Carillon Tower Advisers, an investment management company, released its “Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund” third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The S&P 500 Index continued its rally in the third quarter, ending the year-to-date returns at 13.7%. During this period, growth and momentum were key contributors to the market's performance. A significant portion of the market is currently tied to the single catalyst of AI deployment, which means that any weaknesses i ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the nuclear power sector, particularly focusing on small modular reactors (SMRs) as a key energy solution for AI data centers, driven by recent administrative actions from the Trump administration [5][48][50]. Core Insights - The collaboration between OpenAI, Oracle, and Vantage Data Centers to build the "Lighthouse" Stargate data center cluster in Wisconsin is a significant development, contributing to the expansion of IT capacity in the U.S. [1][12]. - The U.S. grid reliability is under threat, with warnings from NERC about a potential "five-alarm fire" risk, indicating urgent infrastructure needs [1][26]. - The demand for gas turbines is expected to grow, driven by the re-industrialization and development of AI data centers, despite a stable electricity demand in the U.S. [18][22]. - The report highlights a robust growth in the transformer export market, particularly from China and South Korea, indicating a strong demand for electrical equipment [38][39]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - North America's data center vacancy rates have reached a historic low of 1.6%, reflecting strong demand [8]. - The average price for 250 to 500 kW cabinets has increased by 2.5%, while those over 10 MW have surged by 19% due to limited power supply and rising construction costs [8]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index increased by 3.43% year-on-year as of August 2025, indicating a stable competitive landscape [15]. - The U.S. electrical transformer production price index remained stable at 440.55, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [29]. Global Energy Industry - The average spot price of electricity in major U.S. regions rose by 21.32% week-on-week, with a significant increase in clean energy installations [3]. - The collaboration between Oklo and Newcleo to develop advanced fuel manufacturing infrastructure in the U.S. is a notable advancement in the nuclear sector [3]. Global New Materials - The global uranium spot price increased by 10% month-on-month, reflecting a tightening supply [4]. - The price index for steel pipes and stainless steel rose by 0.58% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in the materials market [4]. Key Company Insights and Commentary - GE Vernova is expanding its capabilities in the nuclear sector, with a focus on high-voltage equipment and small modular reactors [43]. - Siemens Energy is actively investing in expanding its transformer manufacturing capacity in Germany, indicating strong order reserves [43]. - ABB has signed significant contracts for electrification projects, showcasing its commitment to energy management solutions [41].

报告直指其激进扩张背后的三大信用风险：一是350亿美元的巨额资本支出与模糊的融资战略及"不友好"的信贷历史形成冲突；二是对 OpenAI的3000亿大单构成客户集中度风险，且其云业务仅14%的"薄利"难以支撑高杠杆；三是AI巨头间可能存在的"资本内循环"或放大需 求泡沫。 一笔高达380亿美元的巨额债务融资，正准备涌入市场，为甲骨文的数据中心项目提供弹药。 这笔由摩根大通与三菱日联金融集团牵头的融资， 不仅是迄今为止AI基础设施领域规模最大的融资交易，更标志着这场竞赛已从科技巨头 的内部现金游戏，正式转向一场由杠杆驱动的资本豪赌。 在投行部门紧锣密鼓地为这笔交易安排承销时， 摩根大通的债券研究团队，却发布了一份"踩刹车"式的研究报告，将甲骨文的信用评级 从"增持"下调至"中性"。 报告直指其激进扩张背后三大信用风险： 一是350亿美元的巨额资本支出与模糊的融资战略及"不友好"的信贷历史形成冲突 甲骨文的AI雄心，为何遭遇信贷市场的冷水？ 报告开篇，摩根大通债券团队直接了当地写道： " 我们下调甲骨文评级，是考虑到公司巨大的资本需求和其融资战略的能见度有限。 " 这家以高利润数据库软件闻名的科技巨头，正将自己的 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.23%, the Nasdaq down by 0.05%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.02% [1] - Chinese concept stocks experienced varied movements, with Kaixin Auto rising over 5% and Futu Holdings up over 3%, while Kingsoft Cloud fell over 4% [1] Global Asset Highlights - Gold has reached a significant milestone, surpassing a total market value of $30 trillion, making it the first global asset to achieve this level [2] Federal Reserve Insights - There is increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others prefer a more cautious 25 basis point approach [3] Government Funding Issues - The U.S. Senate has failed to advance a temporary funding bill for the tenth time, contributing to ongoing government shutdown concerns [4] AI Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs asserts that the current AI investment wave is not a bubble, indicating that the investment scale is still small compared to potential economic returns [5] Company News: Apple - Apple is reportedly planning to launch its first Mac computer with a touchscreen and M6 chip, breaking from its long-standing design principles [5] Company News: Oracle - Oracle has secured $65 billion in new cloud infrastructure contracts within a month, addressing concerns about revenue sustainability [6] Banking Sector Concerns - U.S. regional banks are facing significant challenges, with Zions Bancorp reporting a $50 million loss due to loan fraud incidents, raising concerns about credit quality [7][8]

【原油】纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨59美分，收于每桶59.49美元，涨幅为 1.0%；12月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨59美分，收于每桶63.32美元，涨幅为0.94%。 【加密货币】比特币上涨0.71%，报115909美元；以太坊涨超2.6%，报4270.14美元。 【美元指数】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.3%，在汇市尾市收于99.274。截至纽约汇 市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1568美元，低于前一交易日的1.1609美元；1英镑兑换1.3334美元，低于前一交易 日的1.3346美元。1美元兑换152.29日元，高于前一交易日的151.72日元；1美元兑换0.8041瑞士法郎，高 于前一交易日的0.8013瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4037加元，高于前一交易日的1.4000加元；1美元兑换 9.5055瑞典克朗，低于前一交易日的9.5216瑞典克朗。 【贵金属】现货黄金突破4111美元，日内涨超2%；现货白银突破52美元。 【宏观消息】 科技股的迅猛上涨推动标普500指数再创新高，但同时也推高了估值，引发股市泡沫隐忧。Gabelli基金 经理John Belton表示： ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the nuclear power sector, particularly focusing on small modular reactors (SMRs) as a key energy solution for AI data centers in the future [4][46]. Core Insights - The Canadian data center market is projected to experience exponential growth, with planned projects nearing 9GW [9]. - The demand for AI computing power is surging, benefiting cloud infrastructure service providers like Oracle, which reported a 54% year-on-year increase in cloud infrastructure revenue [8]. - The U.S. energy market is witnessing significant changes, including the approval of policies to accelerate interconnection for dispatchable generation [1]. Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - North America's data center vacancy rates have reached a historic low of 1.6%, indicating strong demand [7]. - The average price for 250 to 500 kW cabinets has increased by 2.5%, while those over 10 MW have seen a 19% rise due to high demand and limited power supply [7]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index in the U.S. increased by 3.43% year-on-year as of August 2025, reflecting a stable competitive landscape [13]. - The production price index for electric and special transformers in the U.S. was stable at 440.55, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [24]. Global Energy Industry - The U.S. is experiencing fluctuations in wholesale electricity prices, with a notable decrease of 2.54% in average spot prices [3]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures price was reported at $2.81 per million British thermal units, down 7.9% week-on-week [3]. Global New Materials - The spot price for uranium was $75.13 per pound in August 2025, reflecting a 6% increase month-on-month [3]. - The price index for steel pipes and stainless steel increased by 0.58% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 7.85% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the importance of nuclear power in the energy mix for AI operations, recommending companies like Entergy, Talen Energy, and Constellation Energy for investment [4]. - It suggests monitoring companies involved in energy equipment, such as Oklo and NuScale Power, as they are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear energy solutions [4].

Core Insights - Canalys has released the "2025 China Cloud Channel Leadership Matrix," recognizing Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, and AWS as the "Champions" for their outstanding performance in channel management, market performance, and ecosystem development [1][7]. Evaluation Criteria - The matrix evaluates seven major cloud service providers in mainland China with annual cloud service revenues exceeding $1 billion, focusing on vision and strategy, channel planning and execution, partner feedback, and AI ecosystem competitiveness [3]. - The inclusion of AI ecosystem competitiveness in the evaluation highlights the rapid transformation of the channel ecosystem driven by AI, which raises the bar for partner capability building and value delivery [3]. Champion Characteristics - Champions have demonstrated exceptional performance in developing the industry channel ecosystem and have made significant progress in corporate strategy over the past 12 months, leading to recognition from both Canalys analysts and channel partners [3]. - To become a leader in the ecosystem, companies must exhibit three key capabilities: providing precise and continuous partner empowerment, lowering entry barriers, and helping partners accumulate practical experience [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The rapid evolution of AI has propelled the Chinese cloud service market into a new phase, reshaping the role of partners from mere executors of market expansion and resource delivery to becoming critical bridges between vendors and customers [3]. - Leading vendors are actively building AI ecosystems and launching various empowerment initiatives, including targeted incentives, joint solutions, and professional training, to help partners excel in the new competitive landscape [3]. Other Vendor Categories - Vendors are categorized into different groups based on their channel strategy and leadership: - Challengers (Contenders) possess advantages in industry leadership and channel strategy - Expanders (Scalers) show strong development momentum but have limited overall leadership - Foundations (Foundation) lag in partner support and channel planning [5]. Long-term Growth Potential - The long-term growth potential of the ecosystem depends on several key factors, including the ability of vendors to conduct sustained and precise empowerment, partners' willingness to invest in sustainable capability building, and the establishment of stable, trust-based cooperative relationships [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the AI infrastructure sector, particularly those with a first-mover advantage in GPU cards, such as Oracle, Coreweave, Nebius, AppliedGigital, and Iris Energy [3]. Core Insights - The global AI infrastructure investment is accelerating, with significant contracts being signed, such as Nebius securing a deal with Microsoft worth nearly $20 billion, which could reach up to $19.4 billion by 2031 [2]. - Major companies like Oracle and Meta are expanding their cloud businesses, with Oracle projecting a revenue growth of 14% to 16% year-over-year for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, driven by strong cloud performance [1][2]. - The report highlights that the focus of AI infrastructure investment is shifting from cloud vendor spending to AIDC (AI Data Center) cloud computing centers, indicating a broader market trend [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Oracle's first fiscal quarter cloud infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion, a 55% year-over-year increase, with a remaining performance obligation of $455 billion, up 359% year-over-year [1]. - Meta's projected spending for 2025 is between $66 billion and $72 billion, primarily for expanding generative AI infrastructure [2]. Market Trends - Global cloud infrastructure service spending is expected to reach $95.3 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth [2]. - Microsoft announced an annual AI capital expenditure of $120 billion for the current year, significantly up from $88 billion the previous year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the AIDC chain, such as Runze Technology and Runjian Co., as well as optical module companies like Dekoli and Shijia Photon [3].

Meta方面拒绝对此事置评，甲骨文则未立即回应置评请求。 甲骨文(ORCL.US)正与Meta(META.US)就一项价值约200亿美元的云计算合作展开磋商。这一动态进一 步表明，甲骨文已成为业内重要的基础设施服务提供商。 早在今年8月就有报道称，甲骨文正与Meta洽谈增加云服务资源供应的相关事宜。 据知情人士透露，这项多年期协议中，甲骨文将为这家社交媒体巨头提供用于人工智能(AI)模型训练与 部署的计算能力。知情人士表示，最终协议敲定前，双方承诺的总金额可能会进一步增加，其他合作条 款也仍有调整空间。 若协议达成，将成为甲骨文云基础设施业务取得的又一重要胜利。上周，甲骨文公布其订单量大幅增 长，这一业绩推动公司股价攀升至历史新高。此前，甲骨文已披露与Meta及其他AI模型训练企业的云 服务合作，其中就包括马斯克旗下的xAI公司。 周五美股，甲骨文股价收于308.66美元，单日涨幅达4.1%。受云业务亮眼表现的推动，该公司股价今年 以来已累计上涨85%。 尽管甲骨文以数据库软件闻名，但如今它正崛起为AI算力领域的关键供应商，与亚马逊(AMZN.US)、 微软(MSFT.US)及谷歌(GOOGL.US)等云服务 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a liquidity-driven "bull market," with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing strong performance, particularly in small-cap stocks and growth styles [1][20][33] - The report emphasizes that the current market is in a "slow bull" phase transitioning to a "fast bull," but warns against the potential for an unsustainable "crazy bull" market [1][33] - The report highlights the importance of the "three bulls" (liquidity bull, fundamental bull, and new/old momentum transition bull) for the market's future performance [1][33] Group 2 - The report notes that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, which is seen as a preventive measure rather than a response to recession [2][3] - It is anticipated that the Fed's rate cut will benefit non-US assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, and that there are no significant domestic stimulus policies expected to follow the rate cut [2][3] - The report discusses the potential impact of political changes within the Fed, which could affect monetary policy decisions and market dynamics [3] Group 3 - The report suggests that the recent inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks is significant, with nearly 1 trillion yuan accumulated this year, primarily directed towards internet and automotive sectors [5][24][34] - It highlights that the performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to improve, as it has lagged behind the ChiNext Index, indicating a potential for catch-up [4][34] - The report also mentions that the earnings forecasts for the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index have been revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [5][52][54] Group 4 - The report identifies a trend of increasing foreign investment in Chinese assets, with a notable shift from "not paying attention" to "increasing allocation" [5][47][49] - It emphasizes that the current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is lower compared to the ChiNext Index, suggesting a potential for relative outperformance [39][45] - The report points out that the liquidity tightening in Hong Kong has had a significant impact on the market, but the anticipated Fed rate cuts may alleviate some of these pressures [46][35]