1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polyolefins is trending weakly with oscillations [1][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For polypropylene, the external environment is volatile, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and the overall supply is in excess. Although there is optimism about improved trade - war situations, the high - level should be treated with caution. The key to future seasonal reversal may be the recovery of Sino - US seasonal demand driven by the Fed's interest - rate cuts [6] - For polyethylene, the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a retracement of the premium caused by import risks. The demand is weak, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. The supply pressure will gradually increase in Q3 2025, and attention should be paid to the spread changes between different types of polyethylene [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Polypropylene is trending weakly with oscillations. The external environment brings uncertainty, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and export growth is limited [5][6] - Linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is also showing a weakly oscillating trend. The macro environment affects the price premium, and supply - demand imbalance exists [7][8] - Core data shows that the spot price of both polypropylene and polyethylene has decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The basis and monthly spread of both have weakened. The polypropylene's average capacity utilization has decreased, while polyethylene's has increased. The polyolefin inventory has increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year [9] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price and Spread**: The non - standard price spread is not conducive to price rebound [17] - **Supply - Side**: New domestic production capacity is being put into operation, and more manufacturers are producing copolymer products with higher profits. The short - term overall start - up rate has declined, and there are still many overhauls in July, but new production capacity offsets the support from overhauls. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 785.5 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [20][22][26] - **Inventory**: The production inventory has decreased, while the trader inventory has increased. The total commercial inventory has decreased slightly, mainly due to more upstream overhauls and lower downstream purchasing enthusiasm [27][31] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The profit of oil - based manufacturers has declined, while the profit of PDH - based production has increased [32][37] - **Downstream**: The BOPP start - up rate remains flat, with fewer orders and more finished - product inventory. The profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape master - roll start - up rate, orders, and the start - up rate and orders of plastic - weaving and non - woven fabric industries have all declined. The CPP start - up rate and orders have slightly decreased [39][42][47] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Spread**: The short - term L - LL spread is declining, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL spread has expanded in 2025, but may oscillate later [62][65] - **Supply - Side**: The start - up rate has decreased, but the output has increased. The expected overhaul loss in July will be less than that in June. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [66][69][70] - **Inventory**: The production - enterprise inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [72] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the profit of oil - based production devices has declined [76][82] - **Downstream**: The start - up rate and orders of the agricultural film industry have decreased. The start - up rate and orders of the packaging film industry have increased. The start - up rates of the pipe and hollow industries are lower than the same period last year [84][85][86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and the futures market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The petrochemical inventory is accumulating, while downstream factories have strong restocking efforts, leading to a slow reduction in upstream factory inventory and trader inventory. During the petrochemical plant maintenance season, there are many planned maintenance devices, and several previously shut - down devices are expected to restart soon, resulting in an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. It is currently the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film operating rate continues to decline, and the operating rates of other end - users fluctuate weakly. End - user factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The international crude oil price is on the rise, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. There is still cost - side support for PDH - made PP, and with the decline in propane prices, the operating rate of PDH - made PP has increased slightly [2]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,078 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,932 yuan/ton (+7). The LL spot price in North China is 7,090 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 7,070 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China is 12 yuan/ton (-12), in East China is 22 yuan/ton (-12), and the PP basis in East China is 138 yuan/ton (-17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 77.4% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 77.0% (+1.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 207.1 yuan/ton (-80.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 52.9 yuan/ton (-80.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 164.9 yuan/ton (+7.4) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (+52.8), and the PP export profit is 14.6 US dollars/ton (-1.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 12.9% (-0.1%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.9% (+0.3%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.7% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (+0.7%) [1]. II. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish on plastics [3]. - **Inter - period**: No inter - period strategy is provided [3].

聚烯烃：后期仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年4月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 PP：后期仍有压力 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 首先、贸易战拖累全球经济，OPEC扩产导致原油价格大幅下跌，大概率会导致PP价格走弱。需求端下 游订单恢复近尾声，供应端4月中旬后检修装置减少，复产装置逐步增多，供应压力将逐步恢复，市场压 力较大； ◆ 第二、站在中期角度看，供应端新增产能压力主要集中在上半年，而需求端虽有春季回来后的市场短暂 恢复，但总量存在隐患，一方面是外部贸易战因素，另一方面是国内加工端高产能、低利润结构难以持 续支撑市场持续好转，这种压力在上半年可 ...