瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.9」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体大幅上涨，科创50涨超9%。四期指亦集体走高，中小盘股 强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，为2026年第一个交易周，市场迎来开门红。元旦假期前公布的12月 PMI指数以及周五公布的12月通胀数据均明显回升，经济景气重回扩张区间叠加通胀回暖在 宏观层面对股市起到向上推动。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周大幅回升，北向资金成交再度 活跃。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | 3.13 | 0.71 | 4743.8 | | | IH2603 | 3.63 | 0.62 | 3134 ...

据日本NHK电视台网站报道，日本高市早苗政府在一个最新民调中，创下了一项自1998年以来的最差 纪录。 根据NHK的介绍，这项于今年10月至11月期间进行的民调，是请3000名18岁以上的日本民众，就"当前 日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域""当前日本正朝良好方向发展的领域"等问题作答。 据日本NHK电视台网站报道，日本高市早苗政府在一个最新民调中，创下了一项自1998年以来的最差 纪录。 根据NHK的介绍，这项于今年10月至11月期间进行的民调，是请3000名18岁以上的日本民众，就"当前 日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域""当前日本正朝良好方向发展的领域"等问题作答。 结果，"物价"在日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域中高居榜首，有多达73%的受访者选择该选项。NHK称， 这不仅比上一轮的调查上升了2个百分点，同时也创下了自1998年此项调查启动以来的最高纪录。 结果，"物价"在日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域中高居榜首，有多达73%的受访者选择该选项。NHK称， 这不仅比上一轮的调查上升了2个百分点，同时也创下了自1998年此项调查启动以来的最高纪录。 有52%的受访者还认为"经济景气"也是日本正在恶化的领域，41%的受访者认为 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国初请失业金人数大幅上升，9月贸易逆差显著收窄，10月JOLTs职位空缺数超预期。②日本第三季度GDP终值超预期下 修。③欧央行行长拉加德称，欧元区在面对美国关税攻势时展现出超出预期的韧性。 1、美国零售销售回落 。12月5日当周，美国红皮书商业零售同比降至5.7%，前一周为7.6%。 2、地产：美国抵押贷款利率回升，抵押贷款申请数量回升 。12月11日，美国30年期抵押贷款利率6.22%，前一周为6.19%，前两周为6.23%。12月5 日当周，美国MBA市场综合指数（反映抵押贷款申请数量情况）升至327.9，环比前一周上涨4.8%。 四、物价 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、地产（房贷申请数量回升）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零售同比边 际回落）、物价（大宗价格回落、美国汽油零售价回落）、就业（初请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日元兑美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In July, due to entering the traditional production off - season and factors like high - temperature, rainstorm and flood disasters in some areas, the business activities of enterprises slowed down. The three major PMIs declined but remained above the critical point, and the overall economic output in China continued to expand. However, demand was weak in the short - term, and production and price trends were complex. The export's role in driving the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3% (expected 49.7%, previous value 49.7%); non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (expected 50.2%, previous value 50.5%); comprehensive PMI was 50.2% (previous value 50.7%). The three major indexes all declined, indicating a slowdown in economic prosperity, but the overall economic output remained in the expansion range [1]. 3.2 Investment - Real estate investment remained weak. Although sales and capital sources improved, investment - side policies were restricted. Infrastructure investment slowed down due to factors like high - temperature and flood disasters affecting construction progress, despite accelerated special bond issuance. Manufacturing investment slowed down but continued to grow at a high speed, and short - term restocking motivation of manufacturing enterprises declined [2]. 3.3 Consumption - The growth rate of consumption slowed down, but its driving effect on the economy remained strong [2]. 3.4 Export - Exports maintained resilience due to the mitigation of external shocks, but as the US restocking demand weakened in the future, export growth might slow down, and its driving effect on the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. 3.5 Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. New order index and production index both declined, indicating a slowdown in market demand and a continued but decelerated expansion in production. New export order index declined, showing a slowdown in external demand, while import demand rebounded. Price indexes rebounded, and both finished - product and raw - material inventory indexes declined [3][4]. 3.6 Non - manufacturing - The non - manufacturing business activity index in July was 50.1%, still above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down. Some service - related industries were in a high - level prosperity range, while real estate and other industries had weak prosperity. The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points. Most service enterprises were optimistic about the market, while the construction industry's market expectation declined [5]. 3.7 Comprehensive - The comprehensive PMI output index in July was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall business activities of enterprises in China continued to expand but at a slower pace [6].

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights significant economic data from the US and Eurozone, indicating mixed signals in economic activity and demand trends [2][4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and employment statistics as indicators of economic health [9][25] Group 1: Important Data Review - In June, US durable goods orders saw a preliminary month-on-month decline of 9.3%, the largest drop since April 2020, while the manufacturing PMI for July hit a new low of 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 [12] - Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for July reached its highest level since July 2022 at 49.8, with service PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.2 [12] - A trade agreement was reached between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on certain goods and increasing US rice imports [12][13] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.22% from 2.34% in the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [15] - Germany's WAI index also decreased to -0.35% from -0.30% [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate marginally decreased to 5.1% from 5.2% [17] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.74%, down from 6.75% the previous week, leading to a 0.8% increase in mortgage applications [20] Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 217,000 from 221,000 the previous week, while continuing claims rose to 1.955 million from 1.951 million [25] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.25, down 1.3% week-on-week [26] - US gasoline prices remained stable at $3.02 per gallon [26] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have loosened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.644 from 0.549 [30] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with the 3-month basis swap for the yen against the dollar rising to -22.3589 basis points [34] Group 7: Bond Yield Spreads - The 10-year bond yield spreads between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan, have narrowed [36]

Core Viewpoint - The economic landscape in China is showing signs of expansion, with manufacturing PMI improving, while corporate profitability remains under pressure [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.4, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with April's level [1] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a notable recovery, which is significantly higher than the decline observed in the services sector [1] Group 2: Services Sector - The Caixin China Services PMI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.6, marking the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2024 [1] Group 3: Composite PMI - The Caixin China Composite PMI rose by 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 in June, indicating a return to the expansion zone [1] Group 4: Economic Outlook - There is a resurgence in supply and demand, but employment continues to decline, and while corporate costs remain stable, sales prices are on a downward trend [1] - Business confidence is waning, and there are concerns about increased economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, highlighting the importance of the implementation of previous incremental policies and the potential for policy intensification [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices such as the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all experiencing a rebound in June, indicating a positive trend in economic activity [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, continuing a two-month upward trend despite remaining below the critical 50% threshold [3]. - The production index for enterprises was at 51%, indicating stable expansion, while the new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The easing of external disturbances due to a temporary thaw in US-China trade relations has allowed the manufacturing sector to stabilize, with market demand showing signs of recovery [5][6]. Construction Sector - The construction industry business activity index reached 52.8% in June, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rise in investment-related construction activities [7]. - The rapid progress in infrastructure project construction is highlighted by the ongoing implementation of special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds, which are expected to stimulate further demand for infrastructure [9]. Financial Sector - The financial industry business activity index and new orders index both increased to over 60%, reflecting heightened supply and demand activities as the quarter ends, with financial support for the real economy continuing to strengthen [10]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5% in June, showing a slight increase, although sectors related to consumer travel experienced a decline in activity [11]. - Despite some short-term pullbacks, there is optimism regarding the upcoming summer consumption peak, with financial policies aimed at supporting service sectors expected to provide new momentum for growth [13].

Group 1: Economic Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May[1] - The Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaged 51.1 in June, up from 50.9 in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 7.3% in the week of June 22, with a three-week average of 3.2% compared to 4.93% in May[1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Subway ridership in 27 cities averaged 77.42 million daily, up 0.5% year-on-year, while domestic flight numbers were 12,700, up 0.7% year-on-year[2] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 16% year-on-year as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May[2] Group 3: Financial Indicators - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8%[3] - The DR001 rate was 1.3683%, DR007 was 1.6968%, and R007 was 1.9201% as of June 27, with changes of -0.59bps, +20.27bps, and +32.91bps respectively[3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff war has negatively impacted economic sentiment, leading to a decline in corporate expectations to historical lows [1] Economic Indicators - In April, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded 50.4, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest level in three months [1] - The Caixin China Services PMI also fell by 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2024 [1] - The overall Caixin China Composite PMI decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 51.1 in the same month [1]