中信证券研报称，2025年 乳制品供给小幅增加，液奶需求承压，固体乳需求高景气。2026年1月散奶价 格维持高位，原奶供需矛盾短期缓解，龙头乳企深加工布局持续推进。1月以来淘汰母牛价格涨至20 元/kg以上，龙头牧业公司增加肉牛业务布局，2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%，2026年肉牛供给 端存在下降压力，参考上轮肉牛周期去化及价格回升节奏，判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续 看好肉牛原奶周期共振，推荐牧业养殖龙头及原奶自给率行业领先的全产业链龙头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - YouRan Dairy (09858) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 9% to HKD 3.98, with a trading volume of HKD 106 million. The company is recognized as the largest raw milk supplier globally, with a comprehensive business model covering the entire dairy industry chain, including breeding, grass, feed, and dairy cattle farming, all leading in their respective sectors. Analysts predict a stabilization and gradual recovery of raw milk prices in the first half of 2026 due to improved supply and demand dynamics, which is expected to significantly boost revenue from raw milk sales. Additionally, the upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to benefit the company's profit margins [1]. Group 1 - YouRan Dairy is the largest raw milk supplier globally, with a complete coverage of the dairy industry chain [1] - Analysts expect raw milk prices to stabilize and recover in 2026, leading to increased revenue from raw milk sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices is likely to continue, positively impacting the company's profits [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities forecasts a reduction of over 10% in breeding cows since 2024, leading to a domestic shortage of cattle supply, which is a key driver for the current beef price increase [1] - The previous beef cycle saw an 11% decline in stock, resulting in a cumulative price increase of over 60% for fattening cattle, while the current cycle has seen only a 20% increase in live cattle prices [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's ongoing investigation into beef import measures does not affect the domestic cycle reversal logic, indicating a positive outlook for the beef and raw milk sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuran Dairy (09858) has seen a stock price increase of over 9%, currently trading at 3.98 HKD with a transaction volume of 106 million HKD, driven by positive market sentiment regarding the dairy industry and the company's strong position as the largest raw milk supplier globally [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yuran Dairy is recognized as the world's largest raw milk supplier, with a comprehensive business model covering the entire dairy industry chain, including breeding, grassland, feed, and dairy cattle farming, all of which are industry-leading [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a gradual stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices in the first half of 2026, following a prolonged decline in milk prices [1] Group 2: Market Trends - According to Huayuan Securities, the improvement in both supply and demand dynamics is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in revenue from raw milk sales as prices rise [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts that the number of breeding cows may decrease by over 10% starting in 2024, leading to a domestic shortage of cattle supply, which is a primary driver of the current beef price increase [1] - The previous cycle saw an 11% decline in cattle inventory, resulting in a cumulative beef price increase of over 60%, while the current cycle has seen live cattle prices rise by less than 20%, indicating further potential for price increases [1] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Commerce has extended the investigation into import beef safeguard measures, which introduces uncertainty regarding beef imports but does not affect the overall logic of the domestic cycle reversal [1] - The ongoing upward trend in beef prices and raw milk prices is expected to positively impact the profits of leading dairy companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - After the double festival, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, and both contract and spot prices showing month-on-month stability. The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, with ambient temperature products performing weaker than low-temperature ones. However, deep processing and overseas markets are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, indicating a promising future [1] Dairy Industry - Milk prices are stabilizing after the holiday season, indicating a bottoming phase [1] - Demand for dairy products is under pressure, particularly for ambient temperature products compared to low-temperature ones [1] - Deep processing and overseas markets are growing rapidly from a low base, suggesting a bright outlook for the future [1] Beef Industry - In Q3, beef prices have shown high volatility, with a cumulative reduction in stock expected to exceed 10% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - By 2026, there is anticipated downward pressure on beef supply, referencing the previous cycle's reduction and price recovery rhythm [1] - The current cycle for live cattle prices is expected to have upward potential, with a positive outlook for the beef and raw milk cycle resonance [1]

Core Viewpoint - After the Double Festival, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, and both contract and spot prices showing stable month-on-month changes. The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, with ambient products performing weaker than chilled ones. However, deep processing and overseas expansion are growing rapidly from a low base, indicating a promising future [1] Group 1: Dairy Industry - Milk prices are stabilizing after the holiday season, indicating a bottoming phase [1] - Demand for dairy products is under pressure, particularly in ambient segments compared to chilled segments [1] - Deep processing and overseas markets are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, suggesting a bright outlook for the future [1] Group 2: Beef Industry - In Q3, beef cattle prices have shown high volatility, with a cumulative reduction in stock expected to exceed 10% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - By 2026, there is anticipated downward pressure on the supply side of beef cattle, referencing the previous cycle's reduction and price recovery patterns [1] - The current cycle for live cattle prices is expected to have upward potential, with a positive outlook for the synergy between beef cattle and raw milk cycles [1]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the dual festivals, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase. Contract prices are stable on a month-on-month basis, while dairy product demand continues to face pressure, particularly with ambient temperature products underperforming compared to chilled products [1] - The deep processing sector and exports are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, suggesting a promising future outlook [1] - In Q3, beef cattle prices have shown high volatility, and it is expected that the cumulative reduction in stock since 2024 may exceed 10%. By 2026, there may be downward pressure on the supply side of beef cattle [1] - Based on the previous cycle of beef cattle reduction and price recovery, it is anticipated that there is still upward potential for live cattle prices in the current cycle. The industry remains optimistic about the resonance between beef cattle and raw milk cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in breeding cows since 2024 has led to a shortage in cattle supply, which is the main driver behind the recent increase in beef prices [1] Group 1: Cattle Supply and Price Trends - Since the second quarter, there has been a noticeable upward trend in live cattle prices [1] - The report anticipates a decline in domestic beef supply by 2026, suggesting that beef prices still have room to rise [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on the resonance between beef and raw milk cycles, indicating potential profit improvements for leading livestock companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since the third quarter, the reduction in dairy cow production due to heat stress, combined with the recovery in demand for the Double Festival stocking, has led to a seasonal easing of supply-demand conflicts. Although short-term de-stocking in the livestock industry has slowed, the long-term reversal logic remains intact [1] Group 1: Dairy and Beef Cattle Market - Since the second quarter, beef cattle prices have been continuously rising, and the impact of the reduction in breeding cows is expected to be evident starting in 2024 [1] - It is anticipated that by 2026, there will be downward pressure on the supply side of beef cattle, suggesting that live cattle prices still have upward potential [1] Group 2: Industry Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the resonance between beef cattle and raw milk cycles, recommending leading livestock farming companies and full industry chain leaders with high raw milk self-sufficiency rates [1]