美国总统特朗普12日再次向委内瑞拉政府发出威胁，宣称将"很快"启动针对该国贩毒集团的地面行动， 并强调陆路行动相对容易执行。地缘危机持续支撑黄金。 另外投资者正密切关注本周即将公布的关键经济数据，特别是美国非农就业报告，将于12月16日发布。 分析师指出，黄金当前处于强势通道，基本面和技术面均支持进一步上涨，目标指向4350-4400美元区 间。同时关注美元走势和美债收益率，如果美元继续疲软，金价上行空间将进一步打开。地缘上关注美 乌和平计划进展，可能引发避险情绪升温。 周一(12月15日)亚洲时段，现货黄金延续强势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4325.79美元/盎司，上涨 0.55%，最高触及4329.61美元/盎司，最低下探4297.39美元/盎司。美联储年内第三次降息强化了明年继 续宽松的预期，同时全球不确定性推升避险需求支撑金价走高，目前接近前期高点附近，短期或将面临 宽幅震荡，若美元指数继续走低，则不排除金价向上加速的可能性。 美联储上周的降息决定并非一致通过，多位官员表达了反对意见。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德直言通 胀"过热"，反对本次降息，认为货币政策应保持适度紧缩。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也反对近期降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in Bitcoin's price, termed "Black Friday," was primarily driven by institutional sell-offs of Bitcoin ETFs, leading to a market panic and widespread liquidation of positions [1][4][26]. Group 1: Bitcoin Price Drop - On November 21, Bitcoin fell below $82,000, nearing the $80,000 mark, representing a 35% decline from its historical high of $126,000 on October 6 [1]. - Over a 24-hour period, the total liquidation across the network exceeded $1 billion, affecting hundreds of thousands of traders [1]. Group 2: Bitcoin ETF Explanation - Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding the actual asset, functioning similarly to traditional ETFs [7][8]. - The approval of Bitcoin ETFs by U.S. regulators in January 2024 was influenced by a legal defeat for regulators against a crypto company and the involvement of major financial institutions like BlackRock [7][8]. Group 3: Institutional Selling - Institutions began to sell off Bitcoin ETFs in response to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, indicating a prolonged period of high interest rates [10][26]. - The sell-off was characterized as a risk-averse strategy, with institutions prioritizing the liquidation of high-beta assets like Bitcoin [21][22]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on November 20 emphasized the persistence of inflation and the unlikelihood of interest rate cuts, suggesting a new normal of high rates [11][12][14]. - The expectation of higher yields on new government bonds prompted institutions to sell off lower-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [15][17][26]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Panic Selling - The initial institutional sell-off triggered a panic among retail investors, leading to a cascading effect of further sell-offs and forced liquidations [24][26]. - The phenomenon of panic selling is likened to a "domino effect," where the fear of loss drives more participants to exit the market [24][25]. Group 6: Broader Economic Implications - The actions of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government reflect a complex relationship where the Fed aims to control inflation while the government seeks to stimulate economic growth [30][32]. - The situation illustrates the unpredictable nature of financial markets, where individual actions can lead to significant systemic outcomes [33].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a temporary rise due to increased risk aversion but fell back as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations, closing at $3984.80 per ounce, a decrease of 0.20% [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 153074, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking a seven-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 183% [1] Group 2 - Current precious metal prices lack significant drivers, with expectations of maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, particularly around the December trading window and the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are seen as core drivers of declining U.S. dollar credit, with gold being viewed as a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases [2]

Core Insights - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 68,628 kilograms, with an increase of 2,802 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 857.70 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 867.00 CNY and a low of 855.56 CNY, currently trading at 866.52 CNY, reflecting a 1.35% increase [1] - Trading volume stands at 333,591 contracts with an open interest of 263,220 contracts, showing a decrease of 1,085 contracts in daily open interest [1] Market Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as any hawkish comments could strengthen the USD and exert pressure on dollar-denominated commodity prices [2]

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 31,382 kilograms to a total of 1,189,648 kilograms as of September 29 [1] - The main silver futures contract opened at 10,651 CNY/kg, reached a high of 11,008 CNY/kg, a low of 10,645 CNY/kg, and closed at 10,939 CNY/kg, reflecting a 3.92% increase [1] - The overall PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, indicating a slight increase from July's 2.6%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - The core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with July's growth and analyst predictions [1] - The market is currently pricing an 88% probability for a rate cut in October and a 65% probability for another cut in December, supporting silver prices [1] - Upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials may influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, potentially impacting silver prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent statements from Iranian leadership suggest that nuclear negotiations with the U.S. are unlikely to succeed, increasing geopolitical tensions and risk aversion in the market [2] - U.S. Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicating a preference for only one rate cut this year, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are testing the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $3324 and support at $3252 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The U.S.-Iran negotiations have turned negative, with Iranian leadership asserting that talks will not yield results, which diminishes the likelihood of sanctions being lifted and supports higher oil prices [4] - Recent API data indicates an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.499 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, which is bearish for oil prices [4] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance at $64.84 and support at $62 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with potential for continuation of this trend [6] - Technical analysis indicates that the price is facing resistance at $4.65 and support at $4.50 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of stabilization after a recent decline, with the potential for upward movement if it finds support at the 20-day moving average [7] - Key support level to watch is at 37310 [7]