Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating the last interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve this year, with a consensus leaning towards a rate cut. The potential new chair has indicated that the negative impact of a government shutdown on the economy is greater than expected, but a stronger economic rebound is anticipated in Q1 next year, suggesting that a "cautious rate cut" is appropriate, with a prediction of a 25 basis point cut in December [1][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall Hong Kong stock market has experienced a pullback, but there is a noticeable trend of capital inflow, particularly into the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130), which has seen a net inflow of 2.478 billion yuan over the past month, bringing its total size to 42.862 billion yuan and shares to 5.8522 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 25.5 billion shares [1][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 23.29 times, which is at the lower end of the past five years' range, making it more attractive compared to the Nasdaq's 42.21 times and the STAR Market's 152.29 times [1][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Hong Kong Tech Sector - The external environment suggests that maintaining monetary easing is crucial, especially with a weak job market, and a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut could alleviate global liquidity pressures, benefiting interest-sensitive Hong Kong tech assets [2][7]. - Internally, continuous inflow of southbound funds, improving profitability of leading companies, and low valuation levels are expected to provide resilience for the Hong Kong tech sector [2][7]. - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on liquidity turning points and sectors that have undergone significant adjustments, such as technology and pharmaceuticals, while also considering alpha opportunities in consumer goods [2][7]. Group 3: Hang Seng Tech ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes 30 strong R&D internet platforms and tech manufacturing companies, covering various sectors such as internet, media, software, automotive, and semiconductors, making it a comprehensive and representative index [3][7]. - The ETF offers advantages such as large scale, superior liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with a management fee of only 0.2% per year, positioning it as a key tool for investors looking to invest in core Hong Kong tech assets [3][7].

责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 凯文·哈塞特表示，现在是美联储 "谨慎降息"的好时机，他预计美联储下周将采取这一行动。 被视为美联储主席候选人领跑者的哈塞特在福克斯商业频道发表讲话。 凯文·哈塞特表示，现在是美联储 "谨慎降息"的好时机，他预计美联储下周将采取这一行动。 被视为美联储主席候选人领跑者的哈塞特在福克斯商业频道发表讲话。 ...

Core Insights - The dramatic drop in gold prices is attributed to multiple market factors, with a single-day maximum decline of 28 CNY per gram observed [1] - The price of gold jewelry from major brands has seen significant reductions, with notable drops from Chow Sang Sang, Lao Miao, and Lao Feng Xiang [1] - International gold prices also experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold falling over 3% and silver dropping more than 6% [1] Group 1: Price Decline Data - Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price fell from 1281 CNY/gram to 1253 CNY/gram, marking a single-day drop of 28 CNY/gram [1] - Lao Miao's price decreased by 17 CNY to 1262 CNY/gram, while Lao Feng Xiang's price dropped by 22 CNY to 1258 CNY/gram [1] - The actual savings for consumers are limited due to high processing fees, with savings on a 30-gram gold bracelet estimated at only 500-700 CNY [1] Group 2: Causes of Price Drop - A sudden decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, such as progress in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire talks and a calming of the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] - A strong U.S. dollar, bolstered by cautious signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, has put pressure on gold prices [3] - Technical selling triggered by profit-taking after a significant year-to-date increase in gold prices of over 55% [4] - Policy adjustments, including an increase in margin requirements for gold contracts by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, forced leveraged investors to liquidate positions [5] Group 3: Market Reactions - High-position buyers expressed anxiety and frustration over recent price drops, with social media comments reflecting their discontent [6] - Observers anticipating further price corrections are actively discussing potential future price levels [6] - Rational consumers are seizing the opportunity to purchase practical items, leading to a threefold increase in inquiries at the Shenzhen Shui Bei market [6] - Long-term investors view the price correction as an opportunity to increase their holdings, with central bank gold purchases continuing for 11 consecutive months [6] Group 4: Future Trends and Recommendations - Institutions predict a support level for gold prices at 1200 CNY/gram, with potential fluctuations of 5%-10% if the Federal Reserve's October decision is hawkish or if geopolitical tensions resurface [7] - Long-term bullish outlooks from firms like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America project gold prices to reach 4000-5000 USD/ounce by 2026, driven by central bank purchases and a potential U.S. dollar credit crisis [8] - Recommendations for consumers include focusing on practical purchases and being cautious of processing fee traps, as well as considering gold ETFs for investment [9][10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on October 28-29, but the government shutdown has led to the absence of key economic data, creating a more ambiguous policy-making environment [1] - Fed officials are inclined to adopt a "slow and steady" approach under incomplete information, potentially lowering interest rates by 25 basis points to continue the easing cycle while avoiding directional errors [1][2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a prolonged shutdown could not only delay data releases but also impact data collection, making decision-making increasingly difficult [1] Group 2 - The lack of official data complicates the assessment of whether the labor market is weakening, demand is slowing, and the persistence of inflation shocks, according to Fed Governor Waller [1] - Local Fed voices reflect a cautious rate-cutting tone, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggesting support for a rate cut if labor market weakness continues and inflation expectations remain anchored, while cautioning against excessive easing before inflation is fully contained [1] - Boston Fed President Collins acknowledged that balancing inflation control and labor market easing is more challenging in the absence of data [2]

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 31,382 kilograms to a total of 1,189,648 kilograms as of September 29 [1] - The main silver futures contract opened at 10,651 CNY/kg, reached a high of 11,008 CNY/kg, a low of 10,645 CNY/kg, and closed at 10,939 CNY/kg, reflecting a 3.92% increase [1] - The overall PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, indicating a slight increase from July's 2.6%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - The core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with July's growth and analyst predictions [1] - The market is currently pricing an 88% probability for a rate cut in October and a 65% probability for another cut in December, supporting silver prices [1] - Upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials may influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, potentially impacting silver prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The cautious approach to interest rate cuts should be understood as a readiness to respond to future economic changes and maintain vigilance [1] Group 1 - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, emphasizes the importance of being alert to economic shifts while considering interest rate adjustments [1]