周三亚洲交易时段，英镑/美元汇率围绕1.3500关键位置窄幅波动。 此前一日从9月18日以来高点开启的回撤走势已显现停止迹象。 从当前基本面背景来看，市场多头力量获得一定支撑，短期汇率更大概率呈现上行态势。 美元方面，尽管隔夜录得涨幅并成功守住， 英镑的支撑动力主要来源于两方面。 一方面，英国预算相关的担忧情绪持续缓解，市场对英国财政状况的信心逐步修复； 另一方面，英国央行相对鹰派的政策立场持续发挥支撑作用。 在12月的利率决议中，货币政策委员会以5-4的微弱票数差距通过相关决议，凸显委员会内部对政策走向的分歧。 叠加近期英国通胀数据意外上行，投资者已下调对2026年英国央行实施更激进宽松政策的预期，这一预期调整进一步强化了英镑的支撑力度。 当前市场交投情绪相对谨慎，交易者普遍选择等待更多关于美联储降息路径的明确线索，英镑/美元的后续走势仍需关键数据指引。 短期内，市场焦点集中在即将公布的多项美国经济数据上： 但整体缺乏持续看涨的动力。当前市场对美联储的鸽派政策预期持续存在，同时多项关键宏观经济数据即将公布，进一步抑制了美元的上涨信 心。 全球股市普遍走高的市场情绪，降低了投资者对避险属性的美元需求，这一因素 ...

英镑兑美元延续近期强势，报1.3510，微涨0.0593%，盘中最高1.3517，最低1.3499。 回溯近期行情，12月23日英镑上涨0.3%至1.3502，创10月2日以来新高，并站稳1.35关键关口。今年累计涨幅超过8%，跑赢多数非美元货币。其上涨主要受 英国央行货币政策谨慎态度及美元指数走弱支撑。 英国央行政策是推动英镑走强的核心因素 12月18日，英国央行年内第四次降息25个基点至3.75%，2025年累计降息100个基点，基准利率从年初4.75%回落。货币政策委员会内部存在分歧：9名委员 中5人支持降息，4人因通胀仍高于2%目标主张维持利率。这种格局传递出政策宽松不会过度激进的信号。 通胀回落为降息提供空间，但未引发过度宽松预期。数据显示，英国11月CPI同比上涨3.2%，为八个月最低水平，低于央行此前预测。 央行行长安德鲁·贝利表示，通胀回落趋势确立，预计到2026年4-5月更接近目标，比此前预测提前近一年。降息节奏呈"先快后慢"特点：上半年两次降息间 隔3个月，下半年延长至4个月，显示未来降息门槛提高，市场预计2026年可能仅有1-2次降息。 技术面上，英镑突破1.35后，中期趋势由震荡转为偏 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of precious metals, including price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**:沪金2602 closed at 980.50 with a 0.08% daily increase, and 980.20 in the night session with a 0.02% increase; Comex黄金2602 closed at 4363.90 with a -0.17% decrease.沪银2602 closed at 15521 with a 0.06% increase, and 15228.00 in the night session with a -1.42% decrease; Comex白银2602 closed at 65.450 with a -1.49% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**:沪金2602 had a trading volume of 241,116, a decrease of 34,773 from the previous day, and a position of 196,752, a decrease of 353. Comex黄金2602 had a trading volume of 228,606, an increase of 22,920, and a position of 346,701, an increase of 6,132.沪银2602 had a trading volume of 1,571,738, a decrease of 55,330, and a position of 363,402, a decrease of 25,592. Comex白银2602 had a trading volume of 110,401, a decrease of 34,610, and a position of 114,701, unchanged [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR黄金ETF held 1,052.54, unchanged from the previous day; SLV白银ETF held 16,018.29 (the day before yesterday), unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**:沪金 inventory was 91,716 kg, a decrease of 6; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 35,991,345 troy ounces, unchanged.沪银 inventory was 912,164 kg, an increase of 240; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 452,950,783 troy ounces, a decrease of 895,355 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between 黄金T+D and AU2602 was -5.82, unchanged; the spread between 沪金2602 and 2606 contracts was N/A. The cost of the spread arbitrage between buying 沪金 in December and selling in June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87. The spread between 白银T+D and AG2602 was 57, an increase of 40; the spread between 沪银2602 and 2606 contracts was -13,933, a decrease of 414 [1]. Macro and Industry News - US inflation slowed more than expected, with the core CPI in November rising 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021. Some economists suspect data distortion due to a government shutdown [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 224,000, reversing the previous upward trend [4]. - The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, reiterating that inflation will return to the 2% target in the medium term and not providing clear easing guidance. ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle may have ended [6]. - The Bank of England made a "hawkish" 25 - basis - point rate cut, passing by a 5 - 4 vote, and said it would be more difficult to judge further easing [6]. - Trump said the next Fed chair must be "super - dovish" and would soon announce the candidate, praising Waller and Bowman [6]. - In October, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasuries by over $10 billion, while China's holdings decreased and Canada's decreased significantly [6]. - Wu Qing attended the founding meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and held a symposium on experts for the "15th Five - Year Plan" of the capital market [6]. - Germany unprecedentedly increased its bond - issuance scale for next year to 512 billion euros for infrastructure and defense [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].

Group 1 - Investors are awaiting key PPI and CPI data from the US for August, which will provide insights into inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve actions [1][3] - The British pound has strengthened against major currencies, driven by firm expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [1][3] - UK GDP growth is expected to stagnate after a 0.4% increase in June, with manufacturing and industrial production data also anticipated to remain flat [1][3] Group 2 - The US dollar is experiencing calm trading as investors digest a report indicating a weaker job market, with 910,000 fewer jobs added than previously expected [1][3] - The overall PPI is projected to grow steadily with an annual growth rate of 3.3%, while core PPI is expected to rise moderately to 3.5% [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to initiate monetary easing, with traders expecting a 50 basis point cut to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is betting that the Bank of England will maintain a 4% base interest rate for the remainder of the year, driven by rising inflation and resilient economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1% and the Bank of England's own forecasts [2] - The labor market is also performing strongly, with multiple indicators exceeding analysts' prior expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the economic fundamentals [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the shift in policy expectations, the British pound has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar this month, making it the best-performing currency among the G10 [2] - Analysts attribute the pound's strength to the Bank of England's quicker end to the rate-cutting cycle compared to other major central banks, creating a favorable interest rate differential [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key data, including the July inflation report and preliminary Q3 GDP figures, which will inform the Bank of England's policy direction [2] - Most institutions expect the Bank of England to likely keep interest rates unchanged in the September meeting while assessing whether inflation will exert sustained upward pressure [2]