Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices in 2024, with an increase of over 61% by October 17, 2025, marking it as one of the largest annual gains since 2000 [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has been recognized as a major investment asset, with its price potentially reaching $5,000 to $10,000 according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [4]. - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of gold as a stable form of currency rather than just a metal, arguing that it serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [9][12]. - Dalio suggests that gold should constitute about 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio for optimal risk-return balance, especially during times of economic uncertainty [36][35]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Assets - Unlike other metals such as silver and platinum, gold is viewed as a unique asset due to its lack of credit risk and its role as a universal medium of exchange [17][18]. - Dalio argues that while AI stocks may have high growth potential, their long-term value is uncertain, and they are subject to market volatility, unlike gold which provides a more stable investment [29][30]. - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity, but they are still smaller in scale compared to physical gold and central bank reserves, thus not being the primary driver of gold price increases [38][39]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is increasingly being viewed as a "risk-free asset," replacing U.S. Treasury bonds in many institutional portfolios, particularly among central banks [40][41]. - The historical performance of gold demonstrates its resilience as a store of value, especially during periods of economic crisis when fiat currencies may depreciate [45][46]. - Dalio notes that the intrinsic value of gold is not dependent on any repayment promise, making it a reliable asset across different economic conditions [45][46].

本文来自：聪明投资者 知道今年依然是黄金的大年，但没想到是如此的巨大年。 毕竟去年高盛喊出黄金要上3000点时，市场讪笑声还是很多的。 去年的金价（COMEX黄金）是从2000点起步，2024年年内涨超27%，已经是2000年以来黄金涨幅第三 大的年份，其他两个年份分别是2010年和2007年。 万万没想到的是，截至2025年10月17日，黄金年内已经涨超61%。是的，就是那个浓眉大眼，朴实无华 的"避险资产"，涨出了AI的味道。 就连一贯理性的摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙，在前几日的财富论坛上，面对记者问"黄金，高估还是低 估"这个问题时，也老老实实回答说， "我不太确定。我不是黄金的买家，而持有黄金的成本大约是4%。在当前的环境下，它的价格完全可能 涨到5000美元甚至1万美元。这是我人生中少有的时刻之一——我会说，投资组合里有点黄金，其实算 是'半理性'的选择。" 说到配置黄金，瑞·达利欧的观点是值得看的。 尤其是中国新年后的这篇，《达利欧携新书《国家如何破产》最新对话，谈及DeepSeek以及黄金、 AI、美国债务危机等》，非常详细深入地论述了黄金投资逻辑，观点也很鲜明。 嗯，推荐了很多人看，也坚定了黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2024 is a significant year for gold, with prices rising dramatically, and suggests that gold is increasingly viewed as a crucial asset in investment portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have surged over 61% as of October 17, 2025, marking one of the largest annual increases since 2000 [3]. - The price of gold is projected to potentially reach $5,000 to $10,000, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among market leaders [5]. Group 2: Investment Perspectives - Ray Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a form of currency rather than just a metal, highlighting its historical role as a stable monetary asset [10][11]. - Dalio believes that gold serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation, making it a fundamental investment choice [13][14]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Assets - Gold is preferred over other metals like silver and platinum due to its unique position as a widely accepted form of "non-debt" currency, which carries no credit risk [16][17]. - Unlike bonds, which are subject to government credit risk, gold is seen as a true "risk-free asset" in many institutional portfolios [36][37]. Group 4: Strategic Asset Allocation - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio should be in gold to optimize risk and return [30][31]. - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, especially in light of potential economic downturns [24][28]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity and accessibility, but they are not the primary driver of gold price increases [35]. - Institutional investors are increasingly reallocating assets from U.S. Treasuries to gold, reflecting a shift in perception of risk and value [36][38].

央行购买黄金的动向并非中国独有。国际调查机构"世界黄金协会（WGC）"的数据显示，截 至2024年，各国央行的年度合计购买量已连续三年超过1000吨。2025年1~3月继续刷新最 高纪录，买入规模相较于过去五年的季度平均值高出24%。 波兰中央银行提出了黄金占外汇储备2成的数值目标，并在2025年1~3月突破了这一目标。由 于波兰位于西方与俄罗斯之间、地缘政治学紧张的区域，自俄乌冲突以来，波兰对"战时买黄 金"的偏好有所增加。 作为对俄罗斯进攻乌克兰的制裁，美国冻结俄罗斯的美元资产，这也使新兴国家警惕依赖美 元的风险。 央行的买入对金价构成支撑，有观点预测，下半年黄金现货价格基本在每盎司3100~3500美 元。如果贸易摩擦加剧，全球经济前景的不确定性增加，金价则有可能攀升至3900美元…… 新兴国家的中央银行正在不断增持被视为安全资产的黄金。当前，对美元的信任发生动摇， 俄乌冲突等地缘政治风险也没有缓解的迹象。中国减持美国国债，黄金在其外汇储备中的占 比三年内增加到了两倍。波兰也在积极买入，希望增加黄金储备。 中国人民银行（央行）6月7日公布的资产负债表显示，该行5月购买了约1.9吨黄金。连续7 个月实现黄 ...

央行的买入对金价构成支撑，有观点预测，下半年黄金现货价格基本在每盎司3100~3500美 元。如果贸易摩擦加剧，全球经济前景的不确定性增加，金价则有可能攀升至3900美元…… 新兴国家的中央银行正在不断增持被视为安全资产的黄金。当前，对美元的信任发生动摇， 俄乌冲突等地缘政治风险也没有缓解的迹象。中国减持美国国债，黄金在其外汇储备中的占 比三年内增加到了两倍。波兰也在积极买入，希望增加黄金储备。 中国人民银行（央行）6月7日公布的资产负债表显示，该行5月购买了约1.9吨黄金。连续7 个月实现黄金净买入。中国央行的黄金储备量达到约2296吨，是日本银行（央行）的2.7 倍。 中国正在降低对美国的依赖度，通过增持黄金来推进持有资产的分散化。美国财政部5月16日 公布的截至3月底的各国美债持有额显示，中国的持有额比上月减少189亿美元，降至7653亿 美元。这一数字低于英国，排名降至第三位。 另一方面，黄金在中国外汇储备中的占比提升至6.7%，在过去三年里膨胀到了约两倍。 Robin Tsui认为，"以新兴国家为中心，未来中长期内将继续增持黄金，目标是达到2成"。尤 其是中国（6.7%）和印度（13.4%）的央行还 ...