曾被视为"避险常客"的日元，其稳固地位正遭遇越来越多的质疑，不仅让日元承受更大抛售压力，本周更 是跌至八个月来的低位。 尤其是本周，强硬保守派人物高市早苗意外赢得日本执政党领袖选举后，市场对日本政策走向的担忧加 剧，美元兑日元汇率顺势突破150关键关口，日元贬值压力进一步释放。 在日元吸引力下降的同时，投资者正加速转向其他对冲工具。高盛集团和美国银行的策略师认为，瑞士法 郎比日元更可靠且成本更低，本周瑞士法郎兑日元汇率连续创下历史新高，却仍挡不住多头入场。黄金、 白银凭借传统避险属性。 短期来看，全球波动率下降降低了紧急对冲需求，日元融资套利交易重新流行，这让日元逐渐脱离历史上 的避险角色，更容易被投机资金左右。 从亚洲金融危机到俄乌冲突等各类市场动荡时刻，日元总能凭借独特优势成为投资者的"避风港"。原因是 日本长期保持庞大的经常账户盈余，出口贸易带来的持续外汇收入，让日本拥有充足的外汇储备，一旦市 场出现风险，本土投资者会迅速回流资金，增持日元资产，推动日元汇率走高。 同时，过去日本政治体系稳定，政策变动平缓，加上深厚的本土投资者基础，进一步强化了日元的可靠 性，使得它在风险资产暴跌时，总能展现出较强的抗跌 ...

但如今这一惯性思维正受到冲击：一方面，日元作为对冲工具的表现愈发不稳定；另一方面，市场转向黄金等资产、规避主要货币的趋势也削弱 了日元地位。本周，强硬保守派人物高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）意外赢得日本执政党领袖选举后，美元兑日元汇率突破150这一关键关口。 "从历史上看，我们曾多次从对冲角度做多日元，因为在上一轮周期中，当市场出现大规模避险情绪时，日元的表现相当可靠。"施罗德投资管理 公司（Schroder Investment Management）亚洲多元资产投资主管近藤惠子（Keiko Kondo）表示，"但目前，我们没有足够理由选择这种对冲方式 ——成本更高，可靠性却更低。" 音频由扣子空间生成 在全球局势紧张的时期，日元的避险地位正面临越来越多的质疑，这可能加剧日元抛售压力，该货币本周已跌至八个月低点。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 数十年来，从金融危机到地缘政治冲突，每逢市场动荡，投资者都会转向日元避险。背后逻辑很简单：日本庞大的经常账户盈余、稳定的政治体 系以及深厚的本土投资者基础，使日元在风险资产暴跌时成为可靠的避风港。 日元地位的转变，体现在相关性的重大变化中。近期，美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar (USD) has raised concerns about the implications for Taiwan's insurance industry and overall economy, driven by a combination of external pressures and internal financial strategies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - On May 2, the TWD experienced a 3% increase, followed by a 4% rise on May 5, marking the highest level since February 2023 and the largest single-day increase since 1988 [3][5]. - The USD/TWD exchange rate fell below 29, but later rebounded to around 30, indicating volatility in the currency market [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the TWD's appreciation cannot solely be attributed to Taiwan's stock market recovery or economic strength, as external factors like US tariffs and trade negotiations play a significant role [5][7]. Group 2: Impact on Insurance Sector - Taiwanese life insurance companies have significant exposure to USD assets, with a mismatch in their currency holdings leading to substantial risks, estimated at over $460 billion, which is more than 60% of Taiwan's GDP [12][10]. - The surge in the TWD has resulted in considerable losses for these companies, prompting them to hedge their USD exposure aggressively [12][10]. - UBS reports that the imbalance in the market could lead to a potential sell-off of up to $1 trillion if companies adjust their hedging strategies, which could further impact the TWD's value [10]. Group 3: Central Bank's Role - The Central Bank of Taiwan has faced challenges in intervening in the currency market due to external pressures from trade tensions and rising US bond yields [13][14]. - Some analysts believe the Central Bank may be intentionally allowing the TWD to appreciate to mitigate trade surpluses with the US, similar to strategies employed in the 1980s [13][14]. - The ongoing volatility in the currency market is seen as a precursor to broader financial restructuring globally, with potential long-term implications for Taiwan's export competitiveness and the insurance sector's solvency [13][14].