装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好。前10个月，计算机通信设备制造业税收收入增长12.7%，电 气机械器材制造业税收收入增长7.9%，科学研究技术服务业税收收入增长14.8%，文化体育娱乐业税收收入 增长5.7%。 11月17日，财政部发布数据显示，全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续提高，累计增幅稳步回升。10月份， 全国一般公共预算收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%。其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.3%、4%。前10个月， 全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，增长0.8%，增幅比前9个月提高0.3个百分点。 一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成。10月份，全国税收收入2.07万亿元，增长8.6%，增幅与上月 基本持平。"税收收入持续较快增长，显示经济稳中有进对税源形成了有力支撑。"北京国家会计学院副院 长、教授李旭红表示。 前10个月，全国税收收入15.34万亿元，增长1.7%，增幅比前9个月提高1个百分点。其中，国内增值税、国内 消费税、企业所得税、个人所得税分别增长4%、2.4%、1.9%、11.5%，增幅比前9个月分别提高0.4个、0.2 个、1.1个、1.8个百分点。李旭红认为，主要税种 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in national general public budget revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in October, reaching 2.26 trillion yuan [1] - Tax revenue showed a significant increase of 8.6% in October, indicating strong economic support for tax sources [1] - The overall fiscal performance for the first ten months reflects gradual improvement in revenue, strong expenditure support, and continuous structural optimization [3] Revenue Performance - In the first ten months, national general public budget revenue totaled 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax saw growth rates of 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively, with notable increases in personal income tax [1][2] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 88.1%, reflecting an active capital market [2] Expenditure Trends - Total national general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, a 2% increase, with significant growth in social security and employment (9.3%), education (4.7%), and environmental protection (7%) [2] - The government is focusing on enhancing fiscal policy and increasing expenditure intensity to support key areas such as education, science and technology, and social security [2][3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The expenditure of 4.54 trillion yuan from various bond sources is aimed at stabilizing investment and growth [3] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain an active fiscal policy, ensuring strong support for key expenditures and expanding effective demand [3] - The recent Party Congress emphasized the importance of fiscal policy in achieving economic and social development goals [3]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue in China for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 16.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, with a notable recovery in growth rates observed in the third quarter [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Fiscal revenue growth has shown a quarterly recovery, with a decline of 1.1% in Q1, followed by a growth of 0.6% in Q2, and a significant increase in Q3, with July, August, and September showing growth rates of 2.6%, 2%, and 2.6% respectively [2]. - Tax revenue, which constitutes the main part of fiscal income, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with domestic value-added tax growing by 3.6%, and corporate income tax rising by 0.8% [3]. Sector Performance - The computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector saw a tax revenue increase of 12%, while the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector grew by 8.3% [3]. - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sector experienced a tax revenue growth of 5.5%, and the scientific research and technical service sector grew by 13.4% due to the ongoing digital transformation [3]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with state-owned resource usage income increasing by 4%, while penalty income fell by 7% [4]. Local Government Revenue - Local government revenue remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% in general public budget income, and 27 out of 31 regions reported positive growth [4]. Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure reached 20.81 trillion yuan, marking a 3.1% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in social security, education, health, and environmental protection expenditures [4]. - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.5%, but expenditure grew by 23.9%, driven by the accelerated use of bond funds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue growth in China has significantly improved in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a stable and upward trend in the overall economic operation [1][2]. Fiscal Revenue Growth - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Tax revenue was 132,664 billion yuan, growing by 0.7%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% [1][3]. - The quarterly breakdown shows a decline of 1.1% in Q1, a recovery to 0.6% growth in Q2, and a notable increase of 2.5% in Q3, reflecting a significant improvement [3]. - 27 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities reported positive revenue growth, with the domestic value-added tax, the largest tax type, increasing by 3.6% year-on-year [3][4]. Key Areas of Expenditure - Total general public budget expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year. Key areas such as social security and employment, education, and health saw growth rates of 10%, 5.4%, and 4.7%, respectively, marking the highest levels in nearly three years [6][7]. - Government fund budget expenditure reached 74,900 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 23.9%, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [7]. Measures to Support Economic Recovery - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local finances, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous year. This funding aims to help local governments manage existing debts and support effective investment projects [9][10]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to advance the issuance of the 2026 local government debt limit to facilitate project funding and ensure smooth fiscal operations [10].

Group 1 - National general public budget revenue for the first seven months reached 1,358.39 billion yuan, marking a 0.1% increase, the first positive growth this year [1] - The increase in fiscal revenue is supported by stable economic performance, with a recovery from a 1.6% decline at the beginning of the year [1] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment have shown effectiveness, with notable growth in cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors [1] Group 2 - Positive interaction between fiscal revenue and macroeconomic policies is evident, particularly in sectors like equipment manufacturing and modern services [2] - Tax revenue from industries such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and cultural services has maintained a high growth rate, supported by fiscal spending on "two new" policies [2] - The reliance on non-tax revenue is decreasing, indicating an improvement in the structure of fiscal revenue [2] Group 3 - Continued efforts are needed to maintain a positive cycle between fiscal policy and economic growth, with a focus on consumer spending and technological innovation [3] - The "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operational stability) must be prioritized to ensure social stability and economic order [3] - Central government has increased transfer payments to local governments to support fiscal capacity, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and addressing fiscal risks [3] Group 4 - To sustain the recovery of fiscal revenue, it is essential to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while implementing proactive fiscal policies [4]

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In July, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 3.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in June[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure in July rose by 12.1% year-on-year, down from 17.6% in June[1] - The public fiscal revenue in July marked the highest monthly growth of the year, with tax revenue showing positive growth for four consecutive months[15] Group 2: Concerns about Fiscal Decline - "Fiscal decline" refers to a significant drop in expenditure growth in the second half of the year if no budget adjustments are made[2] - There is a risk of fiscal decline this year, with potential expenditure growth ranging from -0.4% to 2.1% in the second half, marking the lowest since 2022[9] - The gap between the first and second half of the fiscal expenditure growth could reach 6.8% to 9.3%, the largest since 2022[9] Group 3: Economic Impact and Adjusted Expenditure - Even without extraordinary fiscal policies, the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth in the second half is estimated to be between 4.1% and 6.7%, comparable to the first half's 4.5%[10] - The adjusted fiscal expenditure growth aligns with the economic growth target of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% for the second half[10] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic support from fiscal measures may not be significantly lower than in the first half[10] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector, including railways and aerospace, saw significant monthly growth rates of over 33%, 10%, and 8% respectively[18] - Social welfare expenditures contributed 3.5 percentage points to the expenditure growth in July, while infrastructure spending had a negative impact of 0.7 percentage points[33] - Government fund income growth slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to a decrease in land sale revenue growth to 7.2%[45]

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the previous period [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest growth rate of the year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, which was a key factor in the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The growth in tax revenue in July was supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the strong correlation between price factors and tax revenue [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 62.5% in the first seven months, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.8%, indicating a continued emphasis on improving public welfare [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7% in the first seven months, amounting to 2.89 trillion yuan [4] - With the reduction of disruptions from extreme weather, infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue this year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue for the same period was 11.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% [1] - The domestic value-added tax generated approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, attributed to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with the year-on-year decline for the first seven months reducing from -1.2% in the first half to -0.3% [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed good tax revenue performance, with specific growth rates of 33% for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, and 12.7% for scientific research and technical services [6] Government Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months was 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.8% [10] - The total government expenditure, including special bonds, showed a strong increase of 31.7% [10] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund budget, grew by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, indicating robust fiscal support for economic growth [10]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the securities transaction stamp duty increased by 54.1% year-on-year, while corporate income tax decreased by 1.9%, personal income tax increased by 8%, domestic consumption tax increased by 1.7%, vehicle purchase tax decreased by 19.1%, and tariffs decreased by 7.7% [2] - The national government fund budget revenue for the first half of the year was 1.9442 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 1.4271 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - From April, monthly tax revenue has shown year-on-year growth, with April increasing by 1.9%, May by 0.6%, and June by 1% [2] Group 2 - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed, with declines of 2.2% and 3.7% in May and June respectively. Revenue from the paid use of state resources increased by 4.8%, while administrative fees grew by 1% [3] - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing employment and the economy. In the first half of the year, central government transfers to local governments reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [3] - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds were issued in the first half of the year to support major projects [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance has increased efforts to ensure basic livelihoods and introduced new measures to boost consumption, including childcare subsidies and gradually implementing free preschool education [4] - Two batches of long-term special bond funds totaling 162 billion yuan were allocated for the replacement of old consumer goods [4] - A pilot project for providing consumption subsidies to elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities has been initiated to alleviate their care costs [4]