8月下旬PTA现货行情上涨至月内高点，主要原因是去库存预期叠加成本支撑。展望9月份，PTA低加工 费之下，可能会有其他计划外的装置停车。随着计划外的PTA装置停车消息出现，预估9月PTA去库存 较多，现货基差或将走强，行情也将上涨。 受去库预期和成本支撑共同作用，8月下旬，国内PTA现货行情涨至月内高点。具体来看，一方面，华 东220万吨PTA装置重启后再度停车，而华南500万吨PTA装置计划外陆续停车，导致8月PTA产量预估值 下降至615万吨左右，加速PTA现货去库存。 另外，上周市场传言韩国可能减产石脑油。由于PX供需错配的格局存在，石脑油减产预期利好PX行 情，间接助力PTA行情上涨。 此外，截至8月22日当周，国内PTA加工费震荡在200元／吨上下，PTA企业生产亏损，计划外的装置检 修预期仍在。 此外，截至8月21日，8月PTA月均加工费196元／吨，PTA生产亏损，9月可能有其他计划外PTA装置检 修，助力PTA继续去库存。 进一步从需求市场看，目前下游聚酯市场处于从需求淡季向需求旺季过渡的阶段，虽然涤纶长丝大厂可 能减产部分涤纶长丝FDY产量，但预估整体影响有限，伴随着终端织机开机率回升，需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is overall bearish, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets lack clear drivers, and the markets are mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The rapeseed meal market has concerns about future supply, but there are also uncertainties [4][5][7] - The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly from South America. The domestic soybean meal spot is relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening [5][6] - Macro - level information is unclear, and the short - term decline of the soybean market is limited. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to widen, and the spreads between different contract months may face pressure [7] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a slight upward trend. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures generally declined slightly. The soybean meal inter - month spreads continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal spreads were relatively stable [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is bearish. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. The US soybean exports were lowered, but the crushing was raised, and the ending stocks slightly increased. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent selling has further slowed down. The Brazilian soybean crushing has decreased, and the Argentine domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and although the supply is also uncertain, it is expected to be in a range - bound operation [6] Group 6: Macro - level Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market has concerns about future supply uncertainty. The international trade has many uncertainties, and the soybean market is not likely to decline significantly in the short term [7] Group 7: Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures oscillate in a narrow range, supported by future supply uncertainty. The US soybean futures have limited decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads may face pressure but have limited decline space. The rapeseed meal is affected by supply uncertainty, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [7] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [8] - Arbitrage: RM91 reverse arbitrage [8] - Options: Wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have limited changes, with reduced market volatility. The soybean meal futures price is driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures price is affected by the uncertainty of future supply. The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly concentrated in South America. The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The report provides trading strategies, including suggesting to exit long positions and positive spreads, and to wait and see for options [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong trend. After the monthly supply - demand report showed negative news, the market rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of future supply. The inter - month spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends [2]. Fundamentals - The adjustment of the US soybean new - crop balance sheet was negative, with lower exports and higher crushing, and a slight increase in ending stocks. As of July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The export inspection volume of old - crop US soybeans was 389,400 tons as of July 3. The May US soybean crushing data was good, with a 1.37% month - on - month increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers was slow, and the recent selling progress continued to slow down, with price pressure emerging. Brazilian soybean crushing decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the international soybean supply pressure is concentrated in South America [3]. - The domestic spot market was relatively loose. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons (a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons (a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and although the supply is uncertain, the demand is also weakening, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [5]. Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear information, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainty. The domestic soybean meal futures had some support, but the rebound space was limited. The US soybean futures were expected to have limited deep - decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads of the futures may face some pressure but also have limited deep - decline space. The rapeseed meal market was mainly affected by supply uncertainty, and it was difficult to show a strong trend. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen, and the inter - month spread of rapeseed meal futures may also face pressure [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 positive spread and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has warmed up. PTA has strengthened in the context of supply - side contraction. Although the polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduced load, the actual polyester production has reached a new high. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. PTA spot is becoming looser, and the market spot arrival volume has increased. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The maintenance of the Northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2]. - For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded slightly, and commodity sentiment has clearly warmed up. However, the later arrival volume is large. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. The rapid rise in polyester prices has compressed downstream weaving profits, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 513.9 yuan/barrel on July 11, 2025, to 527.5 yuan/barrel on July 14, 2025, an increase of 13.60 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The PTA - SC price difference decreased from 965.4 yuan/ton to 906.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.83 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2585 to 1.2365, a decrease of 0.0220 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 837 to 852, an increase of 15; the PX - naphtha price difference rose from 253 to 268, an increase of 15 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4700 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the PTA spot price rose from 4710 to 4735, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 193.5 yuan/ton to 136.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.0 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 183.5 yuan/ton to 141.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.0 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from 0 to 8, an increase of 8; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 43274 to 43190, a decrease of 84 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 4305 yuan/ton to 4357 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha price difference increased from (111.24) yuan/ton to (105.43) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price rose from 4384 to 4398, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton; the main basis decreased from 72 to 70, a decrease of 2.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: The PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, and 54.86% respectively, while the polyester load increased from 86.87% to 87.15%, an increase of 0.28% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6645 to 6590, a decrease of 55.0; POY cash flow decreased from (101) to (182), a decrease of 81.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6925 to 6935, a decrease of 90.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (321) to (437), a decrease of 116.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7895 to 7890, a decrease of 5.0; DTY cash flow decreased from (51) to (82), a decrease of 31.0; the long - filament production and sales rate increased from 35% to 37%, an increase of 2%; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6700 to 6685, a decrease of 15; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 304 to 263, a decrease of 41.0; the staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 41% to 73%, an increase of 32%; semi - bright chip price increased from 5795 to 5800, an increase of 5.0; chip cash flow decreased from (51) to (72), a decrease of 21.0; the chip production and sales rate increased from 62% to 144%, an increase of 82% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently been shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations from June to August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 levels. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [6] Price and Spread - On July 9th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) and the spot basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions (such as Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, etc.) showed different values and changes. The spot spread and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong also have corresponding data [4][5] Other Data - There are data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the futures crushing profit, the import soybean futures gross profit, the CNF premium of soybeans, the inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider low - level long positions for M01 [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 is at a high level. However, in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The document provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts in different regions on July 8, including the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian, Tianjin, etc., and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot and rapeseed meal spot. It also shows the spread data such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1, as well as the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [4][5]. Other Data - The document also includes data on the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, soybean CNF premium, soybean inventory in Chinese ports and major oil mills across the country, soybean meal inventory in major oil mills and feed enterprises, soybean crushing volume and operating rate of major oil mills [5].

1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meals, corn, and hogs, dated July 1, 2025 [1][4][6][7][11][13][16] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit; Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2] - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil and US soybean's good growing conditions affect CBOT soybean and soybean oil; domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase, and the spot basis is under pressure [2] Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, capping the upside of raw sugar prices; domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but turn bearish after the rebound due to expected import increase [5] Cotton - The tight supply of old - crop cotton persists in the short - term, but the long - term supply is sufficient; downstream demand is weak, so cotton prices are likely to range - bound [6] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices may remain stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [8] Meals - US soybean planting area was slightly lowered, with a neutral impact; Brazilian soybean market is boosted; domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. Pay attention to demand sustainability and look for long opportunities on dips [11] Corn - Corn supply is tight, and prices are rising steadily in the spot market. Although there are some factors limiting the increase, the long - term supply - demand gap supports price increases. Pay attention to the corn auction and wheat market [13][15] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is still in a range - bound pattern. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline for the 09 contract if the inventory moves backward [16][17] 4. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,240 yuan, down 0.60% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2509 is 7,984 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 256 yuan, down 11.11%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.00% [2] - **Palm oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8,400 yuan, down 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,330 yuan, down 0.55%; the basis is 70 yuan, down 43.55%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 4.79% [2] - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,080 yuan, down 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 is 9,415 yuan, down 0.54%; the basis is 165 yuan, down 10.33% [2] Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.50%, and sugar 2509 increased by 0.26%; ICE raw sugar decreased by 3.00%; the 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.77% [5] - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and in Kunming increased by 0.08%; the basis in Nanning decreased by 8.39%, and in Kunming decreased by 10.20% [5] - **Industry situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the inventory decreased by 9.56% [5] Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.15%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.04%; ICE US cotton decreased by 1.85%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 300.00% [6] - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.43%, and CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.30% [6] - **Industry situation**: Industrial inventory decreased by 1.2%, imports decreased by 33.3%, and textile exports showed mixed performance [6] Eggs - **Futures market**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 0.44%, and the 07 contract increased by 0.64%; the basis decreased by 20.78%, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 0.23% [7] - **Spot market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 4.90% [7] - **Related indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens increased by 4.05%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% [7] Meals - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,840 yuan, up 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 is 2,961 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 121 yuan, up 3.97%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 13.3% [11] - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,470 yuan, up 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,572 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 102 yuan, up 20.93%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.17% [11] - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.02%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.22% [11] Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,378 yuan, down 0.25%; the basis is 2 yuan, up 150.00%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 8.11%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [13] - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,733 yuan, down 0.36%; the basis is - 13 yuan, up 43.48%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 11.76%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.14% [13] Hogs - **Futures market**: The price of the 2507 contract increased by 1.65%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 94.74%; the main - contract position increased by 1.78% [16] - **Spot market**: The prices in various regions generally increased, with the largest increase of 600 yuan in Guangdong [16] - **Related indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.27%; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02%, and the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49%; the fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The good rate of US soybeans remains at 66%, and the weather in the production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks. As the downstream inventory gradually rises, the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation rate is expected to accelerate. The spot basis is still under pressure. The short - term 109 trend is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the results of the planting area report at the end of the month [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On June 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 13, down 10; in Tianjin, it was - 87. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Rizhao was - 137, down 20; in Zhangjiagang, it was - 117, down 20; in Dongguan, it was - 157, down 40; in Zhanjiang, it was - 97, down 20; in Fangcheng, it was - 137, down 40. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 62, down 5. The M9 - M1 spread and other data are also presented in the table [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375, down 5; the price difference on the main contract was 280, down 40. The RM9 - 1 spread was 288, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was also presented in the form of a graph [7] Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. As of now, the purchase progress for July is 100%, 66.8% for August, and 25.3% for September. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7] Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 volumes. In some areas, wheat has replaced corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal and far - month basis has increased [7][8] Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises continues to rise [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated, with Israel attacking Iranian oil - field facilities and Iran responding. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow [2]. - PTA is expected to reduce inventory in the coming period. The actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. Polyester has recently rapidly reduced inventory, and the inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, market purchasing willingness has increased [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict escalation may affect Iran's petrochemical exports. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit has expanded, and the recent blockage of ethane imports from the United States has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue the inventory - reduction rhythm, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 552.7 yuan/barrel on June 18, 2025, to 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, an increase of 18.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 897.5 yuan/ton to 839.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.26 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2234 to 1.2023, a decrease of 0.0212; PTA main - contract futures price rose from 4914 yuan/ton to 4988 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price remained at 5190 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 409.2 yuan/ton to 324.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.5 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee decreased from 103.2 yuan/ton to 92.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton; main - contract basis decreased from 293 to 270, a decrease of 23.0; PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 80591 to 37468, a decrease of 43123 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract futures price rose from 4471 yuan/ton to 4539 yuan/ton, an increase of 68.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (129.84) yuan/ton to (127.03) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 4529 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; main - contract basis increased from 82 to 86, an increase of 4.0 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 888 to 904, an increase of 16; PX - naphtha spread rose from 262 to 271, an increase of 9; PX operating rate decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.80% to 78.56%, a decrease of 5.24% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 56.16% to 57.88%, an increase of 1.72% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 89.99% to 89.98%, a decrease of 0.01% [2]. Product Price and Cash - flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 7130 to 7120, a decrease of 10.0; POY cash - flow decreased from (75) to (103), a decrease of 28.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7445; FDY cash - flow decreased from (260) to (278), a decrease of 18.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 8370 to 8390, an increase of 20.0; DTY cash - flow increased from (35) to (33), an increase of 2.0; filament sales rate decreased from 59% to 31%, a decrease of 28% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6835 to 6890, an increase of 55; staple - fiber cash - flow increased from (20) to 17, an increase of 37.0; staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 64% to 61%, a decrease of 3% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip decreased from 6055 to 6050, a decrease of 5.0; chip cash - flow decreased from (250) to (273), a decrease of 23.0; chip sales rate increased from 40% to 42%, an increase of 2% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 1.5 - million - ton PTA device has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6; an East - China 3 - million - ton PTA device has recently shut down for maintenance, expected to last about 10 days [4].