摘要周一（9月29日）亚欧时段，现货黄金在亚洲交易时段表现强势，盘中一度创下3819美元/盎司的历 史新高。当前市场整体看涨情绪浓厚，但同时也需警惕短期回调风险。 周一（9月29日）亚欧时段，现货黄金在亚洲交易时段表现强势，盘中一度创下3819美元/盎司的历史新 高。当前市场整体看涨情绪浓厚，但同时也需警惕短期回调风险。 随着美国2026财年（10月1日开启）临近，政府停摆最后期限日益紧迫。美国总统特朗普计划于周一（9 月29日）在白宫与国会四大领袖举行会晤，磋商拨款法案。若双方未能达成共识、无法通过立法获得资 金，美国政府部分部门将于周三（财年首日）正式停摆，这一不确定性持续推升市场避险情绪，成为金 价上涨的重要催化。 周一晚些时候，多位美联储核心官员将发表公开讲话，包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、克利夫兰联 储主席贝丝·哈马克、圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆、纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯及亚特兰大联 储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克。 由于当前市场对降息预期较高，若官员发表"鹰派言论"（如暗示推迟降息、担忧通胀反弹等），可能推 升美元汇率，进而对以美元计价的黄金价格形成打压；反之，若言论延续"谨慎宽松"基调，将进 ...

地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 144657 0 外运华东虹桥 189230 0 中工美供应链 526112 27818 合计 859999 27818 广东 深圳威豹 329649 3564 总计 1189648 31382 【基本面消息】 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货9月29日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计1189648千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加31382千克。 沪银主力短线维持震荡上涨格局，今日白银期货开盘报10651元/千克，最高触及11008元/千克，最低触 及10645元/千克，截止收盘报10939元/千克，上涨3.92%。 环比维度，整体PCE与核心PCE分别上涨0.3%和0.2%，数据整体呈现"温和通胀"特征。独立金属交易员 泰·王分析指出："月度PCE数据符合预期，仅个人收入与支出数据略高于预期0.1个百分点，这一数据不 会阻碍美联储在10月会议上继续实施谨慎降息。"根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具，当前市场对10 月降息的定价概率已回升至88%，12月再次降息的概率亦达65%，政策宽松预期持续为银价提供支撑。 周一晚些时候，多位美联储核心官员将发表公开讲话，包括美联储理事克里斯托 ...

Group 1 - The core issue facing China's economic growth is insufficient demand and confidence, which are interrelated [4] - Current macroeconomic policies in China have been significantly strengthened, with an emphasis on both short-term stimulus and long-term structural reforms [5][7] - The unique approach of using non-price tools and administrative measures in macroeconomic policy is linked to China's transitional economy and underdeveloped market mechanisms [7] Group 2 - It is important to elevate the pursuit of moderate inflation to the same level as the goal of medium-speed economic growth, as low inflation can harm the economy [8] - Immediate implementation of planned fiscal expenditures is necessary, shifting focus from "heavy investment, light consumption" to supporting consumption growth [8] - Utilizing sovereign credit to stabilize the market and restore confidence is recommended, with the central government taking on certain responsibilities [8] Group 3 - Structural reform policies must keep pace with macroeconomic policy shifts to ensure sustainable economic progress over the next decade [10] - Increasing household income and improving social security are fundamental to expanding consumption, which is currently low in relation to GDP [10] - Local government investment attraction behaviors need to be regulated to prevent inefficiencies and over-concentration in certain industries [11][12] Group 4 - Effective market and proactive government roles must be balanced, with decision-making authority appropriately transferred to the market and enterprises [11] - Local governments should focus on core functions such as maintaining social order, ensuring fair competition, and providing public services, rather than solely on industrial policy [12]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, leading to increased pressure on fund managers, while the equity market continues to reach new highs [1][2] - On August 18, the bond market saw its most turbulent day of the month, with 10-year and 30-year treasury yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1][2] - Fund managers are feeling unprecedented pressure due to declining net values of bond funds amidst rising equity fund returns, leading to low investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The recent strong performance of the equity market contrasts sharply with the weakness in the bond market, particularly in long-term bonds, while short-term bonds remain relatively stable [3] - The current adjustment in the bond market is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation impacting bond asset attractiveness [3] - A lack of investment from smaller banks and limited redemption willingness from institutional clients are contributing factors to the bond market's pressure [3] Group 3 - Fund managers are actively seeking strategies to cope with market fluctuations, maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration while focusing on shorter-term rates less affected by steepening yield curves [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation around the 3600 level, with a generally optimistic outlook among investors, as indicated by high trading volumes. There are no systemic risk signals present, and the dual logic of "Chinese asset value reassessment + improvement in listed company quality" is just entering its mid-stage, suggesting that opportunities outweigh risks significantly [4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Avoiding the practice of chasing hot stocks is crucial, as it often leads to impulsive decisions that disregard initial investment logic and value considerations [7][8]. - The pyramid-style averaging down strategy is highlighted as a common pitfall, where investors tend to add funds at high market levels, increasing their cost basis and reducing risk tolerance [10][12]. - Frequent short-term trading without a solid rationale can lead to high transaction costs and missed opportunities, ultimately draining investor confidence and energy [14][15]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The current economic environment is characterized by concerns over deflation, but historically, currency devaluation and mild inflation have been the prevailing trends. This context suggests that reasonably priced assets may serve as effective hedges against mild inflation in the future [16]. - The ongoing debate around the 3600 point level emphasizes the need for investors to maintain confidence in the long-term potential of the "Chinese asset value reassessment + improvement in listed company quality" narrative while correcting poor investment habits [16].

Core Insights - The German ETF (159561) has shown a strong performance with a 7.32% increase over the last three months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached a record high of 1.663 billion, also ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The ETF has experienced significant net inflows, totaling 127 million over the last three days, with a peak single-day inflow of 68.01 million [2] Performance Metrics - The German ETF has achieved a 36.61% increase in net value over the past year [2] - The highest monthly return since inception was 6.97% [2] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [2] Trading Activity - As of August 1, 2025, the ETF had a turnover rate of 7.58% with a trading volume of 124 million, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 195 million [1] - The latest margin buying amount reached 16.37 million, with a margin balance of 27.21 million [2] Tracking and Composition - The ETF closely tracks the German DAX index, which includes the 40 largest and most liquid blue-chip companies in Germany, reflecting key sectors such as high-end manufacturing and financial services [2] - The tracking error for the past month was 0.007%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2] Macro Economic Context - The harmonized CPI in Germany rose by 1.8% year-on-year in July, which is lower than the 2% increase in June, indicating a moderate inflation trend [2] - France's CPI has remained below 1% for six consecutive months, while Italy's CPI has decreased to 1.7% [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The recent US inflation data showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7% in June, the highest since February, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous 2.4% [1] - The core CPI also rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but slightly higher than the previous 2.8% [1] - The market anticipates a 62% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of nearly two cuts by the end of the year [1] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Indonesia, which will eliminate tariffs on US imports and involve Indonesia purchasing over $10 billion worth of US goods [2] - The agreement includes Indonesia committing to buy $15 billion in US energy, $4.5 billion in US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recent peak at 3374.0 after starting from 3250.0, with a recent pullback but maintaining a higher trading focus [5] - The moving averages indicate a bullish trend for gold, suggesting a buy on dips strategy around the support level of 3320.0 [5] - Silver prices have also shown a bullish trend, with a recent high of 39.10 and a recommendation to buy on dips around 37.60 [9]

Group 1 - The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a 0.1% increase in May, leading to an annual rate of 2.6%, indicating a more moderate inflation environment [1][3] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 248,000, the highest level since October of the previous year, suggesting potential labor market weakness [3] - The core PPI also rose by 0.1% in May, below economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, reflecting subdued inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - European Central Bank's Vice President expressed greater concern over weak economic growth rather than inflation risks, as Eurozone inflation fell to 1.9% in May [4] - UK economic data revealed a 0.3% contraction in April, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.1% decline, attributed to global trade tariffs and domestic tax increases [4] - Japanese investors slightly reduced holdings in overseas bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings in Japanese long-term bonds [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury issued $142 billion in bonds, indicating strong demand despite concerns over government debt and deficits [6] - The U.S. budget deficit for May totaled $316 billion, a 9% decrease from the previous year, but the year-to-date deficit increased by 14% to $1.36 trillion [7] - Legislation to create a stablecoin framework backed by U.S. debt could bolster the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially generating an additional $2 trillion in demand for U.S. bonds [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a positive shift following the release of May's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was lower than expected, leading to increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The May CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above April's 2.3% but below the market expectation of 2.5% [1]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both April's and market expectations of 0.2% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, matching April's increase but falling short of the expected 2.9% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4.95 basis points to 4.42%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 6.66 basis points to 3.95% [1]. - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before September increased by 12.7 percentage points to 70.4% [2]. Group 3: Government Actions and Statements - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin described the inflation data as "very good," noting that inflation is at its lowest level since 2021 due to slowing costs in housing, food, and energy [2]. - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $39 billion in 10-year notes with a yield of 4.421%, which was lower than the pre-auction market yield [2]. - The demand for the auction remained strong, with indirect bids accounting for 70.6% and direct bids at 20.5%, significantly above the recent averages [2]. Group 4: Fiscal Situation - The federal budget deficit expanded to $316 billion in May, bringing the cumulative deficit for the fiscal year to $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of the dividend style in 2024, analyzes the timing effects of the dividend style in a low interest rate environment from an overseas perspective, introduces dividend stock selection strategies and event effects, and provides an outlook on the future performance of the dividend style in the current low interest rate environment [1][10]. Group 1: Dividend Performance in 2024 - The dividend style showed strong performance in 2024, with excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index from 2021 to 2024, indicating a stable return profile [3]. - Since the end of May 2024, there has been a degree of internal differentiation within the dividend style, with financial and utility sectors maintaining stability while cyclical sectors experienced some pullback [3]. - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to dividend assets, as evidenced by the top holders of dividend ETFs [3]. Group 2: Timing of Dividend Style - The analysis draws on experiences from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan to assess how dividend and growth styles perform in low interest rate environments [4][14]. - Both dividend and growth styles performed well in low interest rate environments, with annualized returns of 21%, 11%, 8%, and 10% in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan respectively [4][15]. - Growth style is more sensitive to interest rate changes, with dividend style potentially having an advantage during periods of rising low interest rates [4][17]. Group 3: Dividend Stock Selection Strategy - A constrained dividend selection strategy, limiting industry and market capitalization deviations to within 5% of the CSI Dividend Index, achieved a stable excess return of 4.74% in 2024 and an annualized excess return of 7.65% since 2010 [6][33]. - Companies announcing high dividend plans typically achieve excess returns around the announcement date, with a notable effect observed in the period leading up to the ex-dividend date [6][38]. Group 4: Outlook for Dividend Style - The overall outlook for the dividend style in a low interest rate environment is positive, with expectations of absolute returns driven by interest rate trends and the influx of medium to long-term capital [7][37]. - The anticipated decline in interest rates in 2025 may favor growth style, but the expansion of medium to long-term capital inflows could further boost the dividend style [7][36].