在这个夏天，尽管刚结束的美联储议息会议并未宣布降息，但种种迹象表明，未来一年美国利率的大幅下降或是大概率事件。与此同时，国际金价已经站 稳3200美金，伦敦铜则在9000-10000美元的关口区域酝酿着进一步的突破，而备受关注的中国稀土价格指数亦在不断攀升。 上述情境并非孤立事件，而是全球政经格局裂变下资源品种正在迎来系统性重估的缩影。 当美联储降息预期与债务风暴碰撞，当绿色转型遭遇地缘博弈，资源板块正成为资金暗涌的方向。 对于个人投资者来说，又该如何把握资源行情？ 多因素交织，资源品价值重估 当前，无论是海内外宏观形势还是战略资源供需结构，又或者是市场周期与政策导向，都在不断推升资源品的配置价值。 01 美国通胀与债务压力下的资源价值重估 当前，美国债务规模正在持续扩大，国债规模占美国GDP比例高达124%，而美联储降息迟疑，服务业价格高企，存在重演70年代后半段通胀"死灰复 燃"局面的可能性。 市场预期，美联储最终将会降息以缓解债务成本压力。一旦降息落地，美元走弱将直接提振大宗商品价格，尤其是黄金和顺周期资源品如铜、原油等。 02 战略资源面临供需紧平衡或结构性短缺 从供需结构来看，当前以铜、黄金、稀土等 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 维持金铜铝增配，锂供给扰动价格上行可期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 锂方面，根据期货日报，江西大型矿山或因矿证续期不及预期将面临停产。由于停产时间不定， 按照年化产能计算，全年供需过剩幅度大幅收缩。本周工业金属商品反弹，且外盘更强，主要 源于美元走弱与反内卷情绪升温：1）受就业数据低预期及特朗普持续表达降息倾向影响，美债 处于低位、美元继续走弱，推升工业金属商品价格；2）前期降温的反内卷情绪本周有所升温， 也对工业金属产生利好。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 金属、非金属与采矿 cjzqdt11111 [Tabl ...

Company Overview - Company is a global metal mining giant focused on upstream metal resources, operating internationally with headquarters in Melbourne, Australia [1] - The company has undergone two major transformations since its listing in Hong Kong in 1994, including the acquisition of MMG in 2010 and the purchase of the Las Bambas copper mine in 2014, significantly enhancing its resource strength [1] - In 2024, the company completed the acquisition of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana, adding a key copper asset to its portfolio, which now includes five overseas mines (3 copper and 2 zinc) [1] Financial Performance - Copper is the core metal, contributing significantly to revenue, with copper products generating $3.308 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for 73.86% of total revenue [2] - Las Bambas mine alone contributed $2.978 billion in revenue, representing 66.48% of total revenue and $1.594 billion in EBITDA, which is 77.82% of the company's EBITDA [2] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $162 million in 2024, a substantial increase of 1699% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong performance from Las Bambas and the acquisition of Khoemacau [2] Production Outlook - Las Bambas is expected to return to normal operations in 2024, with copper production projected at 322,900 tons, and production guidance for 2025 set at 360,000 to 400,000 tons [3] - Kinsevere is transitioning from oxide to sulfide ore, with 2024 copper production expected at 45,000 tons and guidance for 2025 set at 63,000 to 69,000 tons, with a potential reduction in C1 costs [3] - Khoemacau, acquired in 2024, is projected to produce 31,000 tons of copper in 2024, with guidance for 2025 set at 43,000 to 53,000 tons, and expansion plans aiming for an annual capacity of 130,000 tons by 2028 [3] Industry Insights - The copper industry is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with capital expenditures declining and resource depletion creating supply constraints [4] - The recent drop in copper prices is expected to have absorbed pessimistic demand forecasts, with downstream consumption likely to grow as prices stabilize [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices due to the growth potential of its three major copper projects and an improving financial structure [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with net profits projected at $420 million, $640 million, and $750 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 162%, 50%, and 18% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $0.03, $0.05, and $0.06 for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.6, 7.1, and 6.0 [4] - Given the company's resource advantages and growth potential, a target price of HKD 3.5 is set, with an initial "buy" rating based on a valuation of 8.5 times the 2026 earnings [4]