报告直指其激进扩张背后的三大信用风险：一是350亿美元的巨额资本支出与模糊的融资战略及"不友好"的信贷历史形成冲突；二是对 OpenAI的3000亿大单构成客户集中度风险，且其云业务仅14%的"薄利"难以支撑高杠杆；三是AI巨头间可能存在的"资本内循环"或放大需 求泡沫。 一笔高达380亿美元的巨额债务融资，正准备涌入市场，为甲骨文的数据中心项目提供弹药。 这笔由摩根大通与三菱日联金融集团牵头的融资， 不仅是迄今为止AI基础设施领域规模最大的融资交易，更标志着这场竞赛已从科技巨头 的内部现金游戏，正式转向一场由杠杆驱动的资本豪赌。 在投行部门紧锣密鼓地为这笔交易安排承销时， 摩根大通的债券研究团队，却发布了一份"踩刹车"式的研究报告，将甲骨文的信用评级 从"增持"下调至"中性"。 报告直指其激进扩张背后三大信用风险： 一是350亿美元的巨额资本支出与模糊的融资战略及"不友好"的信贷历史形成冲突 甲骨文的AI雄心，为何遭遇信贷市场的冷水？ 报告开篇，摩根大通债券团队直接了当地写道： " 我们下调甲骨文评级，是考虑到公司巨大的资本需求和其融资战略的能见度有限。 " 这家以高利润数据库软件闻名的科技巨头，正将自己的 ...

Core Insights - A massive debt financing of $38 billion is set to enter the market to support Oracle's data center projects, marking the largest financing deal in the AI infrastructure sector to date [1] - JPMorgan's bond research team downgraded Oracle's credit rating from "overweight" to "neutral," citing significant capital needs and limited visibility into its financing strategy [1][2] - Oracle's aggressive expansion into AI cloud infrastructure is leading to explosive growth in capital expenditures, with FY26 capital expenditure guidance raised to an astonishing $35 billion [1][4] Financial Discipline and Credit History - Oracle has a history of being one of the least credit-friendly issuers in the investment-grade tech, media, and telecom sectors, often financing large stock buybacks and aggressive acquisitions, which has led to rising leverage levels [2] - The absence of a dedicated CFO for a decade prior to recent management changes highlights loose financial governance within the company [2] - The bond market requires tangible cash flows to cover substantial principal and interest payments, contrasting with the stock market's more optimistic outlook on future contracts [2][4] Customer Concentration Risk - A significant $300 billion five-year AI computing contract with OpenAI has raised concerns about customer concentration risk, as Oracle's growth and asset utilization are heavily tied to a single client [3] - OpenAI's unclear business model and profitability path further exacerbate this risk, especially given Oracle's thin profit margins in its cloud business [3][4] Profitability Concerns - Oracle's cloud infrastructure business has reported razor-thin gross margins, with a mere 14% gross margin on $900 million in revenue from NVIDIA-powered server rentals [4] - The management's claims of achieving 30-40% gross margins on large AI infrastructure projects are called into question due to discrepancies in reported data and rising costs [4] Systemic Risks in AI Infrastructure - The shift from "cash is king" to a "debt competition" in the AI infrastructure sector has introduced systemic risks, particularly through circular counterparties that create a closed ecosystem of capital flow among a few major players [5][8] - This interdependence among companies may artificially inflate demand and obscure the true economic needs, potentially leading to a bubble [8] - Credit rating agencies have expressed concerns, with S&P and Moody's adjusting Oracle's rating outlook to "negative," indicating that debt growth may outpace EBITDA growth [8]