Group 1 - Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone indicates a 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession, yet global stock markets remain active, with U.S. stocks near historical highs [1] - The current market momentum is so strong that making bearish bets against the market seems irrational, despite signals of a slowing labor market [1] - Strong corporate earnings during the current earnings season and rising bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts contribute to the optimistic sentiment overshadowing concerns about tariffs [1] Group 2 - Swap traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by over 100 basis points by mid-2026, leading to increased liquidity in the cash market [2] - Trend-following investors control a significant portion of the funds flowing into "hot" stocks, indicating a short-sighted market behavior [2] - The prevalence of short-term strategies in U.S. stocks and suppressed volatility suggest that the upward trend is likely to continue in the near term [2]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为30%，这听起来像 是一个危险信号，但全球股市仍然活跃，因为与市场势头相反的押注"几乎显得不合常理"。 Paolo Schiavone在一份报告中表示："关键点在于，市场无法看得足够远。这就是为什么它会忽视衰退 风险。"他认为，投资者可能会无视潜在的劳动力市场放缓，而是将焦点放在充裕的流动性、以及人工 智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题上。 在强劲的企业盈利和对降息的押注掩盖了广泛关税影响担忧的背景下，美国股市接近历史高位。与此同 时，尽管经济增长可能正在放缓的数据信号出现，投资者仍纷纷回流科技巨头和人工智能概念板块。 掉期交易员目前预计，到2026年年中，美联储将降息逾100个基点。随着短期国债大量发行向货币市场 注入流动性，现金储备极为充裕。与此同时，自标普500指数从4月关税引发的抛售中反弹后，短线资金 已大举入市。 Paolo Schiavone表示，这些趋势跟随型投资者(CTA)现在掌控着大部分"热钱"股权流动。这导致市场出 现短视迹象，因为"他们的单一策略('让赢家跑')几乎不给基本面看空者留下空间"。他补 ...