Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total volume of the financial industry grew. The logistics and transportation in the service industry showed steady growth, with positive year - on - year growth in imports, exports, and exports in June, and the growth rates were rising. The upstream energy prices were volatile, and the prices of some agricultural products rebounded. The开工 rates of some chemical products in the mid - stream recovered, and the real - estate sales in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low, while the number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Production Industry - **Coal Industry**: The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized maintaining safety, scientific production, improving supply quality, and promoting market balance. It will act as a bridge between the government and enterprises to deal with risks [1]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The EU may impose additional counter - tariff measures on US$84 billion worth of US imported goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [1]. 2. Service Industry - **Monetary and Credit Data**: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [2]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [2]. 3. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices fluctuated [2]. - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices rebounded [2]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: The operating rates of urea and PTA recovered, while the operating rates of PX and polyester remained stable [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4]. 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 13, the credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 54.16 last week to 49.63 this week, and the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 33.69 last week to 30.03 this week [51]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 11, the prices of various industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2351.4 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%, and the spot price of palm oil was 8944.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [52].

报告摘要 景气向上 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数上行。截 至 4 月 20 日，该指数为 5.71% ，环比前一周上行 0.86 个点。 4 月以来该指数上行的主要驱动因素包括： 1 ）沥青开工率 ： 3 月 27 日至 4 月 23 日的沥青开工率 四周均值为 28% ，相比 3 月 6 日 -4 月 2 日四周的均值 27% 上行 1 个百分点。 2 ）钢厂线材产 量 ： 4 月 18 日当周钢厂线材产量同比为 4% ，相比 3 月 28 日当周的 -8% 上行 12 个百分点。 2 、中上游开工率偏强。 焦化、 PTA 、 PVC 、唐山高炉同比、环比均好于去年同期 / 前一周。 景气向下 1 、耐用品消费： 4 月前三周，汽车零售继续回落。 4 月第三周，乘用车零零售增速 17% ，前值 13% 。 4 月前 20 日，乘用车零售增速同比 11.8% 。 3 月全月，乘用车零售增速同比 +14.4% 。 2 、土地：周度溢价率明显回落。 截至 4 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 4.27% ，近三周平均为 7.7% ； 3 月全月为 13.24% ； 2 月全月为 10.72% 。 3 、水泥发运 ...