运力

Search documents
欧线航数脉搏2025W32
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 13:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loading rate of the European route fleet departing from China decreased, and the loading difference between Asia and China decreased to the average level of April - May. The supply pressure in October remains high, and the delay of ship schedules has improved, while the decline of the SCFIS index will continue to widen [7][14][18][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W32 European route fleet's average loading rate when departing from China was 89.7%, a 3.0% decrease from the previous period, reaching the lowest point since April. The loading rate of the European route fleet departing from Asia in W31 was 96.8%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period, and the loading difference between Asia and China decreased to the average level of April - May [7] - Among different alliances, the OA's loading rate when departing from China was 92.2%, with a slight decline; PA and MSC's was 91.3%, continuing to decline; Gemini's was 85.2%, with a large decline, dragging down the comprehensive loading rate [9] 3.2. European Route Ship Schedules and Capacity - The average weekly capacity in August was 326,000 TEU, higher than that in July. The average weekly capacity in September was 308,000 TEU, higher than the average level of June - July. The average weekly capacity in October was 286,000 TEU, higher than that in March and the same period last year, and the supply pressure remains high [14] - The SWAN route's last port was changed from Antwerp to Felixstowe, and the ship schedule delays are expected to improve significantly after October. MSC's ALBATROS route cancelled Shanghai挂靠 from W28, and the BRITANNIA route cancelled Ningbo挂靠 and added new ports from W28 [12][14] 3.3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - In W32, 6 ship schedules were delayed to W33, and the delay situation improved compared to last week. The proportion of previously delayed capacity in the actually departed ships last week was over 60%. With relatively calm weather in the northern East China Sea this week, the delay situation is expected to improve further [18] - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 2235.48 points, a 2.7% decline. Due to the high proportion of previously delayed capacity, the decline of the index was less than expected. As the spot price is adjusted downwards and the ship schedule delays improve, the index decline will continue to widen [19] - The actual departing capacity of the European route from Shanghai Port in W32 was 332,200 TEU, of which 62% were delayed ship schedules from W31. By alliance, the weights of Gemini, OA, and PA + MSC were 18%, 37%, and 45% respectively [19] 3.4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - Different alliances have different ship schedule delay situations and early - warning routes in different weeks. For example, in W32, OA's AE1 and AE2 routes were delayed, and in W33, there were early - warnings for OA's AE3 and AE5 routes, etc. [21][28][30] 3.5. Related Port Congestion Data - In China, due to the residual impact of previous typhoons, the congestion pressure in Ningbo and Shanghai ports is still high. Yangshan Port's average turnover time is about 2.0 days, Ningbo Port's is about 2.8 days, and Yantian Port's is about 1.2 days. As the shipping volume decreases, the port pressure is expected to ease, but potential weather disturbances need to be monitored [39] - In Southeast Asia, the port congestion pressure has significantly decreased. The average in - port time of ships in Singapore Port is 1.4 days, and in Port Klang is 1.0 days [39] - In Europe, problems such as summer holidays, labor shortages, railway construction in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine River are still ongoing. The average in - port time of Antwerp Port is about 1.8 days, Rotterdam's is 2.5 days, Hamburg Port's is 2.7 days, and Bremen Port's is 3.1 days [39]