■私募新观察 私募最新调研路径曝光 科技与医药仍是"心头好" ◎记者 马嘉悦 私募四季度的布局思路，可在9月调研路径中窥得端倪。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，9月超900家私 募参与A股上市公司调研活动，合计调研近2800次。从行业分布来看，电子、机械设备、医药生物、电 力设备等板块备受青睐，接受私募调研的频次居前。在业内人士看来，随着大量海外资金和居民财富重 新配置，稳增长政策持续发力，中国权益资产的基本面、资金面和趋势上都有支撑，结构性行情有望持 续演绎，尤其是代表中国经济转型方向的科技、医药板块，以及受益于"反内卷"政策的工程机械、化工 行业龙头股，值得重点关注。 9月以来，私募调研保持较高积极性。 私募排排网统计数据显示，9月共有979家私募证券投资基金管理人参与A股公司调研活动，覆盖30个申 万一级行业的529家公司，合计调研频次达2789次。其中，9月共有41家百亿级私募参与A股公司调研， 覆盖27个申万一级行业的189家公司，合计调研频次达318次。 具体来看，创新型生物制药龙头企业——迈威生物备受私募关注，9月获得了88家私募调研，其中不乏 淡水泉、高毅资产、和谐汇一资产等百亿级私募身影。在对迈 ...

最新统计数据显示，9月超900家私募参与到A股上市公司调研活动中，合计调研近2800次。从行业分布 来看，电子、机械设备、医药生物、电力设备等板块备受青睐，接受私募调研的频次居前。 私募四季度的布局思路，可在9月调研路径中窥得端倪。 从个股来看，创新型生物制药龙头企业——迈威生物备受私募关注，9月获得了88家私募扎堆调研，其 中不乏淡水泉、高毅资产、和谐汇一资产等百亿级私募身影。在对迈威生物的调研中，私募对于该公司 的双靶点小核酸药物BD背景、α-syn靶向示踪剂项目的亮点和价值等颇为关注。 北京一位百亿级私募人士在接受上证报记者采访时表示，尽管9月以来市场波动加剧，前期涨幅较大的 创新药、科技等板块出现明显回调，但在美联储降息，国内居民资产再配置，中国经济逐步修复的过程 中，中国资产依然值得深入挖掘。接下来，投资需更关注真成长、真创新，通过深入个股和产业调研， 把握高质量成长企业波动中的买入机会。 丹羿投资也发布观点称，美元走势趋弱将促使全球资金积极寻求更具成长性的投资机会，而A股因估值 合理以及优势产业驱动，大概率会成为国际资金关注的方向，接下来中国优质权益资产无论是资金面和 基本面，都存在支撑，短期震荡 ...

私募四季度的布局思路，可在9月调研路径中窥得端倪。 私募排排网最新统计数据显示，9月超900家私募参与到A股上市公司调研活动中，合计调研近2800次。 从行业分布来看，电子、机械设备、医药生物、电力设备等板块备受青睐，接受私募调研的频次居前。 在业内人士看来，伴随着大量海外资金和居民财富重新配置，稳增长政策持续发力，中国权益资产的基 本面、资金面和趋势上都有支撑，结构性行情有望持续演绎，尤其是代表中国经济转型方向的科技、医 药板块，以及受益于"反内卷"政策的工程机械、化工行业龙头股，值得重点关注。 私募调研步履不停 9月以来，市场震荡加剧，但私募调研依然火热。 煜德投资近日发布观点分析称，回顾过往的巨大行情，政策效应和产业革命共振往往是共同的驱动力。 如今国内政策积极信号不断释放，AI技术革命也日新月异，中国资本市场存在诸多可为的配置机会， 资源价值重估和创新成长两个核心方向值得挖掘。具体来看，受益于"反内卷"政策的煤炭行业、科技创 新领域的优质企业、中国优势制造业出海的机会，是接下来布局的重点。 从个股来看，创新型生物制药龙头企业——迈威生物备受私募关注，9月获得了88家私募扎堆调研，其 中不乏淡水泉、高毅 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced adjustments in September, digesting previous gains while maintaining a generally positive sentiment [1] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are gaining traction, leading to a recovery in residents' risk appetite and a shift in fund allocation from deposits to capital markets [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is increasing, suggesting a continuation of global liquidity easing [1] Investment Opportunities - The market is expected to maintain its current structure, with potential adjustments in previously high-performing sectors [2] - Focus on technology stocks with high earnings visibility and acceptable valuations, particularly in overseas computing sectors [2] - Resource stocks, including gold, copper, and aluminum, present investment opportunities due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar [2] - Dividend stocks and innovative pharmaceuticals that have been stagnant may also offer potential as adjustments appear to be complete [2] Sector Insights - Robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals are viewed positively, with expectations of market fluctuations influenced by Federal Reserve decisions and significant domestic meetings [3] - AI applications, particularly in healthcare, are expected to gain traction as demand remains strong and supply continues to evolve [4] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to return to a more predictable trajectory, with a focus on small to mid-cap innovative pharmaceutical stocks that show fundamental promise [5] - The military industry is expected to see increased orders driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and new demands from the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7] Economic Trends - The cyclical sectors are likely to strengthen, supported by favorable market conditions and expectations of a rate cut in the U.S. [8] - The focus on overseas expansion for Chinese companies remains strong, with careful selection based on valuation and quality [9] - AI computing and other growth sectors are viewed as having solid fundamentals, despite potential short-term volatility [10] - The technology growth sector is expected to continue performing well, driven by liquidity and independent industry logic [11]

Group 1 - The article highlights the expectation of a significant decline in US interest rates within the next year, despite the recent Federal Reserve meeting not announcing a rate cut. This is accompanied by rising international commodity prices, including gold and copper, and increasing rare earth prices in China [1][2] - The current global economic and political landscape is leading to a systematic revaluation of resource commodities, driven by factors such as inflation, debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The US debt is expanding, with the national debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 124%, raising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation reminiscent of the late 1970s [3][4] Group 2 - Strategic resources like copper, gold, and rare earths are facing a tight supply-demand balance and structural shortages, which are expected to enhance their investment value [5] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to weaken the dollar, thereby boosting commodity prices, particularly for gold and cyclical resources like copper and oil [4][6] - The domestic capacity cycle is at a historical low, suggesting a potential rebound, while policies aimed at eliminating inefficient capacity could enhance industry concentration and lead to valuation increases in the resource sector [6] Group 3 - The article discusses the launch of the Guangfa Resource Select Fund (023834), which combines subjective and quantitative strategies to capture investment opportunities in the resource sector. The fund is managed by experienced fund manager Yang Dong, who has a strong track record [7][8] - Yang Dong's management style integrates subjective market analysis with quantitative methods, allowing for a diversified approach to investment strategy [15][18] - The fund aims to leverage the current favorable conditions in the resource market, with a focus on high-quality resource companies, and is available for subscription through various channels [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for metals, copper, and aluminum, suggesting an increase in allocation [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for price increases in lithium due to supply disruptions, particularly from large mines in Jiangxi facing production halts [2][5]. - Industrial metals have rebounded, driven by a weaker dollar and renewed anti-involution sentiment, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.4% and 1.7% respectively [6][24]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their value reassessment amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain developments [5]. Summary by Sections Lithium and Supply Dynamics - Lithium supply is expected to tighten significantly due to potential production halts in Jiangxi, leading to a substantial reduction in the annual supply-demand surplus [2][5]. - The report notes that domestic mining regulations are becoming stricter, which may further impact lithium production [5]. Precious Metals - The report suggests focusing on gold stocks for a potential second wave of market activity this year, recommending an increase in allocation as gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce [4]. - The analysis indicates that gold stocks may experience a quarterly resonance across price, valuation, and style dimensions [4]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report identifies strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten as having significant upside potential due to government policies and market dynamics [5]. - It mentions that the price of rare earths has shown improvement, with Baotou Steel Rare Earth's price for rare earth concentrate rising to 19,100 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [5]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing price fluctuations, with copper and aluminum showing signs of recovery due to macroeconomic factors and expectations of interest rate cuts [6][24]. - The report notes that the overall demand for copper and aluminum is likely to decline in the second half of the year, but potential policy support could stabilize prices [6]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the broader market, with a 5.24% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 2.11% rise [14]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao, are highlighted for their strong performance [6][22].

Company Overview - Company is a global metal mining giant focused on upstream metal resources, operating internationally with headquarters in Melbourne, Australia [1] - The company has undergone two major transformations since its listing in Hong Kong in 1994, including the acquisition of MMG in 2010 and the purchase of the Las Bambas copper mine in 2014, significantly enhancing its resource strength [1] - In 2024, the company completed the acquisition of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana, adding a key copper asset to its portfolio, which now includes five overseas mines (3 copper and 2 zinc) [1] Financial Performance - Copper is the core metal, contributing significantly to revenue, with copper products generating $3.308 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for 73.86% of total revenue [2] - Las Bambas mine alone contributed $2.978 billion in revenue, representing 66.48% of total revenue and $1.594 billion in EBITDA, which is 77.82% of the company's EBITDA [2] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $162 million in 2024, a substantial increase of 1699% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong performance from Las Bambas and the acquisition of Khoemacau [2] Production Outlook - Las Bambas is expected to return to normal operations in 2024, with copper production projected at 322,900 tons, and production guidance for 2025 set at 360,000 to 400,000 tons [3] - Kinsevere is transitioning from oxide to sulfide ore, with 2024 copper production expected at 45,000 tons and guidance for 2025 set at 63,000 to 69,000 tons, with a potential reduction in C1 costs [3] - Khoemacau, acquired in 2024, is projected to produce 31,000 tons of copper in 2024, with guidance for 2025 set at 43,000 to 53,000 tons, and expansion plans aiming for an annual capacity of 130,000 tons by 2028 [3] Industry Insights - The copper industry is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with capital expenditures declining and resource depletion creating supply constraints [4] - The recent drop in copper prices is expected to have absorbed pessimistic demand forecasts, with downstream consumption likely to grow as prices stabilize [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices due to the growth potential of its three major copper projects and an improving financial structure [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with net profits projected at $420 million, $640 million, and $750 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 162%, 50%, and 18% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $0.03, $0.05, and $0.06 for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.6, 7.1, and 6.0 [4] - Given the company's resource advantages and growth potential, a target price of HKD 3.5 is set, with an initial "buy" rating based on a valuation of 8.5 times the 2026 earnings [4]