Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant rise in bank stocks, with notable increases in major banks such as China Bank and Construction Bank, indicating a positive sentiment towards the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - China Bank rose over 5%, Construction Bank over 4%, and Postal Savings Bank over 3%, with several other banks also showing gains of over 2% [1]. - Bank ETFs, including various Southern and E-Fund ETFs, have also experienced upward movement, reflecting the overall positive trend in the banking sector [3]. Group 2: ETF Insights - Bank ETFs track the China Securities Bank Index, with nearly 30% of their holdings in major state-owned banks like Industrial and Agricultural Bank, while about 70% focuses on high-growth banks [3]. - The Bank AH Preferred ETF tracks the Bank AH Index, utilizing a monthly security category conversion strategy based on AH prices [4]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - As of Q3 2025, insurance capital has increased its holdings in the banking sector, with a holding ratio of 27.95% and a market value accounting for 3.99% of circulating A-shares [5]. - Insurance capital has increased its positions in 23 banks, with 10 banks seeing increased holdings, indicating a growing interest in the banking sector [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing a style shift, influenced by factors such as the approaching end-of-year assessments for institutions and the central bank's implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The decline in the proportion of bank holdings among public funds suggests a potential opportunity for reallocation towards undervalued financial stocks [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to continue increasing its investment in banks, driven by stable dividends and low valuations, with a focus on high ROE small and medium-sized banks [6]. - The ongoing improvement in net profits for banks and the potential for valuation reconstruction through increased capital inflows are seen as positive indicators for the banking sector's future [6].

Core Insights - Trump's threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China has caused significant market turbulence [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for moderate easing in the current context, with potential further rate cuts expected within the year [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, with actual GDP growth decelerating and a softening labor market [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve anticipates a reduction in bank reserves to approximately $2.8 trillion by Q1 2026 as part of its balance sheet normalization process [2] - The initial October inflation rate expectation in the U.S. is 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 4.7% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October is at 55, marking the lowest level since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [2] Upcoming Events - Key economic indicators to be released include China's September CPI on October 15 and the U.S. September PPI on October 16 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event on October 17 [3] - A G20 finance ministers and central bank governors press conference is set for October 17 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fluctuated. The rise was mainly due to the policy benefits brought by the simultaneous reduction of LPR and deposit rates, which strengthened the market's expectation of a further decline in the interest rate center and boosted medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds. However, after the policy was implemented, along with the increasing game sentiment on the progress of Sino - US negotiations and future economic data, the risk preference recovered, increasing the upward pressure on long - bond yields, and the futures bond trends became more differentiated and volatile. The approaching supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on the fiscal side also intensified market concerns about duration pressure. Overall, the subsequent trend still depends on the performance of economic data and the rhythm of fiscal policies [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% (-2.97%) [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.60 (+0.61%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1865, with a month - on - month increase of 0.017 (+0.23%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 (+1.20%); DR007 was 1.62, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 (-2.17%); R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.69, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 (+1.10%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.10, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+1.10%) [9] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Market Data**: On May 27, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.74 yuan, and 119.46 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.11%, and - 0.26% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.086 yuan, - 0.073 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, and 0.250 yuan respectively [2] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 27, 2025, the central bank conducted a 448 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2] - **Money Market Rates**: The repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.452%, 1.598%, 1.667%, and 1.614% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2] 4. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, etc. [36][41][42] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents data on the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years through figures [44][46][57] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows data on the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years through figures [53][56][59] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides data on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years through figures [64][67] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report gives data on the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years through figures [71][76][78] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - After the US and China reached a temporary agreement in the Geneva trade talks and significantly reduced tariffs, the market's risk appetite increased significantly, and the risk aversion sentiment declined, leading to a decline in both treasury bonds and treasury bond futures. Investors expect that the easing of Sino-US relations will help stabilize the global economy and reduce the urgency for loose monetary policies. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stock market and the pressure of capital outflow from the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased, and the price of bond futures decreased. Overall, the short-term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the temporary convergence of macro risk premiums [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month-on-month increase and a -0.10% year-on-year decrease; China's PPI (monthly) had a -0.40% month-on-month decrease and a -2.70% year-on-year decrease [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year-on-year was 8.00%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.50% (-2.97%) [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 100.04, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.31 (-0.31%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.2190, with a month-on-month increase of 0.003 (+0.04%); SHIBOR 7-day was 1.56, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 (-0.38%); DR007 was 1.59, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.02 (-0.99%); R007 was 1.76, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.63, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 (-0.62%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.12, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 (-0.62%) [8] II. Treasury and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds of each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds of each term in the recent day, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (top 20), the long - short position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (top 20), the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [6][9][14][16][17][22] III. Money Market Fundamentals - Relevant figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open market operations, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [24][31][34] IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [39][43][44] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [46][48][58] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [54][57][61] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [65][68] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [72][74][77] Strategy - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase interest rates, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, and the 2506 contract is neutral [3] - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3] - **Hedging**: There is adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality development of the real economy and promote economic recovery [1] Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC is enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and utilizing various monetary policy tools to create a favorable monetary accumulation environment [1] - There has been an increase in the quantity of monetary credit, a decrease in prices, and an optimization of the structure of credit this year [1]