苹果产业日报 2026-03-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 136 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9896 | | 130604 | 1829 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 379 | 14029 | | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) | | | | | | | 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 4.2 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 0.06 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.56 | 168.34 | 9.36 | -0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared with a weekly increase of about 6.24%. There was a slight increase in the number of inquiring merchants in the late - Fuji production areas, and the trading atmosphere varied among different production areas. The fruit growers' supplies were mostly concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. The inventory removal speed in the main apple - producing areas increased slightly compared to last week but was still lower than the same period last year. The sales in the distribution market were still sluggish, but the rigid demand for festival stocking increased. The market may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared this week with a weekly increase of about 6.24% [4][9] - **Market Outlook**: In the late - Fuji production areas, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly. The fruit growers' supplies were concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. As of January 7, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons from last week. The inventory removal speed increased slightly, but was still lower than the same period last year. In Shandong, the storage capacity ratio was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57% from last week; in Shaanxi, it was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80% from last week. The trading in Shandong's cold - storage was cold, and the overall volume of goods transferred was limited. Shaanxi's inventory removal speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The sales in the distribution market were still sluggish, but the rigid demand for festival stocking increased, and there may be a short - term upward trend [4] - **Future Trading Tips**: Fruit prices and consumption [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared this week with a weekly increase of about 6.24%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 8,206 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [9][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit growers' goods of paper - bag red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [19] 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Industry Chain 3.3.1.1. Supply - As of January 7, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons from last week. The inventory removal speed increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57% from last week; in Shaanxi, it was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80% from last week [27] 3.3.1.2. Demand - As of January 8, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0). As of January 2, 2026, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.43 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.0 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.77 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.103 yuan per kilogram. In November 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 121,600 tons, with an export value of 123,853,780 US dollars and an average export price of 1,018.09 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 51.24% compared to October and 12.38% compared to November 2024 [31][36][43] 3.3.2. Options Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week was presented, but no specific data was given [44] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - A graph of the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable was presented, but no in - depth analysis was provided [46]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - This week, the price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined with a weekly drop of about 1.24%. The出库 speed of late Fuji apples in the producing areas was slow, with merchants sourcing goods as needed. The price in Gansu producing area decreased due to quality deterioration, while prices in other producing areas remained stable. As of December 11, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 7.5855 billion tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from last week. The market arrival volume in the sales areas decreased, and the sales were not fast year - on - year due to high prices. Oranges and other citrus fruits impacted apple sales. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [6][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Highlights - Futures: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell, with a weekly decline of about 1.24% [6][11] - Market Outlook: Slow出库 in producing areas, stable prices in most regions, decreased inventory, slow market arrival and sales in sales areas, and impact from citrus fruits. Short - term wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped by about 1.24% this week [11] - Position and Warehouse Receipt: As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in apple futures was 7,427 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [17] - **Spot Market** - As of December 12, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged red Fuji apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per jin; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.60 yuan per jin [20] 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side** - As of December 11, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 7.5855 billion tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 53.73%, a decrease of 0.24% from last week, and that in Shaanxi was 57.86%, a decrease of 0.35% from last week [27] - **Demand Side** - **Wholesale Market Arrival** - As of December 11, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased [32] - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0) [32] - **Wholesale Price** - As of December 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.37 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.07 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [36] - **Substitute Products** - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.31 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.10 yuan per kilogram [40] - **Export** - In October 2025, China's apple export volume was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.29%, and the export amount was 779.12 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.62% [44] - **Options Market** - Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the form of a chart, but no specific data is given [45] 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The report presents the price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis or data description is provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The early - maturing apples have a poor good - fruit rate, and it is speculated that the Fuji apples may also have a poor good - fruit rate. The continuous rainfall in the western producing areas recently is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high price, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10] - For trading strategies, expect new - season apples to have a poor good - fruit rate, but the current price is relatively high, so the price will mainly fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot price**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 7.00, up 0.09 from the previous trading day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable [3] - **Futures price**: AP01 closed at 8446, up 110 from the previous trading day; AP05 closed at 8312, up 63; AP10 closed at 8647, up 99. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 was 134, up 47 [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 846, down 110 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 712, down 63 [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 27.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.62 million tons from the previous week. The inventory shipment speed increased slightly due to the limited supply of early - maturing Fuji in the west [6] - **Customs data**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 million tons, a 44.95% increase from the previous month. The import volume was 1.77 million tons, a 5.73% decrease from the previous month and an 8.47% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to July 2025 was 8.66 million tons, a 29.76% increase year - on - year [6] - **Market condition**: The domestic apple market was generally stable. High - quality cold - storage apples were in smooth trading, while medium - quality apples had poor sales. The supply of Hongjiangjun apples was abundant, but high - quality ones were in short supply. In the northwest producing areas, buyers' purchasing enthusiasm was fair, and the pre - harvest order prices remained high. The arrival volume at domestic wholesale markets was stable, and the mainstream transaction prices remained unchanged [7] - **Profit**: The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a 0.1 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8] - **Spot price**: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit - growers' apples was 3.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and that of third - grade apples was 2.5 - 2.6 yuan per catty. The transaction price of Hongjiangjun apples was 1.5 - 1.6 yuan per catty [8] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, and spreads between different AP contracts, as well as charts related to apple arrival volume, 6 - fruit prices, cold - storage inventory, and cold - storage apple shipment volume [14][16][22]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The poor quality rate of early - maturing apples implies a potentially poor quality rate for Fuji apples. Considering the current high prices, the apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9]. Summary by Section Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.43, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. Prices of various apple varieties such as those from different regions remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 6.75, up 0.02 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8291, up 18; AP05 at 8219, down 7; AP10 at 8452, up 11. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 was - 673, down 18; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 was - 855.0, down 11; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 was - 619, up 7 [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from the previous week. The inventory turnover rate slightly accelerated [6]. - **Trade Data**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 tons, a 44.95% increase from the previous month. The import volume was 1.77 tons, a 5.73% decrease from the previous month but an 8.47% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 8.66 tons, a 29.76% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Market Conditions**: The transaction price of cold - storage apples in the origin was stable last week, with an increase in packaging quantity and smooth shipments. The supply of Hongjiangjun apples was sufficient, but the supply of high - quality goods was limited. The purchase enthusiasm of wholesalers was fair. The high - price transactions of pre - harvested Fuji apples in the northwest region were reported [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of apple storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia during the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7]. - **Spot Price Details**: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 first - and second - grade apples varied according to different sources and colors. The price of Hongjiangjun apples was 1.5 - 1.6 yuan per catty [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to the poor quality rate of early - maturing apples and the expected impact of continuous rainfall in the western region on quality, but considering the current high prices, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, new - season apples may have a poor quality rate, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the price trends of different apple varieties, basis, spreads between contracts, apple arrivals at wholesale markets, and the prices of 6 kinds of fruits over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Apple Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 6.86, up 0.03 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8290, up 138 from the previous trading day - AP05: 8215, up 125 from the previous trading day - AP10: 8414, up 136 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4] - Customs Data: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 53,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.76% [6] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia for 80 first and second - grade apples was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] Trading Logic - The current market inventory is low, and the market demand is in the off - season. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. The early - maturing apples have a low excellent fruit rate, and the price of high - quality apples is high while that of low - quality apples is low. It is expected that the price of new - season Fuji apples will be high at the initial stage of listing, and the short - term futures market will fluctuate slightly stronger [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Since the excellent fruit rate of new - season apples may be poor, it is recommended to build long positions on dips and conduct low - buying and high - selling rolling operations [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main basis, etc. [15][17][23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is experiencing a transition period with a notable price disparity between old and new season apples, influenced by various factors including supply, demand, and seasonal fruit competition [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the latest close, the main contract for apple futures (AP2510) is priced at 8124 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline of 0.23% [1]. - The market is currently in a critical transition phase between the end of the old season apple inventory and the upcoming harvest of late-season Fuji apples [1]. - The old season apples, particularly in Shandong, are facing weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with a weighted price of 3.73 yuan/jin for grade 80 and above, down 9.90% from early July [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of early-season apples, particularly the paper bag Gala variety, is significantly higher than the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 0.3 to 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. - In Gansu's Jingning region, the starting price for paper bag Gala apples is between 5.0 to 5.3 yuan/jin, which is about 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year [2]. - The price expectations for late-season Fuji apples are rising, with anticipated opening prices potentially exceeding last year's by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan/jin [6]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The decline in old season apple prices is attributed to competition from seasonal fruits like lychee, which has seen a significant yield and lower prices compared to previous years [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 is expected to boost demand for new season Fuji apples, further influencing market dynamics [2][6]. - Weather conditions have impacted apple quality, with issues such as insufficient color and smaller fruit sizes affecting early-season apples, leading to higher demand for new season apples [5][6].