高盛闭门会-首席策略师用长期视角看 ai 和美股，泡沫早期 但还没破多元化的必要性 20251119 摘要 科技行业利润增长长期超越其他行业，这一趋势自金融危机后已持续 15 年，但当前科技股虽表现出色，整体行业估值仍未达历史泡沫水平。 美国股市估值偏高，未来十年预期回报较低；欧洲股市估值相对较低， 且存在结构性改革机会，增长潜力较大，多元化发展及资本支出增加也 将促进发展。 全球股票未来 10 年总回报预期为年化 7.7%（美元计），低于过去 10- 15 年水平。美国预期年化本地回报为 6.5%，欧洲约为 7%，亚洲约为 10%，新兴市场约为 11%。 对亚洲和中国 GDP 预测进行了上调，表明对该地区持乐观态度。中国加 大对出口驱动型模式的投入，并大幅增加产能，或将加剧欧洲制造业领 域的竞争。 欧洲市场过去十年呈现资金净流出趋势，但 2025 年初出现变化，美元 下跌、德国放松财政约束提振信心，外国投资者大量流入，本地资金回 流。 Q&A 在您最近发布的公司显微镜报告中，哪些图表对欧洲投资者关系人员来说最重 要和相关？ 在我们每季度发布的宏观范围报告中，有几个图表对欧洲投资者关系人员尤为 重要。首先，图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial pressure faced by middle and low-income Americans may threaten the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite the benefits that wealthier households gain from the stock market boom [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the upcoming interest rate decision in December will involve a "balanced consideration" [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, but many Americans are struggling with housing and living costs [1] - There is evidence that middle and low-income families are facing affordability constraints [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Williams dismissed calls for changes to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate mechanism [1] - He acknowledged concerns about potential over-investment and stock market bubbles, despite optimism surrounding productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in the US-China trade war, marked by President Trump's threat to impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, has led to significant declines in Asian markets, although a more conciliatory tone from Trump provided some support to investors [1][2][5]. Market Reactions - Asian markets experienced substantial losses, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 2.2 percent and Shanghai's Composite down 1.4 percent [5][8]. - Wall Street also reacted negatively, with the Nasdaq losing over three percent [3]. - US futures saw a rebound of more than one percent following Trump's later comments [6]. Tariff Details - Trump announced an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods, effective November 1, in response to China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals [2]. - Current US tariffs on Chinese products stand at 30 percent, while China's retaliatory tariffs are at 10 percent [3]. Diplomatic Context - Trump's comments included a more positive note towards Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating that the US wants to help China, which somewhat eased market fears [4]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the US for its "double standards" and stated that high tariffs are not the right approach to engage with China [4]. Economic Indicators - Gold prices reached a record high of $4,060, indicating a flight to safe-haven assets amid market turmoil [6]. - Oil prices rebounded after a decline, with West Texas Intermediate up 1.7 percent at $59.92 per barrel [9].

Group 1: Company Performance - C3.ai experienced a significant stock price drop, with a decline of over 30% at one point and a closing drop of 25.58% after reporting first-quarter revenues of approximately $70.2 million to $70.4 million, a 19% year-over-year decrease, which was far below analyst expectations of $104.3 million [1][4] - The company's adjusted operating loss for the first quarter is projected to be between $57.7 million and $59.9 million, nearly double the previous forecast of $23.5 million to $33.5 million, indicating a substantial deterioration in financial performance [4] - C3.ai's CEO Tom Siebel attributed the poor performance to significant sales restructuring disruptions and his own health issues, although he expressed optimism for improved sales in the second quarter [4][5] Group 2: Market Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey revealed that approximately 91% of fund managers believe the U.S. stock market is overvalued, marking the highest level since 2001 [2][7] - The survey also indicated that 49% of respondents view emerging market stocks as undervalued, the highest level since February 2024, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus [2][7] - The survey highlighted that 45% of participants consider the most crowded trade to be long positions in the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, which include Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Google, and Apple [7]