英大证券研究所证券研究报告 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，虽然周一 A 股延续强势，不过，仍存结构性隐忧。驱动行情 的是"政策预期"与"情绪修复"，而非扎实的"基本面改善"。上行中可能还有震荡， 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数涨跌不一，个股涨少跌多，整体维持弱 势震荡格局。 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 密切关注两大因素 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 密切跟踪美联储议息会议与国内重要会议的进展，根据政策信号动态调整持 仓结构：若出现超预期利好，可适度提升仓位参与结构性机会；若政策不及预期 或海外风险升温，则应进一步收缩防线，聚焦核心资产。 操作上，轻指数，重个股。踏准板块轮动节奏，采取均衡配置、高抛低吸或 是占优策略。无论是科技成长方向（半导体芯片、泛 AI 主题及机器人行业等）， 还是顺周期行业（光伏、电池、储能、化工、煤炭、有色等），亦或是红利股（银 行、公用事业、"大象股"等），尽量选择有业绩支持的标的逢低布局，远离缺乏业 绩支撑的高 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market shows significant differentiation due to policy changes, data delays, and fluctuations in risk sentiment [1][2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown provides short-term certainty and prompts the recovery of previously delayed economic data [1][2] - Despite the recovery in market sentiment, the Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious stance, indicating that inflation has not yet reached a level that would justify interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The market is currently relying more on expectations for trading due to the delay in key data caused by the shutdown, leading to increased asset volatility [1][2] - Risk appetite in the market has been restored, with some funds flowing back into the stock market and high-beta assets, although the recovery is uneven across sectors [1][2] - The transition from a "defensive" to a "selective offensive" market approach resembles an emotional rebound rather than a trend-based recovery [1][2] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index stabilizes and rebounds, benefiting from the cooling of rate cut expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Gold is under pressure due to hawkish policy signals and rising yields, yet it remains within a strong support range [3] - Global stock markets continue to experience a volatile rebound, with significant structural differentiation among sectors [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets showed significant divergence due to policy adjustments, data delays, and fluctuations in risk sentiment [1] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown provided clearer policy signals, leading to a new pricing process for major assets [1] - The cautious stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts by year-end [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Important economic data was delayed during the shutdown, leading to increased reliance on expectations for trading [1] - Despite a short-term recovery in sentiment, investors remain wary of potential shocks from the backlog of economic data [1] - The absence of employment, inflation, and manufacturing data has increased volatility in certain assets, with data uncertainty being a major market disruptor [1] Group 3: Asset Class Performance - Market risk appetite has seen some recovery, with funds flowing back into equities and high-beta assets [1] - Structural differences in recovery are evident, with technology and growth sectors performing better, while energy and financial sectors are constrained by fundamentals and interest rate expectations [1] - Safe-haven assets have experienced mixed fund flows, with gold under pressure but maintaining key support levels [1][4][5] Group 4: Stock Market Dynamics - Global stock markets continued to show a volatile rebound, with significant structural differentiation [6] - High-valuation sectors exhibited greater volatility, while low-valuation cyclical sectors remained weak, indicating that investors have not fully shifted to a risk-on mode [6] - The core themes of the week include policy return, sentiment repair, and ongoing risks, with the end of the U.S. shutdown providing certainty but leaving Fed policy direction unclear [6]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a 6.1% decline in October, marking the first "red October" since 2018, following a deleveraging shock [1] - Despite the overall market pressure, BNB rose by 6.2% due to the launch of popular projects and the tokenization of a money market fund by China Merchants Bank [1] - Major tokens such as SOL, ADA, and DOGE saw declines exceeding 10% [1] Market Performance - The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi decreased by 4.85% [1] - The market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 3.54% [1] - Institutional demand for ETH remains strong, with treasury holdings reaching 5% of total supply [1] Future Outlook - The report suggests that November may see a recovery in market sentiment, with attention on the potential benefits from the end of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and improvements in US-China relations [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is traditionally a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets becomes more pronounced [2][8][10] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters is projected to exceed the annual target, suggesting that the pressure to implement large-scale counter-cyclical policies in the fourth quarter is lower than in previous years [10][11] - The report indicates that even if the economic growth continues to moderate in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not deviate significantly from the central level, the growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][18] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter is noted as a significant measure to support project initiation in the fourth quarter, which could leverage local matching investments and potentially create a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report suggests that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, indicating that the fiscal policy's focus may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing substantial new measures [11][18] - The report emphasizes that the short-term market dynamics are likely to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure rather than significant policy changes, with a notable recovery in market sentiment observed [4][14][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential for emotional recovery and risk preference resonance in the market, suggesting that the current low sentiment levels may lead to a phase of recovery, although this is subject to external shocks or internal sentiment weakening [4][14] - It is noted that the market's microstructure is currently similar to that of April, with sentiment indicators at a two-year low, reflecting a comprehensive pricing of negative factors [14][18] - The report concludes that while there is some room for fiscal policy intervention, the urgency is not as pronounced as in previous years, and the market's mid-term expectations have shifted significantly compared to earlier in the year [18]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 22, with the main silver contract rising over 3% and gold contracts increasing by more than 2% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1459.65 points, up 7.48 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals remain the market's highlight, with silver prices continuing to rise and spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, reaching new highs [2] - The market sentiment for gold and silver is overwhelmingly bullish due to ongoing positive factors and increased safe-haven buying amid rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation - The shipping index (European line) experienced a rebound, attributed to emotional recovery after a significant drop last week due to airline pricing adjustments during the off-season [2] - The market sentiment for shipping is stabilizing as the main contract transitions to a relatively busier season, with cautious expectations for further price declines [2] Group 4: Other Commodities - Oilseeds and oils showed an overall rebound, with prices for various soybean and oil products rising approximately 1% [3] - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant decline of 3.63%, driven by a lack of new stimulus from policies and a still loose supply-demand balance [4] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.67%, with a general downturn in the oil and gas sector as demand weakens with the arrival of the off-season [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil supply, the overall market is expected to face a widening supply-demand surplus, leading to a bearish outlook for crude oil prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that traders acknowledge the ongoing tension in the market, indicating that the sentiment has not yet dissipated [1] - The article raises a question regarding whether the recent increase in non-ferrous metal prices is a result of sentiment recovery or a genuine demand reversal [1]