Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent statements from Iranian leadership suggest that nuclear negotiations with the U.S. are unlikely to succeed, increasing geopolitical tensions and risk aversion in the market [2] - U.S. Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicating a preference for only one rate cut this year, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are testing the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $3324 and support at $3252 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The U.S.-Iran negotiations have turned negative, with Iranian leadership asserting that talks will not yield results, which diminishes the likelihood of sanctions being lifted and supports higher oil prices [4] - Recent API data indicates an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.499 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, which is bearish for oil prices [4] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance at $64.84 and support at $62 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with potential for continuation of this trend [6] - Technical analysis indicates that the price is facing resistance at $4.65 and support at $4.50 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of stabilization after a recent decline, with the potential for upward movement if it finds support at the 20-day moving average [7] - Key support level to watch is at 37310 [7]