中信证券研报称，双节后供需平稳，奶价进入磨底阶段，合同内外价格环比平稳，乳制品需求持续承 压，其中常温表现弱于低温，深加工及出海低基数下快速成长，未来前景广阔。Q3肉牛价格整体高位 波动，2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%，预计2026年肉牛供给端存在下降压力，参考上轮肉牛周期 去化及价格回升节奏，我们判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振。 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural market shows mixed trends in livestock and poultry prices, with some products experiencing price increases while others decline [1][2][3][4][5][6] Livestock Prices - The average price of piglets nationwide is 24.14 yuan/kg, down 1.0% week-on-week and 29.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, down 1.1% week-on-week and 26.6% year-on-year [2] - The average price of pork is 23.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week and 19.1% year-on-year [2] - In contrast, the average price of beef is stable at 71.37 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [4] - The average price of lamb is 71.32 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week and 2.0% year-on-year [4] Poultry Prices - The average price of eggs is 8.61 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and 22.4% year-on-year [3] - The average price of chicken is 22.34 yuan/kg, down 0.1% week-on-week and 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The average price of broiler chicks is 3.50 yuan each, down 0.8% week-on-week and 11.8% year-on-year [3] Feed Prices - The average price of corn is 2.43 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week and up 3.4% year-on-year [6] - The average price of soybean meal is 3.29 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week and down 1.8% year-on-year [6] - The average price of feed for fattening pigs is 3.36 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week and down 0.9% year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between Argentina and the United States has been criticized by experts for placing Argentina at a "complete disadvantage," suggesting that it will not improve the Argentine economy but rather impose additional burdens on it [1]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - Argentina will open its market to U.S. agricultural products, including live cattle and poultry, and simplify the registration process for U.S. beef and beef products [2]. - The agreement is seen as problematic because both Argentina and the U.S. are major agricultural exporters, and the U.S. has a higher level of industrialization in agriculture, which could negatively impact Argentina's agricultural development [2]. Group 2: Economic and Political Implications - Opening the market to the U.S. violates the unified external tariff regulations of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), potentially affecting Argentina's economic relations with neighboring countries [4]. - The agreement has been described as "unequal," with Argentina making concessions in various areas such as tariffs, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property, agricultural market access, and labor issues, while the U.S. has not made clear concessions, effectively giving U.S. companies preferential market access [4]. - The Argentine Interior Minister compared the trade agreement to the historical Roca-Runciman Agreement with the UK, which is viewed as having allowed the UK to exert control over the Argentine economy at a low cost [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between Argentina and the United States has been criticized for placing Argentina at a "complete disadvantage," failing to improve its economy and potentially increasing its burdens [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - Argentina will open its market to U.S. agricultural products, including live cattle and poultry, and simplify the registration process for U.S. beef and beef products [1]. - The agreement requires Argentina to make concessions in areas such as tariffs, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property, agricultural market access, and labor issues, while U.S. concessions are not clearly defined [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Argentine economist Jorge Marchini argues that the agreement could negatively impact Argentina's agricultural development due to competition with the highly industrialized U.S. agricultural sector [1]. - The agreement may violate the common external tariff regulations of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), affecting Argentina's economic relations with neighboring countries [1]. Group 3: Historical Context - The trade agreement has been compared to the historical Roca-Runciman Agreement with the UK, which forced Argentina to make significant concessions to maintain access to the British beef market, leading to increased control of the Argentine economy by foreign powers [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture sector, particularly in livestock and planting industries, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][24]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.81% [2]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of improved profitability in the medium term due to controlled production capacity [24]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices but is expected to recover as consumer demand improves [39]. - The beef and dairy sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices and a potential new cycle in beef production [40]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with government support and potential improvements in crop yields due to external factors [46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture index closed at 3103.24 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.81%, outperforming major indices [2][17]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week, with a slight increase in average weight at 128.32 kg/head [23][24]. - The report anticipates a short-term price stabilization but warns of potential downward pressure due to supply increases [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.02 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 2.09% week-on-week [39]. - The report notes that the poultry sector is under pressure but expects recovery with improved consumer demand [39]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.29 yuan/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the beef market [40]. - The report suggests that the dairy sector may see price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [40]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2302.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while wheat prices are supported by government policies [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if crop yields are affected by external factors [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported in the past week [64]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with various fish prices remaining stable or slightly increasing [64].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the beef and dairy industries are entering a phase of supply-demand balance due to reduced supply pressures and improved demand conditions in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Beef Industry Insights - The beef price has begun to reverse from low levels, with a projected increase in 2025 driven by supply reduction and decreased import pressures. Since the beginning of 2025, beef and live cattle prices have risen approximately 10% and 20% respectively from previous lows [1][4]. - The supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease due to ongoing losses in ranching, with a reported 2.1% year-on-year decline in national cattle inventory as of Q2 2025, totaling 99.92 million heads [4]. - The reduction in imported beef, which saw a 9.5% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025, is anticipated to further support domestic beef prices [4]. Dairy Industry Insights - The price of raw milk has continued to decline, but a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, aided by reduced dairy cow restocking and a recovery in demand [2]. - The implementation of a fertility subsidy policy in July 2025 is expected to boost dairy product consumption, alongside the introduction of new national standards for UHT milk, which will limit the use of reconstituted milk [2]. - The dairy industry is projected to see a strong upward trend in prices in 2026 due to the fading effects of previous expansion and a reduction in lactating cow restocking [2]. Profitability and Market Dynamics - The cyclical nature of the meat and dairy industries is expected to enhance the profitability of leading agricultural companies. A hypothetical 10% to 20% increase in milk prices could improve the gross margin of leading dairy companies by 6 to 10 percentage points [5]. - The valuation of breeding cattle and income from culling are expected to increase with a 20% to 40% rise in cattle prices, potentially adding 200 to 400 million yuan to the total income of leading ranching companies [5]. - Companies involved in both beef and dairy sectors, such as Aoyuan Group and China Shengmu, are likely to benefit directly from the recovery in live cattle prices and the reversal of milk prices [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in specific segments [7]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [13]. - The report highlights that while short-term pressures exist, there are signs of stabilization in various segments, particularly in pig farming and planting chains [19][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2835.81 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite saw gains of 1.70% and 3.63% respectively [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, a slight increase [19][20]. - The report indicates that the industry is facing pressure with weak demand leading to increased slaughtering activity, and some producers are beginning to cut back on production due to losses [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.20 yuan/kg, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 14.10 yuan/kg, up 1.44% [30]. - The report notes that while prices are under pressure, there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [30]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 26.80 yuan/kg, up 0.37% week-on-week, indicating a gradual recovery in the beef market [35]. - The report anticipates that the dairy sector may stabilize in the second half of 2025 as supply constraints begin to ease [35]. 2.4 Planting Chain - Domestic corn prices were stable at 2,318.57 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 0.67% to 3,952.63 yuan/ton [38]. - The report suggests that if there are significant reductions in grain production, the planting sector could see improved conditions [39]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a stable cost environment [55]. - Aquaculture prices showed stability, with various fish prices remaining unchanged, indicating a steady market [55].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, with a focus on high-quality, low-cost expansion companies [2][20][36]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.09%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight adjustment in prices, with expectations of improved mid-term profitability due to better management of supply pressures [20][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing price pressures due to weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [30][33]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with potential for a new cycle of growth as supply constraints continue [36][37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [42][43]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with a positive outlook for aquatic product prices [60][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2759.14 points, with a weekly increase of 1.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% as well [2][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 3.52%. The average weight of pigs at market is 129.03 kg, showing a slight increase [20][21]. - Profits for self-breeding and self-raising are reported at 133.87 yuan/head, indicating a positive trend in profitability [20][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.24 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 7.56%. The profitability for parent stock chickens is negative, indicating pressure on margins [30][33]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle is 26.44 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.71%. The dairy sector is stabilizing, with expectations for milk prices to recover in the second half of 2025 [36][37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2351.43 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease. The report highlights the importance of grain production stability amid external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported. Aquaculture prices are showing a positive trend, particularly for shrimp and abalone [60][61].

Core Point - Mexico announced that the United States will reopen its border to allow the import of live cattle as part of cooperation on the issue of screw-worm disease [1] Group 1 - The reopening of the border signifies a collaborative effort between Mexico and the United States to address agricultural health concerns [1] - The import of live cattle is expected to have implications for the livestock industry in both countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The beef and dairy cattle market in China has shown signs of recovery in 2023 after a period of low prices in the previous year, aided by a series of relief policies implemented by various departments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since March 2023, the market price of beef has gradually rebounded, particularly in Jilin Province, a key beef production area, where significant price increases have been observed in April [3][5]. - The price of live cattle has influenced the beef market, with reports indicating a bustling trading environment in major live cattle markets in northern regions [5][7]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Jilin Province allocated 47.75 million yuan to implement a comprehensive program for free distribution of high-quality beef cattle frozen semen, aimed at improving cattle quality and reducing breeding costs [9]. - The province has also introduced a subsidy policy for "stalk and ear collection" to transition cattle feeding from traditional dry straw to fermented silage, enhancing feed quality [11]. Group 3: Production Efficiency - Farmers report that cattle fed with fermented feed yield significantly more meat compared to those fed with dry straw, with an increase of 50-80 pounds per 500-pound cattle [13]. - The focus on improving cattle utilization efficiency and reducing feeding costs is expected to enhance overall production capacity, benefiting farmers [15].