1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal is in a narrow - range shock. Affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, after the short - term negative news of China's cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions is digested, the market returns to shock. The spot demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is weakly shocked in the short term due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations and remains range - bound in the medium term [8]. - After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal rebounds after reaching the bottom. Considering the current supply - demand off - season in China, it will maintain a shock pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade relations [8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the seasonal off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. During the Canadian rapeseed harvesting and export period, the China - Canada trade issue affects the short - term export, reducing the domestic supply expectation [10]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual additional tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future decisions will depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the Canadian production is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival; No pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season; The improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from the low level [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [20][22]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not provided in the report - Aquaculture: The prices of aquatic fish have declined slightly, while the prices of shrimps and shellfish have remained stable [30]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have increased, and the capital has flowed out, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it returns to the range shock. For the single - side operation, RM2605 will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The main operation strategy is range - bound trading [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - After the negative impact of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China is digested, rapeseed meal returns to shock. The China - Canada trade relations may return to normal. Rapeseed meal rebounds after reaching the bottom in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the quantity of imported Canadian rapeseed [42]. - The KDJ indicator fluctuates at the mid - low level. The short - term market enters the technical shock consolidation stage. The indicator at the mid - low level limits the space for further decline. Whether it continues to adjust or rebound needs further observation and guidance [42]. - The MACD rebounds from the low level, showing a short - term technical rebound, but the red energy narrows. Whether the subsequent trend continues to rise or fall needs to wait for the policy guidance on Canadian rapeseed imports [42]. - According to the indicators, rapeseed meal is weakly shocked in the short term and strongly shocked in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and the short - term soybean meal trend. The subsequent trend needs further guidance from policies and soybean meal [42]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas; The export of Canadian rapeseed and the domestic processing demand; The arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; The rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and the downstream procurement situation [44]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2320. It is currently in a short - term weak oscillation, affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the outcome of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. Overall, it will maintain a short - term oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2260 and 2320. The market is affected by soybean meal, technical factors, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the price, maintaining a short - term oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports to China. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final tariff policy depends on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a possibility of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 5th to 13th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 608 to 701. The rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated, and the spot price followed. The spot price was at a relatively high premium. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract rebounded from a low level [13][15][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week and a 100% year - on - year decrease compared to 22,000 tons last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume was zero [9][25][27]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The short - term decline of rapeseed oil may slow down. The current supply of rapeseed oil is tight, but the long - term supply pressure increases, and the demand remains mainly for rigid needs [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 8,847 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2,349 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 1 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 54 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main contract for rapeseed oil is 204,202 lots, up 4,135 lots; the open interest of the main contract for rapeseed meal is 620,191 lots, up 15,829 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 28,231 lots, up 478 lots; for rapeseed meal is - 49,792 lots, up 7,211 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,876, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 613.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5,479 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the oil - meal ratio is 3.75, down 0.04 [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,428.75 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7,533.28 yuan/ton, up 238.59 yuan [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 446 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 61 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,370 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 10,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 5,000 tons, down 1,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0 tons, down 20 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 298,000 tons, down 24,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 179,100 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4,000 tons, down 1,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 240,000 tons, down 8,000 tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4,800 tons, down 4,200 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.99%, up 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.98%, up 0.33% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.68%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%, down 0.23% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.13%, down 0.39% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.94%, up 1.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.21% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On December 22 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, ending six consecutive trading days of decline. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract rose 18.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 612.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - Indonesia has launched a road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to take about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. 3.9 Key Points of Attention - The operating rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region reported by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "Oscillation" rating for the investment view of the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the single - side and spot basis. If there are no significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, which will drag down the pricing of domestic bean meal. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that the new - crop production in Brazil in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 78%. As of November 26, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 36%. Short - term weather has no obvious drought problems, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybean and bean meal are expected to seasonally destock. The domestic bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, and the reserve release situation needs to be monitored. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The global rapeseed production is expected to have a recovery increase in 2025/26 [5]. - **Demand**: For livestock and poultry, the short - term high inventory is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream trading of bean meal is normal, and the提货 performance is good, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period, the destocking of bean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of bean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is continuously destocking [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5]. - **Profit**: The crushing profit of new - crop soybean purchases in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of the basis, the recent price of the bean meal futures is at a moderately high valuation level [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The China - US soybean procurement agreement has been reached, and China has begun to purchase US soybeans successively, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market [5]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a single - side oscillation and a positive spread between M3 and M5. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of粕类 - **Inventory - to - Use Ratio**: In November, the stock - to - use ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed decreased [28][34]. - **Planting Progress**: As of relevant dates, the soybean planting rate in Brazil and the planting progress in Argentina are as mentioned above. There are also data on the global rapeseed production, production distribution, and Brazilian planting progress, etc. [5][38][44]. - **Domestic and Foreign Market Data**: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume are presented in the data. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean gross profit, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profit. The domestic soybean and rapeseed import volumes, inventory data, oil mill operating rates, crushing volumes, bean meal and rapeseed meal trading volume,提货 volume, price difference data, feed production volume, and livestock and poultry breeding profit and related data are also provided [47][54][58].