1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is experiencing significant gains, with soybean meal futures showing a price increase of approximately 3.06%, reaching a high of 3190.00 CNY/ton [1] - The USDA's August supply and demand report maintains the soybean meal production forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 59.85 million short tons, unchanged from July [1] - The EU's soybean meal import volume for the 2025/2026 season is reported at 1.98 million tons, down from 2.34 million tons last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) forecasts soybean meal exports for August to reach 2.27 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 1.74 million tons [1] - Domestic procurement pace for the fourth quarter is slow, with stable crushing rates at oil mills and increasing soybean meal inventories reaching annual highs [2] - The weather conditions in the U.S. soybean-producing regions are expected to experience high temperatures and low rainfall in the next two weeks, which may impact soybean quality and supply [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly research report of Guotai Junan Futures on agricultural products dated August 3, 2025, covering palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and peanuts [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may experience a short - term pullback as the macro - sentiment fades, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels. Soybean oil lacks effective drivers and should focus on the results of Sino - US negotiations. Soybean meal and soybean prices are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean weather and trade, and soybean driven by technical factors. Corn should focus on the spot market. Sugar is in range - bound trading. Cotton needs to pay attention to external market sentiment. Live pigs have a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the reverse spread is confirmed. Peanuts should focus on the weather in the producing areas [2][4][8][18][22][44][76][108][126] Group 4: Palm Oil Last Week's View and Logic - The positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the lack of continuous fundamental drivers and weak demand from India made it difficult for the price to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - After the bearish impact of the slightly increased inventory in the MPOB June report, palm oil started to rebound. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but it is unlikely to exceed 2.2 million tons. Indonesia may face the problem of lower - than - expected production. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to the reduction in US soybean oil supply. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room to correct, but there is also a risk of early de - stocking due to lower - than - expected production in July - August. The soybean - palm oil spread is not likely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [5][7] Group 5: Soybean Oil Last Week's View and Logic - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders reversed the weak domestic situation. The oil mills maintained a high - level of crushing and actively exported. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - The good rainfall in the US Midwest in mid - to - late July is beneficial to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will remain weakly volatile. If the trend of soybean oil exports continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international spread. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the future [8] Group 6: Soybean Meal and Soybean Last Week's Situation - Last week, US soybean prices fell due to good weather in the producing areas and trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices oscillated, and soybean prices were weak. The strength of domestic soybean meal was affected by the strength of rapeseed meal and trade - war concerns. The fundamentals of domestic soybeans changed little, and the price was affected by market sentiment and soybean price fluctuations [18] Next Week's Forecast - It is expected that the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean will oscillate. Soybean meal may be slightly stronger due to trade - war concerns, while domestic soybeans should focus on technical fluctuations [22] Group 7: Corn Market Review - In the spot market last week, corn prices fell slightly. In the futures market, the price also declined, and the basis strengthened [44][45] Market Outlook - CBOT corn fell last week due to favorable weather in the US agricultural area. Wheat prices were stable, and corn auctions continued. The corn starch inventory decreased. The corn supply - demand balance remains tight, and the focus should be on the spot market, especially the upward momentum in North China and the de - stocking speed of warehouse receipts in the northern ports [46][49] Group 8: Sugar This Week's Market Review - Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price decreased by 0.49%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price both declined, and the basis of the main contract increased significantly [76][77] Next Week's Market Outlook - Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level range - bound trading. Domestically, it will also be in range - bound trading, with the internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [78][106] Group 9: Cotton Market Situation - ICE cotton fell last week due to good growth of US cotton, average export sales data, and a strong US dollar. Domestic cotton futures fell by more than 4% due to concerns about low - quality warehouse receipts and a cooling financial market sentiment [108] Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of domestic cotton futures is temporarily in place, but it needs to wait for the financial market sentiment to stabilize. It is expected to oscillate around 13,600 yuan, and attention should be paid to policy trends and downstream demand [108][124] Group 10: Live Pigs This Week's Market Review - In the spot market, pig prices were weakly operating, with a decline in the price of piglets and a slight increase in the price of live pigs. In the futures market, prices were weakly oscillating, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [126] Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The futures price of the LH2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14,500 yuan/ton [127][128]