Group 1 - Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone indicates a 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession, yet global stock markets remain active, with U.S. stocks near historical highs [1] - The current market momentum is so strong that making bearish bets against the market seems irrational, despite signals of a slowing labor market [1] - Strong corporate earnings during the current earnings season and rising bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts contribute to the optimistic sentiment overshadowing concerns about tariffs [1] Group 2 - Swap traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by over 100 basis points by mid-2026, leading to increased liquidity in the cash market [2] - Trend-following investors control a significant portion of the funds flowing into "hot" stocks, indicating a short-sighted market behavior [2] - The prevalence of short-term strategies in U.S. stocks and suppressed volatility suggest that the upward trend is likely to continue in the near term [2]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为30%，这听起来像 是一个危险信号，但全球股市仍然活跃，因为与市场势头相反的押注"几乎显得不合常理"。 Paolo Schiavone在一份报告中表示："关键点在于，市场无法看得足够远。这就是为什么它会忽视衰退 风险。"他认为，投资者可能会无视潜在的劳动力市场放缓，而是将焦点放在充裕的流动性、以及人工 智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题上。 在强劲的企业盈利和对降息的押注掩盖了广泛关税影响担忧的背景下，美国股市接近历史高位。与此同 时，尽管经济增长可能正在放缓的数据信号出现，投资者仍纷纷回流科技巨头和人工智能概念板块。 掉期交易员目前预计，到2026年年中，美联储将降息逾100个基点。随着短期国债大量发行向货币市场 注入流动性，现金储备极为充裕。与此同时，自标普500指数从4月关税引发的抛售中反弹后，短线资金 已大举入市。 Paolo Schiavone表示，这些趋势跟随型投资者(CTA)现在掌控着大部分"热钱"股权流动。这导致市场出 现短视迹象，因为"他们的单一策略('让赢家跑')几乎不给基本面看空者留下空间"。他补 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a 30% probability of a U.S. recession, global stock markets remain active, indicating a potential irrationality in market momentum [1] - Investors are focusing on strong liquidity and structural growth themes like artificial intelligence and fiscal credit expansion, while potentially overlooking labor market slowdowns [1] - In the U.S. stock market, strong corporate earnings and bets on lower interest rates have driven stock prices close to historical highs, even amid concerns about comprehensive tariffs [1] Group 2 - A Goldman Sachs trader noted that due to the prevalence of short-term strategies and suppressed volatility, few are willing to short a still intact upward trend, suggesting the path of least resistance remains upward [2] - HSBC raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index by over 800 points to 6400, citing enthusiasm from artificial intelligence and a reduction in U.S. policy uncertainty [2] - The report indicates that AI trading is driving technology/AI stocks higher, which constitute about half of the S&P 500 index, while reduced policy uncertainty is benefiting other market sectors [2]

对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不 合常理"。 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出："关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。"他认为，投资者可能会忽 略劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 这位高盛交易员表示，由于短期策略盛行且波动性受到抑制，很少有人愿意与仍然完整的上升趋势作对。他指出，市场正显现出短视的迹象，因 为趋势跟踪投资者"单一的操作手册('让赢家继续跑')为基本面看空者留下的空间很小"。 在这种环境下，Schiavone认为阻力最小的路径仍然是向上，这解释了为什么市场能够在经济衰退风险升高的背景下保持强势。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱 投资者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后大举入市。 Schia ...

Core Viewpoint - A 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession may seem alarming, but global stock markets remain resilient due to current market momentum, making short-selling appear illogical [1] Group 1 - The market is unable to see far enough into the future, which is why it tends to overlook recession risks [1] - Investors may be ignoring the potential slowdown in the labor market, focusing instead on strong liquidity and structural growth themes such as artificial intelligence and fiscal credit expansion [1]