1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polyolefins is trending weakly with oscillations [1][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For polypropylene, the external environment is volatile, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and the overall supply is in excess. Although there is optimism about improved trade - war situations, the high - level should be treated with caution. The key to future seasonal reversal may be the recovery of Sino - US seasonal demand driven by the Fed's interest - rate cuts [6] - For polyethylene, the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a retracement of the premium caused by import risks. The demand is weak, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. The supply pressure will gradually increase in Q3 2025, and attention should be paid to the spread changes between different types of polyethylene [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Polypropylene is trending weakly with oscillations. The external environment brings uncertainty, new production capacity offsets supply - side efforts, and export growth is limited [5][6] - Linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is also showing a weakly oscillating trend. The macro environment affects the price premium, and supply - demand imbalance exists [7][8] - Core data shows that the spot price of both polypropylene and polyethylene has decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The basis and monthly spread of both have weakened. The polypropylene's average capacity utilization has decreased, while polyethylene's has increased. The polyolefin inventory has increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year [9] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price and Spread**: The non - standard price spread is not conducive to price rebound [17] - **Supply - Side**: New domestic production capacity is being put into operation, and more manufacturers are producing copolymer products with higher profits. The short - term overall start - up rate has declined, and there are still many overhauls in July, but new production capacity offsets the support from overhauls. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 785.5 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [20][22][26] - **Inventory**: The production inventory has decreased, while the trader inventory has increased. The total commercial inventory has decreased slightly, mainly due to more upstream overhauls and lower downstream purchasing enthusiasm [27][31] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The profit of oil - based manufacturers has declined, while the profit of PDH - based production has increased [32][37] - **Downstream**: The BOPP start - up rate remains flat, with fewer orders and more finished - product inventory. The profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape master - roll start - up rate, orders, and the start - up rate and orders of plastic - weaving and non - woven fabric industries have all declined. The CPP start - up rate and orders have slightly decreased [39][42][47] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Spread**: The short - term L - LL spread is declining, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL spread has expanded in 2025, but may oscillate later [62][65] - **Supply - Side**: The start - up rate has decreased, but the output has increased. The expected overhaul loss in July will be less than that in June. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [66][69][70] - **Inventory**: The production - enterprise inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [72] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the profit of oil - based production devices has declined [76][82] - **Downstream**: The start - up rate and orders of the agricultural film industry have decreased. The start - up rate and orders of the packaging film industry have increased. The start - up rates of the pipe and hollow industries are lower than the same period last year [84][85][86]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-10 基本面维持，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 策略 单边：塑料谨慎偏空。 跨期：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（+12），PP主力合约收盘价为6932元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7090 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为12元/吨（-12），LL 华东基差为22元/吨（-12）， PP华东基差为138元/吨（-17）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为77.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为77.0%（+1.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为207.1元/吨（-80.1），PP油制生产利润为-52.9元/吨（-80.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-164.9元/吨（+7.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-310.6元/吨（+9.4），PP进口利润为-460.1元/吨（+52.8），PP出口利润为14.6美元/吨（-1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.9%（+0. ...

聚烯烃：后期仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年4月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 PP：后期仍有压力 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 首先、贸易战拖累全球经济，OPEC扩产导致原油价格大幅下跌，大概率会导致PP价格走弱。需求端下 游订单恢复近尾声，供应端4月中旬后检修装置减少，复产装置逐步增多，供应压力将逐步恢复，市场压 力较大； ◆ 第二、站在中期角度看，供应端新增产能压力主要集中在上半年，而需求端虽有春季回来后的市场短暂 恢复，但总量存在隐患，一方面是外部贸易战因素，另一方面是国内加工端高产能、低利润结构难以持 续支撑市场持续好转，这种压力在上半年可 ...