聚烯烃月报 等待需求检验，震荡运行 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2026/2/27 证监许可[2025]75号 PE：高供应与成本支撑博弈，震荡运行 本月回顾 2月塑料震荡偏弱，跌破前低。月初跳空高开15点在7029，随后快速反弹至月内高点7086，转为大幅走弱 ，结束12月23日以来的反弹走势，盘面开始逐步回吐寒潮及地缘溢价。2/9-2/12，节前一周市场波动逐步 降低，盘面在6700至6850横盘震荡；节后累库幅度基本符合预期，但上游检修力度不足，跟随油价冲高后 重回跌势，月底破位下跌，创 近 一个月新低6553，较1月末高点跌幅达8%。全月在6553至7086间运行，振 幅533点。 下月展望 高供应与成本支撑博弈，震荡运行。2月检修力度不足，预计日均产量同比增加13.2%至10.4万吨。根据统 计，3月计划新增检修装置仅为100万吨，预计供给端压力仍存。节后两油库存升至同期中性位置，农膜市 场复工复产缓慢，若3月地膜复苏不及预期，预计产业链仍面临一定的去库压力。总体来看，塑料自身供 需格局依旧偏 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-02-27 下游复工缓慢，去库压力仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6668元/吨（-109），PP主力合约收盘价为6675元/吨（-45），LL华北现货为6580 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6660元/吨（-120），PP华东现货为6650元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-88元/吨（+9）， LL华东基差为-8元/吨（-11）， PP华东基差为-25元/吨（+15）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为88.0%（-0.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（-0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-215.7元/吨（+13.9），PP油制生产利润为-555.7元/吨（+13.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-467.7元/吨（+20.3）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-42.0元/吨（-17.3），PP进口利润为-390.5元/吨（-58.0），PP出口利润为-62.5美元/吨（-8.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为10.1%（-14.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为24.7%（+4.4%），PP下游塑编开工 率为29.3%（+5.2%），PP下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Plastic Part - The supply is expected to increase in January, with some production shifting back to standard products. The futures and spot markets may not continue to resonate. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [5] Polypropylene Part - The valuation has increased, leading some devices to return. The PDH has concentrated maintenance in the first quarter. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is also recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [82][84] 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures prices, spot prices, and various price spreads have changed. The basis has strengthened, and the 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened. The import window has been repaired, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit has been repaired, with significant recent repairs in ethane and externally - purchased ethylene profits [9][13][23][34] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base has increased, with a significant increase in total supply. The current maintenance plan in Q1 is not yet available, and the supply is expected to remain loose. The import volume may remain relatively high at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year [38][40][49] Demand & Inventory - The overall downstream demand is showing signs of decline. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, but the mid - stream inventory reduction has been slow [59][65][77] Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Futures and spot prices, as well as various price spreads, have fluctuated. The basis has strengthened slightly, and the month - spread has fluctuated. The import window is approaching to open, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit is compressed [88][93][100][120] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, the production capacity has increased significantly. The start - up rate has declined recently, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period last year. The subsequent maintenance scale is considerable, and the supply is expected to decrease [128][129][140] Demand & Inventory - The downstream demand is mixed. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, and the oil - based inventory has been significantly reduced [153][160][166]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Plastic**: The supply of plastic is expected to remain loose in 2026, despite some production shifts and minor decreases in supply due to maintenance. The demand from the downstream industries is entering a seasonal off - peak period, with the overall market supply - demand pattern being unfavorable. The price is likely to face pressure before the Spring Festival. The recommended strategies are to take a short position on rebounds in a sideways market, and not to recommend cross - period or cross - variety trading for now [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The polypropylene market is also under price pressure during the off - season. The supply may see marginal changes due to potential PDH plant maintenance, but the overall supply - demand situation is still not optimistic. Similar to plastic, the recommended strategies are to take a short position on rebounds in a sideways market, and not to recommend cross - period or cross - variety trading for now [92][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures and domestic spot prices have shown some fluctuations, with the 5 - 9 month spread strengthening to - 31, and the basis remaining stable. The import window has been restored, and the import profit of LD is at a relatively high level within the year [6][9]. - The upstream prices have different trends: crude oil is in a low - level oscillation, naphtha is weakly stable, ethylene monomer is weakening, and coal prices are slightly rebounding. The overall profit of PE production has been restored, especially for ethane and ethylene procurement [30][36]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity of PE increased by 16%, and the domestic output increased by 18%. The current overall supply is loose. Although there are some maintenance plans in January, the maintenance plans for February and March are limited, and the supply is expected to remain relatively loose [6]. - The import of Middle East and US sources is concentrated in January, and the overall import may increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. Demand & Inventory - The demand from the downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is entering a seasonal off - peak period. The overall demand from downstream industries shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease. The overall inventory of PE is not being smoothly destocked, and the confidence of the middle and lower reaches in the future market is average [6]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis of polypropylene is weakly oscillating, and the month spread is weakening. The overall profit of production is compressed, with the PDH production valuation remaining at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based production processes in a loss state [94][104][129]. - The upstream prices show that crude oil is strengthening at a low level, naphtha is sideways, and propylene is strengthening. Coal prices are rebounding [121]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity of PP increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The supply center has been declining recently, and the maintenance scale in January has increased. The follow - up maintenance scale is expected to increase, and the supply may be marginally supported if the maintenance plans are fulfilled [92]. - The import volume of PP is limited in the short term, and the export volume is expected to remain at a basic level [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream开工率 of polypropylene is declining. Although there is some demand release during the Spring Festival period, the off - season demand is difficult to resonate. The overall inventory of PP is not being smoothly destocked, and the inventory in the middle reaches has increased significantly this week [93][94].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on polyolefins by Guotai Junan Futures, covering plastics and polypropylene, including price, supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects [1] Plastics Section Core Viewpoint - The price of plastics is under pressure due to ample supply and weak demand. The market is expected to remain in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival, with prices under pressure. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [5] Price & Spread - The spot price increase is limited following the futures price rebound, leading to a weaker basis and a stronger 5 - 9 month spread. The import window is repaired, and the non - standard price difference is at a relatively high level [5][14][15] Supply - The total effective production capacity in 2025 increased by 16%, with domestic production increasing by 18%. The supply is ample due to low maintenance in Q4 and some restarts during holidays. Some standard products are being converted to non - standard products, and the import volume may remain high at the beginning of 2026 [5] Demand & Inventory - The demand for agricultural films is in a seasonal off - peak, and the demand for packaging films is short - term and limited. The overall downstream demand is expected to decline. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the social inventory removal is slowing down [5] Polypropylene Section Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene price is under pressure in the off - season. The supply may have marginal changes if PDH plants shut down as expected. The market is also likely to face a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with a pessimistic outlook [91] Price & Spread - The basis is weak and volatile, and the month spread is oscillating. The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited increase [91][101][105] Supply - The total effective production capacity increased by 12.7% in 2025, with an estimated annual output increase of 16.7%. The planned maintenance at the end of the year is decreasing, but there is an expectation of PDH plant shutdowns in January. The import and export volumes are expected to remain at a basic level [91] Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders for some industries are seasonally weakening. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory is concentrated in the middle stream, with a higher year - on - year level [91] Investment Strategy Plastics - Single - side: Oscillate weakly, short on rebounds [5] - Inter - period: Not recommended for now [5] - Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [5] Polypropylene - Single - side: Oscillate weakly, short on rebounds [91] - Inter - period: Not recommended for now [91] - Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [91]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, in December, the overall maintenance volume of PE is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the later period is also relatively limited. The PE start - up rate is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. The demand side is in a weak state with the decline of downstream start - up rates. Although the social inventory of PE is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening. In the short term, it is difficult to have substantial improvement under the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain at a high level as the maintenance intensity weakens and the supply may increase slightly. The profit of PDH has declined to the lowest level of the year, but the marginal device shutdown is not obvious. The downstream demand has limited order follow - up, and the overall inventory level is still high. The cost support has weakened, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - The trading strategy is to hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - sided trading with the short - term trend being weak and oscillating at the bottom. For cross - period trading, there is no recommended strategy. For cross - variety trading, it is advisable to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it reaches a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Prices and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,543 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,256 yuan/ton (+2). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,500 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,580 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,200 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 43 yuan/ton (+14), in East China is 37 yuan/ton (+14), and the PP basis in East China is - 56 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE start - up rate is 84.1% (+0.1%), and the PP start - up rate is 78.3% (+0.7%) [1]. - **Production Profits**: The PE oil - based production profit is 231.1 yuan/ton (+47.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 388.9 yuan/ton (+47.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 774.2 yuan/ton (+43.2) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 105.0 yuan/ton (+7.1), the PP import profit is - 273.0 yuan/ton (+49.4), and the PP export profit is - 11.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 46.4% (-1.7%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 49.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 44.1% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 62.9% (+0.3%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply is expected to increase with low maintenance and new device commissioning. The demand is weakening as the downstream start - up rates decline. The inventory pressure is still large despite the social inventory reduction. The cost support from oil prices is weakening [2]. - **PP**: The supply is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance. The demand has limited order follow - up, and the inventory level is high. The cost support has weakened [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, with short - term weak oscillation at the bottom [4]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy [4]. - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it reaches a high level [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand, with supply pressure remaining difficult to ease. The market's cost - side support is weak, and it is expected to operate under pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and position changes of plastic (L2601, L2605, L2609) and PP (PP2601, PP2605, PP2609) futures contracts are presented. For example, L2601 closed at 6,929 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.3%), and PP2601 closed at 6,618 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.42%) [5][6]. - Market Situation: Despite the slight increase in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and downstream buyers mostly waited and watched. The supply - demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continued to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises increased maintenance due to lower - than - expected peak - season demand, the expected maintenance losses from September to November will narrow, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. After the holiday, social inventories increased, and the demand in October had some resilience but with limited new orders. The downstream mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the inventory - removal pressure was high. The upward revision of the crude oil supply forecast may lead to accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and cost - side support is difficult to find [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On October 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 800,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,880 - 7,170 yuan/ton, 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,130 - 7,600 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6,200 - 6,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene weakened, and production enterprises sold at discounted prices with a poor trading atmosphere [7]. - PP Market: The PP market was mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,480 - 6,570 yuan/ton, 6,460 - 6,630 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not detailed in the text [9][12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polyolefins is trending weakly with oscillations [1][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For polypropylene, the external environment is volatile, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and the overall supply is in excess. Although there is optimism about improved trade - war situations, the high - level should be treated with caution. The key to future seasonal reversal may be the recovery of Sino - US seasonal demand driven by the Fed's interest - rate cuts [6] - For polyethylene, the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a retracement of the premium caused by import risks. The demand is weak, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. The supply pressure will gradually increase in Q3 2025, and attention should be paid to the spread changes between different types of polyethylene [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Polypropylene is trending weakly with oscillations. The external environment brings uncertainty, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and export growth is limited [5][6] - Linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is also showing a weakly oscillating trend. The macro environment affects the price premium, and supply - demand imbalance exists [7][8] - Core data shows that the spot price of both polypropylene and polyethylene has decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The basis and monthly spread of both have weakened. The polypropylene's average capacity utilization has decreased, while polyethylene's has increased. The polyolefin inventory has increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year [9] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price and Spread**: The non - standard price spread is not conducive to price rebound [17] - **Supply - Side**: New domestic production capacity is being put into operation, and more manufacturers are producing copolymer products with higher profits. The short - term overall start - up rate has declined, and there are still many overhauls in July, but new production capacity offsets the support from overhauls. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 785.5 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [20][22][26] - **Inventory**: The production inventory has decreased, while the trader inventory has increased. The total commercial inventory has decreased slightly, mainly due to more upstream overhauls and lower downstream purchasing enthusiasm [27][31] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The profit of oil - based manufacturers has declined, while the profit of PDH - based production has increased [32][37] - **Downstream**: The BOPP start - up rate remains flat, with fewer orders and more finished - product inventory. The profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape master - roll start - up rate, orders, and the start - up rate and orders of plastic - weaving and non - woven fabric industries have all declined. The CPP start - up rate and orders have slightly decreased [39][42][47] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Spread**: The short - term L - LL spread is declining, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL spread has expanded in 2025, but may oscillate later [62][65] - **Supply - Side**: The start - up rate has decreased, but the output has increased. The expected overhaul loss in July will be less than that in June. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [66][69][70] - **Inventory**: The production - enterprise inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [72] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the profit of oil - based production devices has declined [76][82] - **Downstream**: The start - up rate and orders of the agricultural film industry have decreased. The start - up rate and orders of the packaging film industry have increased. The start - up rates of the pipe and hollow industries are lower than the same period last year [84][85][86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and the futures market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The petrochemical inventory is accumulating, while downstream factories have strong restocking efforts, leading to a slow reduction in upstream factory inventory and trader inventory. During the petrochemical plant maintenance season, there are many planned maintenance devices, and several previously shut - down devices are expected to restart soon, resulting in an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. It is currently the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film operating rate continues to decline, and the operating rates of other end - users fluctuate weakly. End - user factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The international crude oil price is on the rise, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. There is still cost - side support for PDH - made PP, and with the decline in propane prices, the operating rate of PDH - made PP has increased slightly [2]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,078 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,932 yuan/ton (+7). The LL spot price in North China is 7,090 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 7,070 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China is 12 yuan/ton (-12), in East China is 22 yuan/ton (-12), and the PP basis in East China is 138 yuan/ton (-17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 77.4% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 77.0% (+1.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 207.1 yuan/ton (-80.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 52.9 yuan/ton (-80.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 164.9 yuan/ton (+7.4) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (+52.8), and the PP export profit is 14.6 US dollars/ton (-1.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 12.9% (-0.1%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.9% (+0.3%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.7% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (+0.7%) [1]. II. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish on plastics [3]. - **Inter - period**: No inter - period strategy is provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PP will face continuous pressure in the later stage. Factors include the impact of the trade - war on the global economy and OPEC's production increase leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which is likely to cause PP prices to weaken. The downstream order recovery is nearing its end, and the supply pressure will gradually resume after mid - April [5][6]. - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short term. The macro - policy changes, especially the tariff war between the US and China, have increased market uncertainty. The tariff increase may affect polyethylene imports and plastic product exports, and the polyethylene market is facing negative feedback on the demand side and cost collapse, but the import issue also provides some support [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - PP: The trade - war drags down the global economy, OPEC's production increase causes a sharp decline in crude oil prices, which may lead to a weakening of PP prices. The downstream order recovery is almost over, and the supply pressure will gradually return after mid - April. In the medium - term, the new production capacity pressure on the supply side is concentrated in the first half of the year, and the total demand has hidden dangers. Although the export market has supported the domestic polyolefin market in recent years, there may be some pressure in the first half of 2025 [6]. - LLDPE: The macro - policy changes, especially the tariff war between the US and China, have increased market uncertainty. The tariff increase may affect polyethylene imports and plastic product exports. In 2025, the new domestic PE production capacity is expected to be 2.15 million tons in the second quarter, and the supply pressure may appear in the third quarter. The demand side may be affected by the trade - war, and the polyethylene market is short - term weak, but the import issue provides some support [7]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Non - standard price difference: The non - standard price difference of polypropylene has flattened, and the market has changed little. In 2025, the trend of non - standard price difference is still uncertain. The first - quarter demand is unlikely to explode, and in the second quarter, if there is an unexpected fiscal expansion in China, the non - standard price difference may expand. However, the trade - war may bring potential negative risks [16][19]. - Production and capacity utilization: The overall short - term start - up of polypropylene has decreased month - on - month, and the supply in April may be relatively loose. The current polypropylene capacity utilization rate has decreased by 0.05% to 76.38%, and the weekly output has decreased by 0.04 tons to 731,600 tons, a decline of 0.05% [20][22]. - Maintenance: April is the peak season for PP device maintenance in the first half of the year, and the planned maintenance is expected to increase [24]. - New production capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polypropylene is 7.005 million tons, with a production capacity increase of 16%. The potential production pressure is still large, especially from the commissioning of several large - scale refinery devices [25]. - Inventory: The production inventory of polypropylene has decreased month - on - month, while the inventory of traders has increased. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises has decreased by 25,300 tons to 616,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the inventory of trader sample enterprises has increased by 8,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.76% [26][30]. - Cost: The crude oil price dropped significantly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the cost of polypropylene will decline [31]. - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene manufacturers have declined. The calculated oil - based PP profit is - 472 yuan/ton, and the PDH device profit is - 798 yuan/ton [37][38]. - Downstream: The start - up of BOPP has remained flat, the order days have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a high level. The profit of BOPP is at a historical low, mainly due to over - capacity. The start - up of tape master rolls has remained flat, and the order situation is still not ideal. The start - up of plastic weaving has rebounded, and the order days have increased. The start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the start - up and order days of CPP have remained flat [39][42][47][50][55][58]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Import and export: In 2024, China imported 2.387 million tons of polyethylene from the US, accounting for 17.23% of the total imports and about 5.7% of the total supply. 46.2% of the products imported from the US are LLDPE. The amount of Chinese plastic products exported to the US in 2024 accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and the proportion has been declining in recent years [66]. - Price difference: The L - LL price difference of polyethylene has declined in the short term. The previous continuous decline of non - standard price difference has suppressed the overall structure of polyethylene, and the high premium of high - pressure to linear is difficult to continue in the medium - term [67][70]. - Production and capacity utilization: The start - up rate and output of polyethylene have increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 82.46%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points from the previous period, and the weekly output has increased by 1.15% to 623,400 tons [71][73]. - Maintenance: The expected maintenance loss of polyethylene in April will decrease compared with March [74]. - New production capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polyethylene is 5.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of 16.8% [75]. - Inventory: The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises and social inventory have both decreased month - on - month. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise samples has decreased by 66,300 tons to 438,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.14%, and the social sample warehouse inventory has decreased by 11,600 tons to 618,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84% [77][80]. - Cost: The crude oil price dropped significantly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the cost of polyethylene will decline [81]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based polyethylene devices has declined. The calculated oil - based profit is - 391 yuan/ton [83][84]. - Downstream: The start - up of agricultural film has increased month - on - month, but the order days have decreased month - on - month. The start - up and order days of packaging film have both decreased. The start - up of pipes and hollow products has rebounded, but the growth rate is relatively slow [85][86][87].