来源：市场资讯 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美联储会议纪要重申谨慎政策立场，市场预期 7 月降息概率渺茫。本周 可重点关注美国 6 月通胀数据 CPI & PPI、 美联储经济状况褐皮书以及美联储官员讲话等。 上周回顾美联储公布 6 月货币政策会议纪要，美联储审议了近期金融市场和经济形势。会议指出，尽管 近几个月通胀有所缓解，但仍高于 2% 的长期目标，且短期通胀预期偏高。与会者认为经济增长稳健， 失业率维持在低位，消费与投资数据总体稳定，但贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治风险和关税上调带来的 潜在影响仍构成主要风险。美国至 7 月 5 日当周初请失业金人数 22.7 万人，预期 23.5 万人，前值由 23.3 万人修正为 23.2 万人。中国外汇储备规模为 33174 亿美元，较 5 月末上升 322 亿美元，升幅为 0.98%。中国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.1%。 本周重点事件 & 指标 7 月 14 日 美国总统特朗普计划就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明" 7 月 15 日中国第二季度 GDP 年率（10:00）美国 6 月未季调 CPI 年率（20:30） 7 月 1 ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment data for June showed a rare divergence, with a disappointing ADP report but strong non-farm payrolls, indicating mixed labor market signals [1][2] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, moving from clean energy investments and social security expansion to tax cuts, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration enforcement [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment number decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest drop since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 95,000 [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, slightly below the expected 240,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [2] - Seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expectation of 110,000 [2] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill includes a $5 trillion increase in the U.S. debt ceiling and significantly cuts funding for healthcare programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects [2] - The European Central Bank's June monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that most inflation indicators suggest medium-term inflation will stabilize around the 2% target [2] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's June foreign exchange reserves and CPI, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent macroeconomic indicators, including the lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.4% for May, and anticipates significant central bank decisions this week, particularly from the U.S., Japan, and the UK [1] - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the previous value was revised from 2.3% [1] - The U.S. May PPI year-on-year remained at 2.6%, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 2.4% to 2.5% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 were reported at 248,000, slightly above the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised to 248,000 [1] - China's May CPI year-on-year was reported at -0.1%, better than the expected -0.2%, while the previous value remained at -0.1% [1] - China's M2 money supply year-on-year growth was reported at 7.9%, below the expected 8.1% and the previous value of 8% [1] - The Federal Reserve's quarterly financial accounts report indicated a decline in U.S. household assets for the first quarter of 2023, marking the first decrease since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and economic projections on June 19, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [1] - The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their rate decisions on June 19 [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor will speak at a trust association meeting on June 20 [2]

编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 上周回顾 本周重点事件 & 指标 05 月 19 日 05 月 21 日 （转自：吴说） 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国通胀数据 CPI & PPI 皆低于预期；本周可关注美联储官员发表讲 话、欧洲央行 4 月货币政策会议纪要以及澳洲联储公布利率决议等。 美国 4 月未季调 CPI 年率为 2.3%，为 2021 年 2 月以来新低，市场预期为 2.4%。 美国 4 月 PPI 年率录得 2.4%，连续第三个月下降，为去年 9 月以来新低。4 月 PPI 月率录 得-0.5%，创 2020 年 4 月以来新低，远低于市场预期的 0.2%。 日本央行 4 月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要显示，尽管他们对美国关税的潜在影响变得更加谨 慎，但他们并未放弃进一步加息。 美国至 5 月 10 日当周初请失业金人数为 22.9 万人，符合预期。 前值由 22.8 万人修正为 22.9 万 人。 美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届 Thomas Laubach 研究会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美国可能正在进 入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 美 ...