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8月财政数据点评:财政支出趋弱,关注加码可能
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-18 09:12
Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[2] Group 2: Trends in Fiscal Income and Expenditure - General fiscal income growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in August 2025, down 3.3 percentage points from July[4] - General fiscal expenditure growth also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July[4] - Government fund income fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the slowdown in general fiscal income growth[20] Group 3: Government Debt and Support Measures - The large-scale support phase from government debt financing is nearing its end, with net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaling 8.5 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025[9] - The issuance progress of special bonds was 72%, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024[9] - Future fiscal support for the economy may weaken as the issuance of new government debt approaches its limit[3] Group 4: Economic Implications - The decline in fiscal support and the impact of external factors may lead to downward pressure on economic growth[3] - Retail growth for related products has slowed since June due to promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies[3] - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure was 57.3%, slightly below the five-year average of 58.8%[2]