智通财经APP注意到，英国股票投资者正严阵以待，准备迎接该国多年来最受关注的预算案之一。财政 大臣雷切尔.里夫斯正寻求筹集约300亿英镑(390亿美元)以填补公共财政窟窿，重塑财政可信度。 预算案公布前，政府已出现多次政策逆转并陷入政治危机。里夫斯明显放弃提高所得税的计划令企业担 忧可能出现税种拼凑式加税。周三公布的预算案中，可能首当其冲的行业包括银行业、住宅建筑商、零 售商和商业地产商。 巴克莱分析师保罗.梅指出，市场普遍怀疑里夫斯能否实现收支平衡，这推高了投资者要求英国资产承 担的风险溢价。"在经营环境不明朗的情况下，很难对股票回报感到安心。" 投资者在研判预算案时，不仅要权衡针对特定行业的措施，还需考量影响整体消费者情绪的政策，例如 任何所得税起征点冻结范围的扩大。 以下是预算日值得关注的要点： 对利率和汇率敏感的股票 债券市场对预算案历来反应迅速激烈(前首相利兹.特拉斯可作证)，很可能定下市场基调。收益率上升会 降低股票的相对吸引力，反之亦然。收益率对银行、保险、住宅建筑和商业地产等特定行业有更直接影 响。 City Index高级分析师菲奥娜.辛科塔表示："任何市场不认同里夫斯计划的迹象都可能推高债 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a slowdown in UK consumer spending in September, attributed to concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Reeves, leading to adjustments in government reform plans to stimulate economic growth [1] - A survey indicates that UK consumer spending growth in September was the lowest in four months, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 3.1% in August, marking the weakest growth since May [1] - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that the increase in consumer spending is hindered by rising energy bills and uncertainty surrounding the budget announcement [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann stated that Brexit and tariffs are contributing factors to the long-term decline of the British pound, with Brexit events and former Prime Minister Liz Truss's policies leading to decreased competitiveness and economic growth [1] - The long-term erosion of the pound as a global currency began with the 2016 Brexit vote, which has limited the UK's growth potential and affected decision-making capabilities [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis of GBP/USD indicates a downward trend, with the 10 and 21-day moving averages and the 21-day Bollinger Bands trending lower, suggesting a bearish outlook [2] - Initial support levels are identified at 1.3270 and 1.3260, while resistance levels are at 1.3449 and 1.3489, with a target to test lower levels around 1.3140 [2] - Short-term fluctuations are expected, with key resistance at 1.3395 and 1.3445, and support at 1.3290 and 1.3240 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US inflation data is expected to be a key catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with the market currently holding a neutral view on the pound [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The market anticipates that the GBP/USD exchange rate will continue to fluctuate within a range, with investor focus shifting towards the upcoming UK autumn budget and its potential policy signals [1] - A potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in December is expected to occur earlier than the market's general consensus, which could significantly weaken the pound's interest rate advantage [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has stabilized above the support level of 1.3400 and has broken through short-term moving average resistance [1] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, indicating increased bullish momentum; if the exchange rate effectively breaks through the 1.3570 level, it may further test resistance levels at 1.3620 and 1.3680 [1] - Initial support levels to watch for a potential pullback are at 1.3500 and subsequently at 1.3440, with an overall trend leaning towards a strong consolidation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with upcoming US inflation data being a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movements [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Influence - The pound's performance is affected by the dollar's movements and overall market risk sentiment, especially in the absence of significant UK data releases [1] Upcoming Events - The US inflation report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - The UK autumn budget is highlighted as a key domestic catalyst for the pound [1] Future Outlook - Monex Europe suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates as early as December, which is sooner than market expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative interest rate advantage [1]

Currency Exchange Rates - The British pound has surged, reaching a four-year high against the US dollar at 1.37 and a near ten-year high against the Chinese yuan at 9.86 [2][4] - The latest exchange rates for GBP are: 1 GBP = 1.3722 USD, 1 GBP = 9.8398 CNY, 1 GBP = 1.1720 EUR, and 1 GBP = 197.9812 JPY [6] Economic Developments - A new town will be constructed in West London, providing 25,000 housing units and creating 56,000 jobs [11] - By 2035, it is projected that 1.2 million households will be forced to leave London due to high housing prices, with a 43% increase in families unable to afford living in central London [12][13][14] Government Investments - The UK government is increasing support for the Universal Studios project with a £500 million investment to improve transportation infrastructure [16] - An additional £500 million will be invested in Bedfordshire to enhance surrounding transportation and infrastructure, including £270 million for railway upgrades [15] Political Landscape - A significant shift in voter support is noted, with many working-class voters abandoning the Labour Party in favor of the Reform Party, with current support rates at 27% for the Reform Party and 23% for Labour [19][21] - A recent poll indicates that 29% of voters left Labour due to unmet government promises, while 24% cited insufficient relief from living cost pressures [19] Employment Trends - The number of graduate job openings in the UK has dropped to the lowest level since 2018, decreasing by 33% year-on-year and accounting for 12% of all job vacancies [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has reached its highest level since October 2021, increasing by 0.6% to 1.3746 USD [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Currency Performance - The British pound has seen a significant rise, touching 1.3746 USD, marking the highest point since October 2021 [1] - The latest increase in the pound's value is recorded at 0.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to decline in the Asian trading session, while the British pound reaches its highest level in over three years [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by 0.37%, now standing at 98.73 [1] - The USD/CAD pair has fallen to its lowest point since October 9 [1] - The EUR/USD has increased by nearly 0.5%, currently at 1.4156 [1] - The GBP/USD has risen by 0.4%, marking the highest level since February 2022 [1]