来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 本周重点事件 & 指标 12 月 29 日 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，核心 PCE 符合预期，日本央行 10 月会 议纪要显示加息可能性；本周重点关注美联储货币政策会议纪要以及美联储主席人选或将揭晓等。 上周回顾日本央行 10 月会议纪要：若经济和物价预测如期实现，将继续加息。美联储克利夫兰联储主 席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内没有必要调整利率。她 称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清 楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少至明年春季，并认为当 前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值录得 4.3%，远超预期的 3.3% 和前值 3.8%。核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值为 2.9%，符合市场预期，高于前值 2.6%。此外， 实际个人消费支出季率初值为 3.5%，显著高于预期的 2.7% 和前值 2.5% ...

吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国 11 月 ADP 低于预期，9 月核心 PCE 2.8% 低于前值和预期；本周 重点关注美联储 12 月利率决议以及"美联储影子主席"哈塞特、日本央行行长植田和男等人发表公开讲 话等。 来源：市场资讯 上周回顾美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数 -3.2 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最低水平，预期 1 万人，前值 4.2 万 人。美国至 11 月 29 日当周初请失业金人数 19.1 万人，预期 22 万人，前值由 21.6 万人修正为 21.8 万 人。美国公布 9 月核心 PCE 同比上涨 2.8%，前值 2.9%，创三个月低位，市场预期为连续第三个月录得 2.9%。美乌"建设性"会谈未取得突破。 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 本周重点事件 & 指标 12 月 08 日 12 月 09 日OpenAI"紧急提前"发布 GPT-5.2（待定） 12 月 10 日中国 11 月 CPI 年率（09:30）中国 11 月 M2 货币供应年率（待定） 12 月 11 日美联储利率决议（03:00）美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会（03:30） 1 ...

来源：市场资讯 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美联储经济状况褐皮书显示经济几无变化，劳动力需求减弱，欧央行 10 月会议纪要"不急于降息"成共识；本周重点关注"美联储最爱通胀指标"9 月 PCE 以及美国 11 月 ADP 等。 上周回顾 美国 9 月 PPI 年率 2.7%，预期 2.7%，前值 2.60%。美国至 11 月 22 日当周初请失业金人数 21.6 万人， 预期 22.5 万人，前值由 22 万人修正为 22.2 万人。美联储公布经济状况褐皮书：调查期间美国经济几无 变化，劳动力需求减弱，物价压力温和上升，消费者支出面临考验。欧央行 10 月会议纪要："不急于降 息"成共识，当前观望是最佳策略。 本周重点事件 & 指标 （来源：吴说） 12 月 01 日 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 12 月 04 日美国至 11 月 29 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） 12 月 05 日美国 9 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率（23:00） 美国 11 月 ISM 制造业 PMI（23:00） 议息会议在即，美联储已进入静默期 美俄会谈 12 月 02 日美联储主席鲍威尔在一场纪念活动中发 ...

Core Insights - Trump's threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China has caused significant market turbulence [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for moderate easing in the current context, with potential further rate cuts expected within the year [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, with actual GDP growth decelerating and a softening labor market [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve anticipates a reduction in bank reserves to approximately $2.8 trillion by Q1 2026 as part of its balance sheet normalization process [2] - The initial October inflation rate expectation in the U.S. is 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 4.7% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October is at 55, marking the lowest level since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [2] Upcoming Events - Key economic indicators to be released include China's September CPI on October 15 and the U.S. September PPI on October 16 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event on October 17 [3] - A G20 finance ministers and central bank governors press conference is set for October 17 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities and gold, while suggesting caution for industrial products and bonds [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities: The macroeconomic outlook is generally positive for equity assets, supported by favorable indicators [2][7]. - Bonds: The macroeconomic environment is also favorable for bond assets, although technical indicators suggest a downward trend [2][7]. - Industrial Products: The macroeconomic perspective is negative for industrial products, with both macro and technical indicators indicating a downward trend [2][7]. - Gold: The macroeconomic outlook is positive for gold assets, with technical indicators showing an upward trend [2][7]. Technical Analysis - Equities: The technical trend for equity assets is upward, with a moderate valuation and current capital outflow [2][12][19]. - Bonds: The technical trend for bond assets is downward, despite a positive macroeconomic outlook [2][12]. - Industrial Products: The technical trend for industrial products is also downward, aligning with the macroeconomic view [2][12]. - Gold: The technical trend for gold assets is upward, consistent with the macroeconomic analysis [2][12]. Asset Performance Tracking - Historical performance of a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators shows a return of 9.47% for 2025, with an annualized return of 12.04% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations yielded returns of 14.15% and 5.90%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.65% and 9.68% since April 2006 [3][30][33]. Summary of Indicators - The article summarizes the scores for macro and technical indicators across asset classes, indicating a total score of 3 for equities, 2 for bonds, -2 for industrial products, and 2 for gold [21][22][23].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment data for June showed a rare divergence, with a disappointing ADP report but strong non-farm payrolls, indicating mixed labor market signals [1][2] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, moving from clean energy investments and social security expansion to tax cuts, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration enforcement [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment number decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest drop since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 95,000 [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, slightly below the expected 240,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [2] - Seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expectation of 110,000 [2] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill includes a $5 trillion increase in the U.S. debt ceiling and significantly cuts funding for healthcare programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects [2] - The European Central Bank's June monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that most inflation indicators suggest medium-term inflation will stabilize around the 2% target [2] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's June foreign exchange reserves and CPI, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent macroeconomic indicators, including the lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.4% for May, and anticipates significant central bank decisions this week, particularly from the U.S., Japan, and the UK [1] - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the previous value was revised from 2.3% [1] - The U.S. May PPI year-on-year remained at 2.6%, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 2.4% to 2.5% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 were reported at 248,000, slightly above the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised to 248,000 [1] - China's May CPI year-on-year was reported at -0.1%, better than the expected -0.2%, while the previous value remained at -0.1% [1] - China's M2 money supply year-on-year growth was reported at 7.9%, below the expected 8.1% and the previous value of 8% [1] - The Federal Reserve's quarterly financial accounts report indicated a decline in U.S. household assets for the first quarter of 2023, marking the first decrease since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and economic projections on June 19, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [1] - The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their rate decisions on June 19 [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor will speak at a trust association meeting on June 20 [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Recent macroeconomic indicators show that US inflation data (CPI & PPI) fell below expectations, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy and economic conditions [1]. Weekly Review - The US April CPI year-on-year rate was 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, with market expectations at 2.4% [1]. - The US April PPI year-on-year rate recorded 2.4%, marking a third consecutive month of decline and the lowest since September of the previous year. The month-on-month PPI for April was -0.5%, the lowest since April 2020, significantly below the market expectation of 0.2% [1]. - The Bank of Japan's April monetary policy meeting indicated a cautious stance regarding the potential impacts of US tariffs, while not ruling out further interest rate hikes [1]. - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10 were 229,000, aligning with expectations, with the previous value revised from 228,000 to 229,000 [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the challenges posed by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks to the economy and the central bank [1]. - The initial consumer inflation expectations for May in the US were 7.3%, compared to an expectation of 6.5% and a previous value of 6.5% [1]. - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for May was 50.8, down from April's final value of 52.2, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [1]. Upcoming Key Events & Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision on May 20 [1]. - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang will speak at the Taipei International Computer Show, discussing advancements in AI and accelerated computing technologies [1]. - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will address economic outlook and monetary policy on May 22 [1]. - The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its April monetary policy meeting on May 22 [1].