Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In July, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 3.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in June[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure in July rose by 12.1% year-on-year, down from 17.6% in June[1] - The public fiscal revenue in July marked the highest monthly growth of the year, with tax revenue showing positive growth for four consecutive months[15] Group 2: Concerns about Fiscal Decline - "Fiscal decline" refers to a significant drop in expenditure growth in the second half of the year if no budget adjustments are made[2] - There is a risk of fiscal decline this year, with potential expenditure growth ranging from -0.4% to 2.1% in the second half, marking the lowest since 2022[9] - The gap between the first and second half of the fiscal expenditure growth could reach 6.8% to 9.3%, the largest since 2022[9] Group 3: Economic Impact and Adjusted Expenditure - Even without extraordinary fiscal policies, the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth in the second half is estimated to be between 4.1% and 6.7%, comparable to the first half's 4.5%[10] - The adjusted fiscal expenditure growth aligns with the economic growth target of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% for the second half[10] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic support from fiscal measures may not be significantly lower than in the first half[10] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector, including railways and aerospace, saw significant monthly growth rates of over 33%, 10%, and 8% respectively[18] - Social welfare expenditures contributed 3.5 percentage points to the expenditure growth in July, while infrastructure spending had a negative impact of 0.7 percentage points[33] - Government fund income growth slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to a decrease in land sale revenue growth to 7.2%[45]

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the previous period [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest growth rate of the year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, which was a key factor in the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The growth in tax revenue in July was supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the strong correlation between price factors and tax revenue [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 62.5% in the first seven months, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.8%, indicating a continued emphasis on improving public welfare [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7% in the first seven months, amounting to 2.89 trillion yuan [4] - With the reduction of disruptions from extreme weather, infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the securities transaction stamp duty increased by 54.1% year-on-year, while corporate income tax decreased by 1.9%, personal income tax increased by 8%, domestic consumption tax increased by 1.7%, vehicle purchase tax decreased by 19.1%, and tariffs decreased by 7.7% [2] - The national government fund budget revenue for the first half of the year was 1.9442 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 1.4271 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - From April, monthly tax revenue has shown year-on-year growth, with April increasing by 1.9%, May by 0.6%, and June by 1% [2] Group 2 - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed, with declines of 2.2% and 3.7% in May and June respectively. Revenue from the paid use of state resources increased by 4.8%, while administrative fees grew by 1% [3] - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing employment and the economy. In the first half of the year, central government transfers to local governments reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [3] - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds were issued in the first half of the year to support major projects [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance has increased efforts to ensure basic livelihoods and introduced new measures to boost consumption, including childcare subsidies and gradually implementing free preschool education [4] - Two batches of long-term special bond funds totaling 162 billion yuan were allocated for the replacement of old consumer goods [4] - A pilot project for providing consumption subsidies to elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities has been initiated to alleviate their care costs [4]