations. It is in a state of less - than - expected negative impact and may continue to rebound in the short - term. Support: 400, Pressure: 470 [70]. - **燃料油2507合约 (Fuel Oil 2507 Contract)**: The FU2507 contract closed up 0.85%. Supported by seasonal power - generation demand and the strong downstream marine fuel oil market, the Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short - term. However, the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed, and the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in May will put pressure on the operating rate of secondary processing units. Support: 2,500, Pressure: 3,000 [71]. Shipping Contract - **集运欧线2508合约 (Container Shipping to Europe 2508 Contract)**: On June 10, the 8 - month contract of container shipping to Europe dropped 0.95%, reporting 2,042.1 points. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index rebounded significantly. The settlement freight index of European routes rose to 1,622.81 points, a month - on - month increase of 29.5%; the settlement freight index of US - West routes rose to 2,185.08 points, an increase of 27.2%. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen [73].