Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report is bullish but fails to provide unexpectedly strong bullish factors, leading to a decline in soybean prices. The report tightens the 2025/26 US soybean balance sheet by reducing key data such as yield, total production, and ending stocks. Although there is no super - bullish news, the tightness of the US soybean balance sheet becomes normal. If US soybean export demand recovers later, its ending stocks may further decrease. The report provides support for US soybean prices, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have limited downside space. Currently, there are no further bullish factors, and upward momentum needs a market opportunity [1][43]. - Later, attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather. After the substantial progress in China - US economic and trade consultations, if China's purchases of US soybeans resume as expected, US soybean prices may have limited downside and potential upward momentum. As of now, South American soybean - growing regions have no major weather threats. If there are no major threats later, it is necessary to monitor when the market will start trading the pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest [2][44]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 November USDA Supply - Demand Report - **Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Adjustments in 2025/26** - **Production**: The global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 is 421.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.12 million tons compared to September. The US production is reduced by 1.3 million tons due to a slight decrease in yield, while other major producers like Brazil, Argentina, and China remain unchanged [4]. - **Consumption**: The global soybean consumption forecast for 2025/26 is 421.54 million tons, a decrease of 2.35 million tons compared to September. Consumption in the US decreases by 10,000 tons, Argentina by 1.7 million tons, and Brazil increases by 1 million tons, with no change in China [5]. - **Export**: The global soybean export volume forecast for 2025/26 is 187.97 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to September. US exports decrease by 1.36 million tons to 44.5 million tons, Argentina's increase by 2.25 million tons to 8.25 million tons, and Brazil's increase by 500,000 tons to 112.5 million tons [5]. - **Import**: The global soybean import volume forecast for 2025/26 is 186.41 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to September. Argentina's imports increase by 500,000 tons, with no change in China and the EU [5]. - **Ending Stocks**: The global soybean ending stocks forecast for 2025/26 is 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared to September, as the reduction in supply exceeds that in demand [8]. - **Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The global soybean stock - to - use ratio in 2025/26 is about 20.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The US ratio is 6.74%, a decrease of 0.16%. This indicates that the supply - demand balance sheets of global and US soybeans have tightened, which is bullish for soybean prices [8]. - **Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Situation in 2025/26** - The November USDA report slightly increases the global soybean meal ending stocks and marginally raises the stock - to - use ratio in 2025/26, having a slightly bearish impact. The global soybean meal production is forecasted at 286.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons compared to September; consumption is 283.24 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons; export volume is 81.55 million tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons; ending stocks are 18.27 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons; and the stock - to - use ratio slightly increases. Brazil's soybean meal ending stocks increase, while those of Argentina, India, the EU, and China slightly decrease, and the US remains unchanged [33]. 2. Later Focus - **US Soybean Exports**: After the substantial progress in China - US economic and trade consultations, the US soybean export is expected to return to normal. From late October to early November, China made small - scale purchases of US soybeans. The November USDA report decreased the US soybean export forecast instead of increasing it, possibly because the adjustment is based on actual export data, and the progress in China - US soybean trade consultations has not yet been reflected in the actual data. Later, the actual situation of China - US soybean trade should be monitored. If China's purchases gradually resume, the USDA reports may be adjusted accordingly [38]. - **South American Weather**: Since September 2025, soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have successively entered the planting season. As of early November, the planting progress in both countries is slow. There are weather issues but no major threats, so the market has not yet traded on South American soybean production. According to the latest weather forecast, in mid - to - late November, the main soybean - growing regions in Brazil and Argentina will have slightly less precipitation and normal temperatures, indicating no major weather threats currently. Later, continuous attention should be paid. If there are no major threats, it is necessary to observe when the market will start trading the pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the internal valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The market is expected to follow up on long orders to repair the crush spread, showing a volatile and upward trend. However, the current loose supply of domestic near - term soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height of the market. Attention should be paid to the driving evolution brought by subsequent Sino - US policies, adjustments in US Department of Agriculture reports, and South American weather changes [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang on October 31 was - 1, with a change of 23; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) was - 1, with a change of 23. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 78, with a change of 5. The M1 - 5 spread was 208, with a change of 13 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 46; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, with a change of 40; the main contract's disk spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 470, with a change of 22 [7] 3.2 Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may have room for downward adjustment, and the export expectation has room for upward adjustment. The supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight [7] - As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7] - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the far - month shipping schedule is slow [8] 3.3 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [8] - Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8] 3.5 Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the disk crush profit (yuan/ton), and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 are also presented in the report, with the Brazilian disk crush profit at - 248.00 yuan/ton and the premium change of - 15 cents per bushel [7] - Data on domestic port soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean meal inventory, major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and major oil mill operating rate over the years are also provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is under supply pressure, especially with the mediocre performance of the US soybean demand side, and the pressure on the carry - over inventory in the balance sheet is increasing. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and there is still significant pressure on soybean meal. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, and the price is also under pressure. The overall strategy is to be bearish on the single - side, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell call options [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The US soybean futures showed a slight rebound this week, mainly affected by the macro - aspect. The demand side of US soybeans still faces great pressure, and the inventory pressure persists. In the South American market, the weather in the Brazilian production area is favorable, the soybean sowing progress is relatively fast, and the overall supply pressure exists. After Argentina restored the tariff, the export pressure improved. The domestic soybean meal market supply - demand is relatively loose, and the spot has strengthened slightly due to the sharp decline in the futures. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is low, the oil mill operating rate is low, and the demand is also mediocre, with price pressure [4]. - **Strategies**: The single - side strategy is to remain bearish. The arbitrage strategy is M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage. The option strategy is to sell call options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Macro - aspect Slightly Eased, US Soybeans Oscillated**: The US soybean futures rebounded slightly this week due to the improvement in the macro - aspect. The US production area weather is dry, and the crop harvest is expected to progress well, but the yield per unit may be adjusted downwards. The US soybean export has not improved significantly, while the crushing performance is good, with the September crushing volume estimated at 197.863 million bushels. The demand for US soybean oil has also increased significantly [10]. - **South American Supply is Generally Sufficient, Prices Oscillated at High Levels**: Brazilian soybean prices remained high this week. The sowing progress reached 8.2% as of the week of October 4. The subsequent rainfall is expected to be relatively low, and the crop planting is progressing smoothly. Brazil's soybean export in October is estimated to reach 7.31 million tons. The soybean crushing profit has decreased, and the crushing volume is expected to decline, while the export proportion will increase. Argentina's soybean export pressure has improved [13]. - **Futures Pressure Increased, Spot Slightly Stabilized**: The domestic soybean meal futures continued to decline this week, which supported the spot to some extent. The decline was affected by the macro - aspect and the large subsequent supply pressure. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and the demand for soybean meal remained at a relatively high level, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [16]. - **Limited Demand Support, Rapeseed Meal Futures Continued to Decline**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures faced increasing downward pressure this week. The supply of domestic rapeseed tightened, and the inventory decreased to a low level. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal was relatively sufficient, with overall pressure still present [19]. Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, weekly crushing profit, Brazilian monthly export volume and crushing volume, Argentine export and monthly crushing volume, and foreign basis [23][26]. - **Macro - aspect: Exchange Rate & International Shipping**: It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [33][37]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import volume and weekly crushing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds [42]. - **Demand Side**: It includes the提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [45]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseeds + rapeseed meal are presented [49].