智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，8-9月青贮采购季牧场收储资金压力较大，社会存栏有望加 速去化。25H2受益于供给端热应激下减产与前期后备牛去化效果显现，需求旺季下行业有望进入供需 平衡通道。受进口牛肉量缩减影响(25H1同比-9.5%)，25年以来牛肉/活牛价格低位反转，较前期低点上 涨约10%/20%，供给去化下牛价有望进一步增长。肉奶周期共振下牧业企业盈利弹性较强。建议增持牧 业龙头优然牧业(09858)、现代牧业(01117)，关注中国圣牧(01432)、澳亚集团(02425)。 风险提示 近年来牛肉价格历经三轮周期：1)2010-17年：人均可支配收入提升推动高档牛肉需求增长，供不应求 下牛肉价格快速上涨；2)2018-22年，非洲猪瘟影响下猪肉、禽肉价格飙升，需求增长下牛肉价格快速 上行；3)2023年至今：23年牛肉价格持续下行，主要受累于供给端进口低价牛肉挤压需求与上行期存栏 增长产能释放，以及替代性猪肉、禽肉等价格低位。 25年牛价进入上行周期，受益供给去化与进口影响减弱 牧场亏损下供给端能繁母牛存栏持续去化，超量屠宰下供给缺口有望进一步扩大，近年来行业亏损面继 续加大，24年1-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in specific segments [7]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [13]. - The report highlights that while short-term pressures exist, there are signs of stabilization in various segments, particularly in pig farming and planting chains [19][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2835.81 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite saw gains of 1.70% and 3.63% respectively [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, a slight increase [19][20]. - The report indicates that the industry is facing pressure with weak demand leading to increased slaughtering activity, and some producers are beginning to cut back on production due to losses [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.20 yuan/kg, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 14.10 yuan/kg, up 1.44% [30]. - The report notes that while prices are under pressure, there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [30]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 26.80 yuan/kg, up 0.37% week-on-week, indicating a gradual recovery in the beef market [35]. - The report anticipates that the dairy sector may stabilize in the second half of 2025 as supply constraints begin to ease [35]. 2.4 Planting Chain - Domestic corn prices were stable at 2,318.57 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 0.67% to 3,952.63 yuan/ton [38]. - The report suggests that if there are significant reductions in grain production, the planting sector could see improved conditions [39]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a stable cost environment [55]. - Aquaculture prices showed stability, with various fish prices remaining unchanged, indicating a steady market [55].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, with a focus on high-quality, low-cost expansion companies [2][20][36]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.09%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight adjustment in prices, with expectations of improved mid-term profitability due to better management of supply pressures [20][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing price pressures due to weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [30][33]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with potential for a new cycle of growth as supply constraints continue [36][37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [42][43]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with a positive outlook for aquatic product prices [60][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2759.14 points, with a weekly increase of 1.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% as well [2][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 3.52%. The average weight of pigs at market is 129.03 kg, showing a slight increase [20][21]. - Profits for self-breeding and self-raising are reported at 133.87 yuan/head, indicating a positive trend in profitability [20][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.24 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 7.56%. The profitability for parent stock chickens is negative, indicating pressure on margins [30][33]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle is 26.44 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.71%. The dairy sector is stabilizing, with expectations for milk prices to recover in the second half of 2025 [36][37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2351.43 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease. The report highlights the importance of grain production stability amid external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported. Aquaculture prices are showing a positive trend, particularly for shrimp and abalone [60][61].

Core Point - Mexico announced that the United States will reopen its border to allow the import of live cattle as part of cooperation on the issue of screw-worm disease [1] Group 1 - The reopening of the border signifies a collaborative effort between Mexico and the United States to address agricultural health concerns [1] - The import of live cattle is expected to have implications for the livestock industry in both countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The beef and dairy cattle market in China has shown signs of recovery in 2023 after a period of low prices in the previous year, aided by a series of relief policies implemented by various departments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since March 2023, the market price of beef has gradually rebounded, particularly in Jilin Province, a key beef production area, where significant price increases have been observed in April [3][5]. - The price of live cattle has influenced the beef market, with reports indicating a bustling trading environment in major live cattle markets in northern regions [5][7]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Jilin Province allocated 47.75 million yuan to implement a comprehensive program for free distribution of high-quality beef cattle frozen semen, aimed at improving cattle quality and reducing breeding costs [9]. - The province has also introduced a subsidy policy for "stalk and ear collection" to transition cattle feeding from traditional dry straw to fermented silage, enhancing feed quality [11]. Group 3: Production Efficiency - Farmers report that cattle fed with fermented feed yield significantly more meat compared to those fed with dry straw, with an increase of 50-80 pounds per 500-pound cattle [13]. - The focus on improving cattle utilization efficiency and reducing feeding costs is expected to enhance overall production capacity, benefiting farmers [15].

Core Viewpoint - The President of Mexico anticipates that the United States will soon resume imports of live cattle [1] Group 1 - The expectation of the U.S. resuming live cattle imports indicates a potential recovery in trade relations between Mexico and the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has suspended imports of live cattle, horses, and bison from the southern border with Mexico due to concerns over the destructive "New World Screw-worm" (NWS) pest, which previously caused significant damage to the cattle industry [1] Group 1: U.S. Actions - The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, announced the immediate suspension of imports to prevent the potential spread of NWS [1] - The last significant NWS infestation took 30 years for the U.S. cattle industry to recover from, highlighting the severity of the threat [1] Group 2: Mexico's Response - Mexico's Secretary of Agriculture, Julio Berdegue, condemned the U.S. action but expressed hope for a swift agreement between the two countries regarding the NWS issue [1] - An agreement had been reached between the U.S. and Mexico the previous month to address the NWS problem [1]