来源|中国基金报 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数 下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模 上升。我国经济持续稳健增长，保持良好发展势头，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 02 金价高位震荡引多空分歧 今年以来，全球央行掀起"购金热"。世界黄金协会发布的2025年一季度全球黄金需求趋势报告显 示，一季度，全球央行净购金244吨，虽较上一季度有所放缓，但仍属于近三年同期购金量的常态 水平。 不过，5月份全球黄金ETF需求转负，流动性虽环比下降，但年初至今仍保持在较高水平。 市场分析认为，关税谈判进入关键阶段，不少投资者正在等待关税形势明朗化，叠加美联储降息预 期延后，黄金市场维持震荡格局，多空力量正围绕关键价位展开激烈争夺。 7月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33174 亿美 元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。这是我国外汇储备连续19个月站上3.2万亿美元大 关，也是连续6个月出现环比回升。 黄金储备方面，央行连续8个月增持黄金。同日，央行公布数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in geopolitical risks has led to a surge in gold prices, raising questions about the sustainability of the bullish trend in gold [2][3]. Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Prices - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is closely linked to geopolitical risks. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains uncertain, while tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continue to escalate. These factors are driving investor demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [3]. Favorable Factors for Gold Bullish Trend - **Global Economic Uncertainty**: Signs of slowing global economic growth are becoming more apparent, with major economies facing recession risks. Poor economic data from the U.S. has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - **Expectations of Monetary Policy Easing**: The Federal Reserve has raised inflation expectations while lowering growth forecasts, hinting at potential interest rate cuts. This easing monetary policy could lead to currency depreciation, further supporting gold prices [5]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, are increasing their gold reserves, which boosts physical demand and strengthens gold's position in the international monetary system [6]. Challenges Facing Gold Bulls - **Potential Easing of Geopolitical Risks**: If geopolitical tensions ease through negotiations, investor demand for gold may decline, leading to price corrections. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine talks illustrate this potential shift [7]. - **Uncertainty in Dollar Performance**: The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices is typically negative. A strengthening dollar, driven by positive U.S. economic data or hawkish Fed signals, could pressure gold prices [9]. - **Market Sentiment Volatility**: Investor sentiment significantly impacts gold prices. Changes in market dynamics or reduced concerns over geopolitical risks could weaken bullish sentiment in the gold market [10]. Technical Analysis Outlook - Recent price movements have seen gold break through key resistance levels, suggesting a strengthened bullish outlook. If gold can maintain levels above $3,435 or $3,500, the bullish trend may continue, potentially reaching new highs [11]. Timeframe for Gold Bullish Trend - The bullish trend in gold is expected to persist in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks. However, any signs of easing tensions could lead to a rapid market response. In the medium to long term, factors such as global economic uncertainty, easing monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases are likely to provide solid support for gold prices [12].