1）猪价低位震荡&仔猪价格近 3 月新低。截至 6 月 14 日，全国生猪均价 14.39 元/kg，较上周末持平（智农通），本周猪价低位震荡，行 业自繁自养盈利约 72 元/头，环比-53 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪和 50kg 二元母猪价格为 465 元/头和 1620 元/头，仔猪价格近 3 月新低。① 供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.28kg（环比-0.27%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为 4.82%（环比-0.12pct），虽有所减重但绝对体重仍处历史 同期高位。②需求端，消费有所降级，叠加气温升高，猪肉进入年内季节性消费疲软期，虽收储短期提振市场信心，但对需求无明显刺 激（收储 1 万吨，24 年全年猪肉产量 5706 万吨，占比不足 0.1%）。近期天气炎热或加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势。 ③产 能端，5 月涌益/卓创/钢联能繁环比+0.92%/+1.44%/+0.32%（4 月分别为+0.96%/+0.01%/+0.41%），盈利情况下 5 月能繁仍呈惯性增长，但 近期供强需弱下猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势，行业有望进入亏损状态。且南方雨季或带动猪病有所反复（历年 6-7 月份 90 ...

在行业高库存压力下，玉米种业实现营收21.21 亿元，保持较好的经营韧性；3）巴西玉米：在国际粮价 下跌及极端气候扰动下，公司销量持平，市占率维持在20%左右，但种子销价下降带动销售额下滑至29 亿元；另外由于贷款利息及汇兑损失影响，净利润出现较大幅度下滑；4）蔬菜、杂谷及食葵种业均取 得较好增长。此外，公司2024 年累计计提减值损失4.56 亿元。 国内外玉米种业承压为一季度公司营收及利润下滑主因。2025Q1 公司总收入14 亿元（yoy-32%），归 属净利润-209 万元（yoy-103%），摊薄后EPS-0.002元。计提减值转回约1680 万元。一季度公司营收下 滑主要是玉米种子市场供应宽松、品种更新迭代加速及市场竞争加剧，导致国内外玉米种子业务销量下 滑；同时由于主营业务毛利润减少，叠加固定成本费用刚性支出，进一步压缩利润空间，故而公司净利 润同比下降。 国内种业龙头优势稳固，静待巴西玉米种业复苏。2024 年起国内杂交水稻种业进入去库存阶段，水稻 种业迎来景气向上的拐点；隆平高科品种梯队储备完善，核心优势凸显，高增长有望延续。国内玉米库 存压力高企，逆势中更显隆平经营韧性；海外玉米种子或受益 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The rice seed industry is experiencing counter-cyclical growth with better-than-expected profitability; the domestic corn seed industry maintains its leading advantage and demonstrates operational resilience; the overseas corn seed industry may reach a transformative turning point and is expected to benefit from changes in international trade dynamics, leading to market expansion. The long-term development prospects of the company are viewed positively [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 85.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.14 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.09 yuan [2][18]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 94.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.32 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 279% [18][21]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 13.6 billion yuan, with a current share price of 10.29 yuan [3][6]. Performance Summary - The domestic rice seed business has shown strong performance, with a revenue increase of 13% in 2024, leading to a net profit of 340 million yuan, which is over 50% growth [6][19]. - The domestic corn seed business generated revenue of 2.12 billion yuan despite high inventory pressures, showcasing operational resilience [6][19]. - The overseas corn seed business faced challenges due to falling international grain prices and extreme weather, but maintained a market share of around 20% [6][19]. Future Outlook - The domestic hybrid rice seed industry is entering a destocking phase, indicating a potential upward trend in the rice seed market; the company’s product lineup is well-prepared, and high growth is expected to continue [6][19]. - The overseas corn seed market is anticipated to benefit from changes in international trade patterns, leading to market expansion opportunities [6][19]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in its Brazilian corn seed business, contributing positively to its overall performance [6][19].