投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-3 九月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 油脂：短期或继续震荡调整，等待进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：关注下沿支撑，盘面料延续区间震荡 玉米/淀粉：贸易商提前布局囤货，情绪不易过度悲观 生猪：9月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 橡胶：胶价上行驱动有限，但下方支撑偏强 合成橡胶：盘面维持区间震荡 纸浆：现货成交清淡，纸浆期货核心驱动难定 棉花：棉价震荡整理，关注收购价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价偏弱运行 原木：弱现实与旺季预期博弈 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：9⽉出栏继续增加，猪价压⼒持续 逻辑：（1）供应：短期，9月计划出栏量预计保持环增趋势，猪源供应整 体充裕。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位波动，并且1月~ 7月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照仔猪→商品猪6个月出栏时间推算， 预计下半年生猪出栏呈增量趋势，周期仍受供应压制。长期，7月"反内 卷"政策引导生猪产业"降重+减产"，农业部、发改委、中畜协开会落 实政策精神，8月农业部继续表示"持续推进生猪产能综合调控"。但是 当前生猪养殖尚有利润，主动减产存在阻力，7月钢联、涌 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is experiencing significant gains, with soybean meal futures showing a price increase of approximately 3.06%, reaching a high of 3190.00 CNY/ton [1] - The USDA's August supply and demand report maintains the soybean meal production forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 59.85 million short tons, unchanged from July [1] - The EU's soybean meal import volume for the 2025/2026 season is reported at 1.98 million tons, down from 2.34 million tons last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) forecasts soybean meal exports for August to reach 2.27 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 1.74 million tons [1] - Domestic procurement pace for the fourth quarter is slow, with stable crushing rates at oil mills and increasing soybean meal inventories reaching annual highs [2] - The weather conditions in the U.S. soybean-producing regions are expected to experience high temperatures and low rainfall in the next two weeks, which may impact soybean quality and supply [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly research report of Guotai Junan Futures on agricultural products dated August 3, 2025, covering palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and peanuts [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may experience a short - term pullback as the macro - sentiment fades, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels. Soybean oil lacks effective drivers and should focus on the results of Sino - US negotiations. Soybean meal and soybean prices are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean weather and trade, and soybean driven by technical factors. Corn should focus on the spot market. Sugar is in range - bound trading. Cotton needs to pay attention to external market sentiment. Live pigs have a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the reverse spread is confirmed. Peanuts should focus on the weather in the producing areas [2][4][8][18][22][44][76][108][126] Group 4: Palm Oil Last Week's View and Logic - The positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the lack of continuous fundamental drivers and weak demand from India made it difficult for the price to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - After the bearish impact of the slightly increased inventory in the MPOB June report, palm oil started to rebound. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but it is unlikely to exceed 2.2 million tons. Indonesia may face the problem of lower - than - expected production. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to the reduction in US soybean oil supply. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room to correct, but there is also a risk of early de - stocking due to lower - than - expected production in July - August. The soybean - palm oil spread is not likely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [5][7] Group 5: Soybean Oil Last Week's View and Logic - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders reversed the weak domestic situation. The oil mills maintained a high - level of crushing and actively exported. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - The good rainfall in the US Midwest in mid - to - late July is beneficial to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will remain weakly volatile. If the trend of soybean oil exports continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international spread. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the future [8] Group 6: Soybean Meal and Soybean Last Week's Situation - Last week, US soybean prices fell due to good weather in the producing areas and trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices oscillated, and soybean prices were weak. The strength of domestic soybean meal was affected by the strength of rapeseed meal and trade - war concerns. The fundamentals of domestic soybeans changed little, and the price was affected by market sentiment and soybean price fluctuations [18] Next Week's Forecast - It is expected that the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean will oscillate. Soybean meal may be slightly stronger due to trade - war concerns, while domestic soybeans should focus on technical fluctuations [22] Group 7: Corn Market Review - In the spot market last week, corn prices fell slightly. In the futures market, the price also declined, and the basis strengthened [44][45] Market Outlook - CBOT corn fell last week due to favorable weather in the US agricultural area. Wheat prices were stable, and corn auctions continued. The corn starch inventory decreased. The corn supply - demand balance remains tight, and the focus should be on the spot market, especially the upward momentum in North China and the de - stocking speed of warehouse receipts in the northern ports [46][49] Group 8: Sugar This Week's Market Review - Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price decreased by 0.49%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price both declined, and the basis of the main contract increased significantly [76][77] Next Week's Market Outlook - Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level range - bound trading. Domestically, it will also be in range - bound trading, with the internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [78][106] Group 9: Cotton Market Situation - ICE cotton fell last week due to good growth of US cotton, average export sales data, and a strong US dollar. Domestic cotton futures fell by more than 4% due to concerns about low - quality warehouse receipts and a cooling financial market sentiment [108] Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of domestic cotton futures is temporarily in place, but it needs to wait for the financial market sentiment to stabilize. It is expected to oscillate around 13,600 yuan, and attention should be paid to policy trends and downstream demand [108][124] Group 10: Live Pigs This Week's Market Review - In the spot market, pig prices were weakly operating, with a decline in the price of piglets and a slight increase in the price of live pigs. In the futures market, prices were weakly oscillating, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [126] Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The futures price of the LH2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14,500 yuan/ton [127][128]