证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 超长债周报 超长债收益率再创新高 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周央行公布 11 月买债 500 亿，买债规模持平于 10 月， 另外公开市场大幅净回笼，12 月通胀继续回暖，A 股开门红量价齐升， 债市先抑后扬，超长债收益率周中再创新高。成交方面，上周超长债交 投活跃度小幅上升，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走 阔，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 1 月 9 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 42BP，处于历 史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我们 测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通胀 方面，12 月 CPI 为 0.8%，PPI 为-1.9%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要 来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到 2025 年四季度并无增发国债，伴随 着四季度政府债券融资增速的回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从 中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11][38]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread冲高 slightly declined this week, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is also expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk was alleviated. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and bond market analysis are similar to those of 30 - year Treasury bonds. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24,341.6 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, with a total of 207 million yuan issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased significantly. In terms of varieties, local government bonds accounted for the majority. In terms of terms, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 120 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 123.02 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume and proportion of different varieties changed differently [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend. The 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced a 50 billion yuan investment in November through treasury bond trading, and the November PMI rose by 0.2 to 49.2. The bond market experienced a certain degree of sell - off, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread showing mixed changes [1][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 5, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. Considering factors such as economic pressure and low interest rates, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to face short - term pressure [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 5, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given the economic situation and market sentiment, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's November treasury bond trading investment and the rise in PMI led to a sell - off in the bond market and a tumble in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased significantly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread showing mixed changes [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The 30 - 10 spread is at a low level. The economy is under pressure, and the spread is expected to face short - term pressure [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond is extremely low. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, totaling 5.73 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 2.7 billion yuan, local government bonds were 2.88 billion yuan, and corporate bonds were 0.15 billion yuan. By term, 15 - year bonds were 1.1 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds were 0.93 billion yuan, and 30 - year bonds were 3.69 billion yuan [20]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 3.47 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1.1346 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.6% of the total bond turnover. Compared with the previous two weeks, the turnover increased by 221 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 3.3% [29]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to the central bank's investment and PMI changes, ultra - long bonds tumbled. The yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds at different terms all changed, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield rising by 7BP to 2.26% [39]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 41BP, up 7BP from the previous two weeks, at the 24% quantile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads of the 20 - year CDB bond and railway bond against the treasury bond were 14BP and 16BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous two weeks, at the 11% quantile since 2010 [53]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.51 yuan, down 1.7%. The total trading volume was 706,800 lots, and the open interest was 145,600 lots, with a significant increase in trading volume and a slight decrease in open interest [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market rebounded from the bottom, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active [1][3][10][37]. - The economic data shows downward pressure, and deflation risks still exist. It is expected that the bond market will rebound in October. The 30 - 10 spread and the 20 - year China Development Bank bond spread are expected to compress [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, the export data in September was still strong. With inflation rising year-on-year, financial data under pressure, and the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom [1][10][37]. - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10][4]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and the upcoming release of Q3 economic data, it is expected that the bond market will rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread will compress [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically very low level. With the expected rebound of the bond market, the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance [13]. - Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.0%, local government bonds 67.3%, and others accounted for relatively small proportions [13]. - The 30-year variety has the highest proportion. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 year (inclusive) variety accounted for 39.9%, the highest [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 57.7 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, mainly including 40 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 17.7 billion yuan of local government bonds [20]. - By maturity, 50.4 billion yuan had a 20-year maturity, 6.1 billion yuan a 30-year maturity, and 1.3 billion yuan a 15-year maturity [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume [29]. - By variety, ultra-long Treasury bonds had a trading volume of 894.9 billion yuan, ultra-long local bonds 156.5 billion yuan, ultra-long policy financial bonds 6.1 billion yuan, and ultra-long government agency bonds 6.7 billion yuan [30]. - Compared with the week before last, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the trading volume and proportion of most varieties changing to varying degrees [30]. Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different maturities changed to varying degrees [37]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond active bond 25 ultra-long special Treasury bond 02 decreased by 1.6BP to 2.068%, and the yield of the 20-year China Development Bank bond active bond 21 China Development Bank 20 decreased by 1.5BP to 2.175% [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [4][46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 respectively [4][52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots), both increasing significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the funding situation continued to tighten near the half - year mark, and MLF was scaled back. The bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread remained flat [1][9][36] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering that the funding rate will decline again after the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but the term spread protection is limited [2][10] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The bond market is more likely to rise after the half - year mark, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the Israel - Iran cease - fire, tightened funding near the half - year mark, and MLF scaling back, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Trading activity increased significantly, and both term and variety spreads remained flat [1][9][36] 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of June 27, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May GDP growth rate was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still higher than the annual target. May CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but term spread protection is limited [2][10] 20 - year CDB Bond - As of June 27, the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond spread was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Economic data shows similar characteristics as the 30 - year treasury bond situation. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but variety spread protection is limited [3][11] 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 21.6823 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [12] 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 389.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [17] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 33.6 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [21] 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 1.3892 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.2% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [23] Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term and different - variety ultra - long bonds changed to varying degrees [36] Spread Analysis - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP. The variety spread also remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond spread was 9BP [42][43] 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.89 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. Trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and open interest increased slightly [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the situation of the trade war was uncertain, causing the bond market to fluctuate. With a loose funding environment and the overnight interest rate dropping back to 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the week. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economy in April still showed resilience. The estimated year-on-year GDP growth rate in April was about 4.1%, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. In terms of inflation, the CPI in April was -0.1% and the PPI was -2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino-US trade frictions and the dissipation of investors' pessimistic expectations, the short-term focus will shift to the domestic economic data of the second quarter. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the bond yield is more likely to decline. However, the current term spread of the 30-year treasury bond is still low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30-year treasury bond. It is also expected that the bond yield will decline as the policy support effect weakens. However, the current variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is still low, providing limited protection [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, due to the uncertain trade war situation and a loose funding environment with the overnight interest rate at 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The trading activity increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As analyzed above for the 30-year treasury bond and 20-year CDB bond [2][3]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of May 31, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was low, totaling 117.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to the week before last. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 104.9 billion yuan, and by term, 20-year bonds accounted for 56.5 billion yuan [19]. - **Upcoming Issuance This Week**: The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 108.1 billion yuan, including 71 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds and 37.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a turnover of 903.9 billion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the total bond turnover. Compared to the week before last, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover increasing by 42.2 billion yuan and the proportion increasing by 0.2% [28][29]. - **Yield**: Affected by the trade war and the funding environment, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds had different changes, such as the 15-year treasury bond yield decreasing by 2BP to 1.85% [36]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, a 6BP increase from the week before last, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also widened but was at a low absolute level. The spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20-year railway bond and the treasury bond was 7BP, with changes of 0BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, at the 2% and 3% quantiles since 2010 [48]. 3.4 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.41 yuan, a decrease of 0.16%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (-60,932 lots), and the open interest was 113,500 lots (-15,740 lots), showing a slight decline in both [50].