文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 7 月广义财政收入同比 3.6% ， 6 月同比 2.8% ； 7 月广义财政支出同比 12.1% ， 6 月同比 17.6% 。 报告摘要 一、下半年"财政退坡"值得担心吗？ （一）什么是 " 财政退坡 " ？ 全国财政预算在每年 3 月制定完毕，若后续执行中无预算调整 （增发债务）， 则 财政明显前倾的年份， 下半年或面临支出增速掉档，称为"财政退坡" ； 如 2022 年，受新增专项债前置发行等因素影响 ， 上半 年广义财政支出同比 12.4% ，下半年仅为 -4.6% 。 （二）为什么今年下半年可能出现 " 财政退坡 " ？ 一种观点认为， 下半年财政力度回落或明显拖累经济、仍需超常规增量政策对冲 ：今年上半年， 财政靠前 发力、支出增速较高 （ 8.9% ，全年目标或约 3.4%~5.1% ， 详见报告 《财政三个关切思辩：规模、缺 口、乘数》 ） ：若年内不再推出超常规增量政策 ， 今年下半年广义财政支出或约 -0.4~2.1% ，为 2022 年以来同期 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In July, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 3.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in June[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure in July rose by 12.1% year-on-year, down from 17.6% in June[1] - The public fiscal revenue in July marked the highest monthly growth of the year, with tax revenue showing positive growth for four consecutive months[15] Group 2: Concerns about Fiscal Decline - "Fiscal decline" refers to a significant drop in expenditure growth in the second half of the year if no budget adjustments are made[2] - There is a risk of fiscal decline this year, with potential expenditure growth ranging from -0.4% to 2.1% in the second half, marking the lowest since 2022[9] - The gap between the first and second half of the fiscal expenditure growth could reach 6.8% to 9.3%, the largest since 2022[9] Group 3: Economic Impact and Adjusted Expenditure - Even without extraordinary fiscal policies, the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth in the second half is estimated to be between 4.1% and 6.7%, comparable to the first half's 4.5%[10] - The adjusted fiscal expenditure growth aligns with the economic growth target of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% for the second half[10] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic support from fiscal measures may not be significantly lower than in the first half[10] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector, including railways and aerospace, saw significant monthly growth rates of over 33%, 10%, and 8% respectively[18] - Social welfare expenditures contributed 3.5 percentage points to the expenditure growth in July, while infrastructure spending had a negative impact of 0.7 percentage points[33] - Government fund income growth slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to a decrease in land sale revenue growth to 7.2%[45]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of buying U.S. Treasury bonds on dips, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market as the Federal Reserve may resume easing policies [4][12]. Core Insights - U.S. CPI inflation data for February 2025 showed a decline, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.8%, below market expectations of 2.9% [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts mid-year, with a total of two cuts (50 basis points) anticipated for the year [4][9]. - Consumer confidence has significantly weakened, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer expectations index falling to 64.7, the lowest since December 2023 [7]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - February's CPI inflation decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while core CPI fell to 3.1% [4][5]. - The inflation peak has passed, with a notable decline in consumer spending and a potential contraction in Q1 2025 [7][19]. - The report highlights that service prices are supported by housing costs and wage growth, while core service price growth has slowed to 4.1% year-on-year [7][8]. Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends buying U.S. Treasuries when the 5-year yield approaches 4.3% and the 10-year yield approaches 4.5% [12][13]. - A shift towards a neutral foreign exchange trading strategy is suggested, with a long-term view of buying the U.S. dollar on dips [12][13]. Fiscal Outlook - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.15 trillion from October 2024 to February 2025, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [9]. - By March to September 2025, the fiscal deficit is projected to be limited to $720 billion, a decrease of 28.4% compared to the previous year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the February CPI inflation data in the U.S. fell below market expectations, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy as the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in the middle of the year [1][2][8]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The February CPI inflation rate decreased to 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while core CPI fell to 3.1%, also down 0.2 percentage points, marking a new low in the current inflation cycle [2][8]. - The decline in inflation marks the end of a four-month rebound, with commodity prices driving volatility and service prices dictating the overall trend [2]. - Consumer confidence has significantly weakened, with the University of Michigan's consumer expectations index dropping to 64.7, the lowest since December 2023, leading to a steep decline in U.S. goods consumption [2][4]. - Core goods prices saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, with energy goods dropping 2.8 percentage points to -0.9% [2][4]. Service Price Dynamics - Service prices continue to be supported by housing costs and wage growth, with core service prices decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1% year-on-year [4][8]. - Housing inflation remains resilient, with rent inflation stable at 0.3% month-on-month and year-on-year growth above 4% [4][8]. - Wage growth in the private service sector remains strong at 4.1%, contributing to sustained non-housing service inflation at 3.9% [4][8]. Forward-Looking Inflation Expectations - Inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target, with an anticipated average around 3% for the year, influenced by tariff impacts and fluctuating oil and used car prices [8][11]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart rate cuts mid-year, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points due to a projected decline in fiscal space [11][12]. Investment Strategy - The article recommends taking long positions in U.S. Treasuries, suggesting entry points at approximately 4.3% for 5-year yields and 4.5% for 10-year yields, given the likelihood of renewed monetary easing [14][15]. - The market's reaction to lower-than-expected inflation has been muted, with a slight increase in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities [14][15].