来源：新浪财富汇 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧对比特币的避险价值持辩证态度——既承认其技术突破与对抗法币贬值的潜 力，又警示其波动性、政策风险及被替代的可能性，最终主张在多元化投资组合中给予其有限配置。 一、基本立场：肯定创新价值但警惕内在缺陷 达利欧将比特币视为"了不起的发明"，认为其通过编程系统创造出新型货币，颠覆传统信用货币体系， 并让早期参与者获得巨额财富。他特别强调比特币具备三大避险属性： 1. 供应有限性：固定总量机制契合全球对稀缺财富储存资产的需求，尤其在高债务与货币超发背景下； 2. 去中心化优势：作为可私人持有、跨境流动的资产，比房地产更抗"没收风险"，政府难以轻易征税或 冻结； 3. 流动性价值：相比实物黄金，比特币更易快速交易变现，适应危机中的现金需求。 然而，他同时指出比特币的核心短板： - 技术替代风险：比特币协议固定难以进化，未来可能出现更优的加密货币替代品； - 历史验证：跨越千年的终极财富载体，在80%法币消失的背景下保持购买力； - 央行背书：作为全球第三大储备资产，其价值受主权机构认可； - 抗监管特性：实物黄金可匿名持有，比比特币更规避政府追踪。 他援引实证数据指出：当市场剧 ...

黄金白银的剧烈震荡还在继续，各大投行关于金银价格的中期走势预判也出现了重大分歧。 2月3日，国际现货黄金、白银价格出现强劲反弹，银价反弹超过10%，金价反弹超过5%。 巴克莱银行在最新发布的一份研究报告中，坚定表达了看多黄金中长期趋势的看法。巴克莱判断，当前 黄金市场的回调并非牛市终结的信号，而是一场必要的"中场休息"——短期持仓重置后，支撑金价高位 运行的结构性力量仍将持续发酵。 据巴克莱测算，黄金当前的公允价值约为4000美元/盎司，尽管存在20%的溢价，但这一溢价具备持久 性，与泡沫有着本质区别。 01 短期回调：技术面修正与政策噪音 巴克莱认为，此次金价回调的直接诱因，是市场短期技术面的过度透支与政策预期的边际变化。 从交易层面看，黄金已处于"过热"状态：期权、相对强弱指数等关键技术指标均显示其被过度交易，投 机性多头持仓拥挤度创下近期新高，而美元空头头寸也已趋近饱和。 在连续暴涨后，部分获利资金选择落袋为安，推动金价进行技术性修正，这一过程本质上是市场情绪 从"非理性繁荣"向理性回归的必然结果。 政策面的短期扰动进一步放大了波动。凯文.沃尔什被提名美联储主席的消息，成为市场情绪转向的催 化剂。 作为 ...

Core Insights - RadexMarkets observes a significant asset structure transformation among central banks and sovereign wealth funds, shifting from traditional government bonds to gold assets in the current global macroeconomic context [1][3] - Ray Dalio highlights that the global financial system is at a sensitive moment of risk accumulation, with historical cycles indicating that rising debt levels can lead to liquidity crises [1][4] Debt Cycle Dynamics - Dalio states that when debt levels are low relative to income, moderate borrowing does not trigger systemic crises; however, as total debt and interest payments rise, it crowds out social spending, leading to liquidity issues [4] - RadexMarkets believes that sovereign credit expansion provides short-term relief but sets the stage for long-term currency devaluation [4] Market Supply and Demand Imbalance - The imbalance in market supply and demand is critical, as high levels of dollar-denominated debt and increasing supply diminish buyer confidence in future returns [2][4] - This new risk encourages sovereign investors to abandon traditional fiat currencies in favor of hard currencies, with gold's rising status being a key finding in RadexMarkets' research [2][4] Geopolitical Risks - Increasing geopolitical conflicts add complexity to asset safety, with risks associated with holding dollar-denominated debt stemming from supply-demand imbalances and potential capital restrictions or sanctions [5] - Dalio emphasizes that gold's status as a "neutral asset" becomes apparent when investors recognize the risks of asset freezing or devaluation [5] Historical Context and Gold's Role - Since 1971, central banks have typically responded to debt crises by creating substantial amounts of money and credit, resulting in soaring inflation and rising gold prices [5] - Dalio asserts that gold has demonstrated exceptional purchasing power maintenance over the long term, making it the best alternative currency in response to "paper debt crises" [5] Strategic Asset Allocation - RadexMarkets advises ordinary investors to view gold not merely as a short-term speculative tool but as a strategic asset allocation of 5% to 15% [5][6] - In light of dual challenges from currency system fluctuations and geopolitical reshaping, the defensive value of gold is being redefined in the market [6] - Investors are encouraged to shift their perspective from "tactical play" to "strategic reserve," especially during heightened debt default risks or intense currency competition, with gold serving as a solid safe haven for personal wealth [6]

1月15日，全球货币政策的转向正在为数字资产开启新的溢价空间。FPG财盛国际表示，尽管比特币在 去年的表现中相对滞后于黄金与纳斯达克指数，但随着 2026 年美元流动性进入扩张周期，这一资产类 别的上涨动能正被重新激活。FPG财盛国际认为，比特币作为一种"货币技术"属性极强的资产，其价格 表现与全球流动性的宽裕程度有着高度的正相关性，而当前的宏观环境正为这种相关性的爆发提供温 床。 1月15日，全球货币政策的转向正在为数字资产开启新的溢价空间。FPG财盛国际表示，尽管比特币在 去年的表现中相对滞后于黄金与纳斯达克指数，但随着 2026 年美元流动性进入扩张周期，这一资产类 别的上涨动能正被重新激活。FPG财盛国际认为，比特币作为一种"货币技术"属性极强的资产，其价格 表现与全球流动性的宽裕程度有着高度的正相关性，而当前的宏观环境正为这种相关性的爆发提供温 床。 从历史表现的事实数据表示，2025 年比特币表现相对疲软，跌幅约为 14.40%，与此同时，黄金在避险 情绪推动下录得 44.40% 的惊人涨幅，科技板块也以 24.6% 的回报率领先标普 500 指数。FPG财盛国际 分析认为，去年的波动主因在于美元 ...

Galaxy reporting its best quarter in its history. The company generating $29 billion in revenue driven by a 140% increase in trading volume. Joining us right now in an exclusive interview is Galaxy founder and CEO Mike Novograts.Good morning to you. Uh congratulations uh on the earnings. I know you've been you've been >> working at this for quite some time and it's quite something uh to behold but it's all it's all happening.It's all happening. >> Thank you. But yeah, it was a great quarter and uh it felt l ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices in 2024, with an increase of over 61% by October 17, 2025, marking it as one of the largest annual gains since 2000 [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has been recognized as a major investment asset, with its price potentially reaching $5,000 to $10,000 according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [4]. - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of gold as a stable form of currency rather than just a metal, arguing that it serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [9][12]. - Dalio suggests that gold should constitute about 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio for optimal risk-return balance, especially during times of economic uncertainty [36][35]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Assets - Unlike other metals such as silver and platinum, gold is viewed as a unique asset due to its lack of credit risk and its role as a universal medium of exchange [17][18]. - Dalio argues that while AI stocks may have high growth potential, their long-term value is uncertain, and they are subject to market volatility, unlike gold which provides a more stable investment [29][30]. - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity, but they are still smaller in scale compared to physical gold and central bank reserves, thus not being the primary driver of gold price increases [38][39]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is increasingly being viewed as a "risk-free asset," replacing U.S. Treasury bonds in many institutional portfolios, particularly among central banks [40][41]. - The historical performance of gold demonstrates its resilience as a store of value, especially during periods of economic crisis when fiat currencies may depreciate [45][46]. - Dalio notes that the intrinsic value of gold is not dependent on any repayment promise, making it a reliable asset across different economic conditions [45][46].