国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：跌价部分标品转产非标，但检修有限供应宽松，压制价格 | | 2025年总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工82.6%/-%。节中扬子、中韩、 | | --- | --- | | | 茂名重启，供应再度增加。Q4检修计划同比略低，预计供应维持宽松状态，12月中旬以来福建联合、内蒙、宁夏宝丰约130万吨全密度产能转产HD, | | 供应 | 占比约3.3%，且外盘乙烯裂解利润持续承压，关注后续规模及对PE端衍生品影响。 | | | 进口中东、美国货源有因运力周转不 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-17 国际油价大幅走弱，盘面低位整理 单边：观望；短期底部偏弱震荡为主 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 风险 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6543元/吨（-14），PP主力合约收盘价为6256元/吨（+2），LL华北现货为6500 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-43元/吨（+14），LL 华东基差为37元/吨（+14）， PP华东基差为-56元/吨（-2）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为231.1元/吨（+47.6），PP油制生产利润为-388.9元/吨（+47.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-774.2元/吨（+43.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-105.0元/吨（+7.1），PP进口利润为-273.0元/吨（+49.4），PP出口利润为-11.5美元/吨（-0.9）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49. ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand, with supply pressure remaining difficult to ease. The market's cost - side support is weak, and it is expected to operate under pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and position changes of plastic (L2601, L2605, L2609) and PP (PP2601, PP2605, PP2609) futures contracts are presented. For example, L2601 closed at 6,929 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.3%), and PP2601 closed at 6,618 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.42%) [5][6]. - Market Situation: Despite the slight increase in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and downstream buyers mostly waited and watched. The supply - demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continued to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises increased maintenance due to lower - than - expected peak - season demand, the expected maintenance losses from September to November will narrow, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. After the holiday, social inventories increased, and the demand in October had some resilience but with limited new orders. The downstream mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the inventory - removal pressure was high. The upward revision of the crude oil supply forecast may lead to accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and cost - side support is difficult to find [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On October 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 800,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,880 - 7,170 yuan/ton, 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,130 - 7,600 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6,200 - 6,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene weakened, and production enterprises sold at discounted prices with a poor trading atmosphere [7]. - PP Market: The PP market was mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,480 - 6,570 yuan/ton, 6,460 - 6,630 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not detailed in the text [9][12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polyolefins is trending weakly with oscillations [1][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For polypropylene, the external environment is volatile, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and the overall supply is in excess. Although there is optimism about improved trade - war situations, the high - level should be treated with caution. The key to future seasonal reversal may be the recovery of Sino - US seasonal demand driven by the Fed's interest - rate cuts [6] - For polyethylene, the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a retracement of the premium caused by import risks. The demand is weak, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. The supply pressure will gradually increase in Q3 2025, and attention should be paid to the spread changes between different types of polyethylene [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Polypropylene is trending weakly with oscillations. The external environment brings uncertainty, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and export growth is limited [5][6] - Linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is also showing a weakly oscillating trend. The macro environment affects the price premium, and supply - demand imbalance exists [7][8] - Core data shows that the spot price of both polypropylene and polyethylene has decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The basis and monthly spread of both have weakened. The polypropylene's average capacity utilization has decreased, while polyethylene's has increased. The polyolefin inventory has increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year [9] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price and Spread**: The non - standard price spread is not conducive to price rebound [17] - **Supply - Side**: New domestic production capacity is being put into operation, and more manufacturers are producing copolymer products with higher profits. The short - term overall start - up rate has declined, and there are still many overhauls in July, but new production capacity offsets the support from overhauls. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 785.5 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [20][22][26] - **Inventory**: The production inventory has decreased, while the trader inventory has increased. The total commercial inventory has decreased slightly, mainly due to more upstream overhauls and lower downstream purchasing enthusiasm [27][31] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The profit of oil - based manufacturers has declined, while the profit of PDH - based production has increased [32][37] - **Downstream**: The BOPP start - up rate remains flat, with fewer orders and more finished - product inventory. The profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape master - roll start - up rate, orders, and the start - up rate and orders of plastic - weaving and non - woven fabric industries have all declined. The CPP start - up rate and orders have slightly decreased [39][42][47] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Spread**: The short - term L - LL spread is declining, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL spread has expanded in 2025, but may oscillate later [62][65] - **Supply - Side**: The start - up rate has decreased, but the output has increased. The expected overhaul loss in July will be less than that in June. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [66][69][70] - **Inventory**: The production - enterprise inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [72] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the profit of oil - based production devices has declined [76][82] - **Downstream**: The start - up rate and orders of the agricultural film industry have decreased. The start - up rate and orders of the packaging film industry have increased. The start - up rates of the pipe and hollow industries are lower than the same period last year [84][85][86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and the futures market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The petrochemical inventory is accumulating, while downstream factories have strong restocking efforts, leading to a slow reduction in upstream factory inventory and trader inventory. During the petrochemical plant maintenance season, there are many planned maintenance devices, and several previously shut - down devices are expected to restart soon, resulting in an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. It is currently the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film operating rate continues to decline, and the operating rates of other end - users fluctuate weakly. End - user factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The international crude oil price is on the rise, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. There is still cost - side support for PDH - made PP, and with the decline in propane prices, the operating rate of PDH - made PP has increased slightly [2]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,078 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,932 yuan/ton (+7). The LL spot price in North China is 7,090 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 7,070 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China is 12 yuan/ton (-12), in East China is 22 yuan/ton (-12), and the PP basis in East China is 138 yuan/ton (-17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 77.4% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 77.0% (+1.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 207.1 yuan/ton (-80.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 52.9 yuan/ton (-80.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 164.9 yuan/ton (+7.4) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (+52.8), and the PP export profit is 14.6 US dollars/ton (-1.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 12.9% (-0.1%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.9% (+0.3%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.7% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (+0.7%) [1]. II. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish on plastics [3]. - **Inter - period**: No inter - period strategy is provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PP will face continuous pressure in the later stage. Factors include the impact of the trade - war on the global economy and OPEC's production increase leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which is likely to cause PP prices to weaken. The downstream order recovery is nearing its end, and the supply pressure will gradually resume after mid - April [5][6]. - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short term. The macro - policy changes, especially the tariff war between the US and China, have increased market uncertainty. The tariff increase may affect polyethylene imports and plastic product exports, and the polyethylene market is facing negative feedback on the demand side and cost collapse, but the import issue also provides some support [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - PP: The trade - war drags down the global economy, OPEC's production increase causes a sharp decline in crude oil prices, which may lead to a weakening of PP prices. The downstream order recovery is almost over, and the supply pressure will gradually return after mid - April. In the medium - term, the new production capacity pressure on the supply side is concentrated in the first half of the year, and the total demand has hidden dangers. Although the export market has supported the domestic polyolefin market in recent years, there may be some pressure in the first half of 2025 [6]. - LLDPE: The macro - policy changes, especially the tariff war between the US and China, have increased market uncertainty. The tariff increase may affect polyethylene imports and plastic product exports. In 2025, the new domestic PE production capacity is expected to be 2.15 million tons in the second quarter, and the supply pressure may appear in the third quarter. The demand side may be affected by the trade - war, and the polyethylene market is short - term weak, but the import issue provides some support [7]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Non - standard price difference: The non - standard price difference of polypropylene has flattened, and the market has changed little. In 2025, the trend of non - standard price difference is still uncertain. The first - quarter demand is unlikely to explode, and in the second quarter, if there is an unexpected fiscal expansion in China, the non - standard price difference may expand. However, the trade - war may bring potential negative risks [16][19]. - Production and capacity utilization: The overall short - term start - up of polypropylene has decreased month - on - month, and the supply in April may be relatively loose. The current polypropylene capacity utilization rate has decreased by 0.05% to 76.38%, and the weekly output has decreased by 0.04 tons to 731,600 tons, a decline of 0.05% [20][22]. - Maintenance: April is the peak season for PP device maintenance in the first half of the year, and the planned maintenance is expected to increase [24]. - New production capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polypropylene is 7.005 million tons, with a production capacity increase of 16%. The potential production pressure is still large, especially from the commissioning of several large - scale refinery devices [25]. - Inventory: The production inventory of polypropylene has decreased month - on - month, while the inventory of traders has increased. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises has decreased by 25,300 tons to 616,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the inventory of trader sample enterprises has increased by 8,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.76% [26][30]. - Cost: The crude oil price dropped significantly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the cost of polypropylene will decline [31]. - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene manufacturers have declined. The calculated oil - based PP profit is - 472 yuan/ton, and the PDH device profit is - 798 yuan/ton [37][38]. - Downstream: The start - up of BOPP has remained flat, the order days have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a high level. The profit of BOPP is at a historical low, mainly due to over - capacity. The start - up of tape master rolls has remained flat, and the order situation is still not ideal. The start - up of plastic weaving has rebounded, and the order days have increased. The start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the start - up and order days of CPP have remained flat [39][42][47][50][55][58]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Import and export: In 2024, China imported 2.387 million tons of polyethylene from the US, accounting for 17.23% of the total imports and about 5.7% of the total supply. 46.2% of the products imported from the US are LLDPE. The amount of Chinese plastic products exported to the US in 2024 accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and the proportion has been declining in recent years [66]. - Price difference: The L - LL price difference of polyethylene has declined in the short term. The previous continuous decline of non - standard price difference has suppressed the overall structure of polyethylene, and the high premium of high - pressure to linear is difficult to continue in the medium - term [67][70]. - Production and capacity utilization: The start - up rate and output of polyethylene have increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 82.46%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points from the previous period, and the weekly output has increased by 1.15% to 623,400 tons [71][73]. - Maintenance: The expected maintenance loss of polyethylene in April will decrease compared with March [74]. - New production capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polyethylene is 5.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of 16.8% [75]. - Inventory: The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises and social inventory have both decreased month - on - month. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise samples has decreased by 66,300 tons to 438,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.14%, and the social sample warehouse inventory has decreased by 11,600 tons to 618,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84% [77][80]. - Cost: The crude oil price dropped significantly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the cost of polyethylene will decline [81]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based polyethylene devices has declined. The calculated oil - based profit is - 391 yuan/ton [83][84]. - Downstream: The start - up of agricultural film has increased month - on - month, but the order days have decreased month - on - month. The start - up and order days of packaging film have both decreased. The start - up of pipes and hollow products has rebounded, but the growth rate is relatively slow [85][86][87].