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蛋白数据日报-20250806
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 10:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean good-to-excellent rate has risen to 70% this week. Although there will be slightly less rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks, there is no significant high temperature, so the expected impact is limited. [7] - Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the outlook for soybean meal remains positive. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy. [7] - In the short term, the high存栏 of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the存栏 and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its提货 is at a high level. Some areas are using wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. [8] - This week, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased. The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly but remains in the accumulation cycle. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased. [8] - Overall, the US soybean market has rebounded. Under the current Sino - US trade policy, the Brazilian premium remains strong. The domestic situation is one of weak current reality but strong future expectations. The 101 contract of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. [8] 3. Directory - based Summaries 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of soybean meal's main contract in different regions on August 5th: Dalian was 67 with a change of 21; Tianjin was - 23 with a change of 21; etc. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions also varied, such as - 83 in Zhangjiagang with a change of 21. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 124 with a change of - 46. [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spreads include M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1, etc. For example, M9 - RM9 was - 11 in the 24/25 period. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 with a change of 30, and the main - contract spread was 299 with a change of - 47. [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory data shows the trends of Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 to 2025. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly but remains in the accumulation cycle. [7][8] 3.4开机 and Pressing Situation - The data presents the trends of national major oil mills' soybean pressing volume and开机 rate from 2020 to 2025. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons. [7]
蛋白数据日报-20250728
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 09:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic near - month soybean purchases are mostly covered, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The near - month basis is expected to remain under pressure. M09 is expected to be range - bound, and for M01, it is recommended to buy on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to China - US policies [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on July 25 was 19, - 81 in Tianjin, - 161 in both Rizhao and Zhangjiagang, - 141 in Dongguan, - 121 in both Zhanjiang and Fangcheng. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 155, with a decrease of - 103 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - M9 - 1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - RM9 being - 4 and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 346 [6][7] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The USD - CNY exchange rate was 104.00 with no change. There are data on Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil mills' soybean inventories, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventories, etc. [7] 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - Supply: This week, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%. In the next two weeks, Kansas is expected to be dry, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but other areas have normal weather, generally conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to last until September; the shipping in China from October to January is slow [7] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, and soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance. The pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal is normal [8] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250724
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 05:00
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily report on agricultural products, specifically focusing on the soybean and bean meal markets [4][5] - It was released by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on July 24, 2025 [5] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - The basis of the main bean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on July 23 was -25, with a change of 21. Other locations like Tianjin had a basis of -55 (change of 51), and Rizhao had -175 (change of 11) [6] - The basis of 43% bean meal spot in different locations such as Zhangjiagang (-175, change of -9), Dongguan (-195, change of 11), etc., was also reported [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was -128 [6] Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread was -21, M9 - RM9 was -3, and RM9 - 1 was 15. The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 337 (change of -13), and the spread of the main contract was 270 (change of -10) [7] Exchange Rate and Profit Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1137. The soybean CNF premium was 110.00 cents per bushel, and the import soybean gross profit was reported for different Brazilian months [7] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - The supply side shows that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska may face high - temperature and drought conditions, but overall, the weather is favorable for soybean growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of bean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September [7] - On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand. The high cost - performance of bean meal increases its proportion in feed, and提货 is at a high level. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein demand [8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises for bean meal have increased [8] Group 3: Core View - Overall, domestic bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. There are no conditions for a sharp rise in short - term spot prices. With a low basis, the upside space above 009 is limited. Under the support of import costs, it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on M01 [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250710
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations from June to August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 levels. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [6] Price and Spread - On July 9th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) and the spot basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions (such as Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, etc.) showed different values and changes. The spot spread and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong also have corresponding data [4][5] Other Data - There are data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the futures crushing profit, the import soybean futures gross profit, the CNF premium of soybeans, the inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]
蛋白数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider low - level long positions for M01 [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 is at a high level. However, in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The document provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts in different regions on July 8, including the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian, Tianjin, etc., and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot and rapeseed meal spot. It also shows the spread data such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1, as well as the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [4][5]. Other Data - The document also includes data on the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, soybean CNF premium, soybean inventory in Chinese ports and major oil mills across the country, soybean meal inventory in major oil mills and feed enterprises, soybean crushing volume and operating rate of major oil mills [5].
蛋白数据日报-20250702
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA planting area report and quarterly inventory report adjustments are limited, with an overall neutral impact [8] - The US soybean supply and demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation, and the CBOT US soybean futures and domestic soybean meal futures are more sensitive to the weather in US production areas [8] - Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, supporting the expected gradual increase of the soybean meal futures price center. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the far - month M01 contract [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on July 1st, the basis in Dalian is - 11, in Rizhao is - 81, in Tianjin is - 41, in Zhangjiagang is - 121, in Dongguan is - 111, in Zhanjiang is - 111, and in Fangcheng is - 111 [6] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is - 96, with a decline of - 54 [6] - The M9 - M1 spread and M9 - RM9 spread are presented, and the RM9 - 1 spread has values such as 280, 1200, etc. in different periods [6][7] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 375, with a decline of - 14, and the main - contract price difference is 360 [7] 3.2 Exchange Rate, Profit, and Premium Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.1122, and the E - type soybean import premium is 111.00 cents per bushel [7] - The import soybean futures gross profit is 232 yuan per ton, with no change [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - Information on China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2025 is presented [7] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In June, July, and August in China, the expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is over 10 million tons per month. The new - crop US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight, with the US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropping to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas will be favorable for growth in the next two weeks [7] - Demand: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, poultry inventory remains high, soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, feed addition ratio increases, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein [7][8] - Inventory: As of last Friday, domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a historical high for the same period, while soybean meal inventory is at a historical low, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days continue to rise [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250625
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The good rate of US soybeans remains at 66%, and the weather in the production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks. As the downstream inventory gradually rises, the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation rate is expected to accelerate. The spot basis is still under pressure. The short - term 109 trend is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the results of the planting area report at the end of the month [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On June 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 13, down 10; in Tianjin, it was - 87. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Rizhao was - 137, down 20; in Zhangjiagang, it was - 117, down 20; in Dongguan, it was - 157, down 40; in Zhanjiang, it was - 97, down 20; in Fangcheng, it was - 137, down 40. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 62, down 5. The M9 - M1 spread and other data are also presented in the table [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375, down 5; the price difference on the main contract was 280, down 40. The RM9 - 1 spread was 288, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was also presented in the form of a graph [7] Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. As of now, the purchase progress for July is 100%, 66.8% for August, and 25.3% for September. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7] Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 volumes. In some areas, wheat has replaced corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal and far - month basis has increased [7][8] Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises continues to rise [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250619
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 07:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the adjustment of the planting area of US soybeans and US corn in the planting area report at the end of the month. The tense situation in the Middle East, the rise of international crude oil, and the strong rise of soybean oil suppress the performance of the soybean meal futures market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - From June to August in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The purchase progress of ships is 100% in June, 95.9% in July, and 55.2% in August, but it is slow after September. The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas is suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7][8]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly and is still at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation in late June. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased slightly and is still at a low level [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the basis of spot prices, as well as the spread between different contracts [6][7]. Other Data - The report also includes data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the CNF premium of soybeans, the profit of soybean crushing on the futures market, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the soybean crushing volume and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [7].
蛋白数据日报-20250609
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the expectation of improved Sino-US relations drives the rebound of US soybeans, and the Brazilian premium rebounds, leading to an increase in import costs. However, there are no obvious abnormalities in the US soybean planting weather, and domestic ship purchases are progressing. The market lacks strong upward momentum for now, and the price is expected to move sideways [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - On June 6th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Dalian and Rizhao, it was -50 to -170 with a change of -12; in Tianjin, it was -90 with an increase of 8; in Zhangjiagang, it was -110 with a decrease of -52; in Dongguan, it was -190 with a decrease of -32; in Zhanjiang, it was -130 with a decrease of -22; and in Fangcheng, it was -140 with a decrease of -42. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -178 with a decrease of -41 [4]. Spread Data - The M9 - 1 spread was -38, the N9 - RM9 spread was 7, the RM9 - 1 spread was 261, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 402 with a change of 11, and the盘面 spread (主力) was 390 with a change of 20 [5]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1847, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 132.00 (in cents per bushel), and the import soybean盘面 gross profit was 175 yuan per ton with an increase of 10 [5]. Inventory Data - As of last week, domestic soybean inventories continued to accumulate and were at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory but was still at a low level. With the significant rebound in crushing operations, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate more rapidly in June [6]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: From May to July, the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of now, the purchase progress for June is 94.4%, July is 80.6%, and August is 33.8%. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth [5][6]. - Demand: Based on inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, poultry inventory remains high, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions have increased with better提货 [6].