Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal market has shown a comprehensive strengthening trend since 2026, with the non-ferrous metal index rising by 24.31%, significantly outperforming the broader market. Precious metals (silver, gold) and minor metals (tungsten, tin) have performed particularly well, with price increases notably higher than industrial metals (lead, aluminum) [2][6]. Market Overview - The report titled "Comprehensive Analysis of the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry" systematically reviews the current non-ferrous metal market from multiple dimensions, including macro strategic environment, industry chain dynamics, competitive landscape, and industry trends, providing a reference for market decision-makers [2]. Price and Production Changes - Certain metals have entered an upward price channel, indicating a structural increase rather than a comprehensive recovery. The industry is transitioning from a low point to recovery, with a clear differentiation between strong and weak products [6][10]. - Global major metal varieties face significant supply constraints due to declining resource grades, insufficient capital expenditure, and geopolitical disturbances. Export restrictions from resource-rich countries are tightening, impacting the industry's international trade dynamics [10]. Demand Resilience - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and AI computing centers are becoming core drivers of demand. For instance, China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 16.49 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, boosting demand for copper, aluminum, and rare earths [11][22]. Market Price Support - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for China's non-ferrous metal manufacturing is expected to rise to 117.200 in 2025, up from 113.200 in 2024, indicating robust industry demand [12]. Policy Environment - The policy environment is shifting from "cyclical adjustment" to "strategic resource management," accelerating industry upgrades. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans for the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve an average annual growth of around 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [13][16]. Industry Integration and Technological Support - Policies encourage mergers and acquisitions among large smelting enterprises and support the technological research and industrial application of high-end new materials like magnesium alloys and tungsten [14]. Resource Recycling - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is pushing for greener production of high-energy-consuming metals. By the end of 2025, 30% of the electrolytic aluminum industry's capacity is expected to meet benchmark energy efficiency levels [15]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the industrial metals sector is stable, with leading companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Company maintaining strong positions through global resource layouts and price elasticity [43][44]. - In the energy metals sector, companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are leading with a dual drive of resources and technology, while Huayou Cobalt leads in the nickel sector with a collaborative model [47][48]. Long-term Trends - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain a structurally tight balance in supply and demand, with resource-constrained metals remaining tight in the long term. However, the supply-demand gap will exhibit differentiation across varieties and phases, indicating significant structural opportunities rather than systemic trends [54][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 5.76% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index, ranking 22nd among 31 first-level industries [2][13] - Precious metals prices have shown volatility, with gold and silver prices increasing slightly, while industrial metals and new materials have seen more significant declines [2][3] - A significant discovery of a large gold deposit in China was reported, marking the largest single gold mine found since the establishment of the People's Republic of China [4][62] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 5.76% from November 10 to November 21, 2025, with declines across various segments including energy metals (-2.70%), industrial metals (-6.85%), new materials (-10.20%), precious metals (-0.65%), and minor metals (-6.43%) [2][13] Precious Metals - As of November 21, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $4,062.80 per ounce, up 1.37% over two weeks, and up 52.10% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $49.66 per ounce, up 2.98% over two weeks, and up 65.59% year-to-date [3][21] - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, impacting prices [21] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $10,685.50 per ton, down 0.32% over two weeks, but up 23.03% year-to-date. Domestic copper prices averaged 85,710 yuan per ton, down 0.26% over two weeks, and up 16.93% year-to-date [28] - The copper market is supported by low global inventories, despite ongoing geopolitical risks [28] Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to 329,000 yuan per ton, up 5.11% over two weeks, and up 130.07% year-to-date. Antimony ingot prices increased to 172,500 yuan per ton, up 15.38% over two weeks, and up 22.99% year-to-date [35][36] - The tungsten market remains strong due to tight supply and high demand in various sectors [36] Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was reported at 206.73, down 1.21% over two weeks, but up 26.23% year-to-date. Prices for light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased slightly, while heavy rare earths saw more significant declines [46][49] - The rare earth market is experiencing a downturn due to weak demand and pricing pressures [46] Energy Metals - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 396,500 yuan per ton, up 2.99% over two weeks, and up 177.27% year-to-date. Lithium carbonate prices increased to 92,300 yuan per ton, up 14.80% over two weeks, and up 22.90% year-to-date [54][57] - The energy metals sector is benefiting from strong demand, particularly in battery materials [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, suggesting a focus on "resources + growth" investment opportunities following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 11.89% over the past two weeks, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, ranking first among 31 primary industries [2][12]. - Precious metals continue to show strength, with gold prices reaching $4,035.50 per ounce, up 6.48% in two weeks, and year-to-date gains of 51.07% [3][21]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics, particularly the recent export control measures on rare earth elements by the Chinese government, which are expected to influence market conditions [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2025.9.29-2025.10.10) - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 11.89%, with energy metals up 12.75% and industrial metals up 13.34% [12][20]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with gold up 6.48% and silver up 2.48% over the past two weeks [3][21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold due to their strong performance in the precious metals sector [21][24]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices rose to $10,735 per ton, up 6.02% in two weeks, driven by supply disruptions from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [28]. - Companies such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [28]. 4. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have seen a slight decline, while tin prices have increased by 2.72% over the past two weeks [36]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of tungsten and suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Huaxiang Nonferrous Metals [36]. 5. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index decreased by 0.81% recently, influenced by new export control policies from the Chinese government [46]. - Companies such as China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are recommended for investment consideration [46]. 6. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices surged, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 349,500 yuan per ton, up 12.74% in two weeks [52]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in cobalt production due to the strong price performance [52].