来源：市场资讯 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国 12 月 PCE 高于预期，美联储会议纪要显示分歧明显；本周重点关 注美国 15%的全球关税生效、特朗普发表国情咨文以及英伟达财报等。 上周回顾美国 12 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比 3%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.8%。美国至 2 月 14 日当周初请失 业金人数 20.6 万人，为 1 月 10 日当周以来新低，预期 22.5 万人，前值由 22.7 万人修正为 22.9 万人。 2025 年第四季度美国 GDP 按年化增长 1.4%，显著低于道琼斯调查预期的 2.5%，全年增速为 2.2%，低 于 2024 年的 2.8%。美联储公布货币政策会议纪要显示美联储官员对货币政策预期分歧明显。本周重点 事件 & 指标 02 月 23 日 伊朗确定与美方的协议草案，以供谈判 02 月 24 日 02 月 26 日英伟达公布财报（05:00）美国至 2 月 21 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） （来源：吴说） 02 月 27 日美国 1 月 PPI 年率（21:30） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 美国 15%的全球关税生效 美国总统特朗普发 ...

（来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周欧央行维持利率不变，美国 1 月 ADP 低于预期；本周重点关注美国非 农就业数据以及美国 1 月 CPI 等。 上周回顾美国 1 月 ADP 就业人数 2.2 万人，预期 4.8 万人，前值 4.1 万人。欧洲央行维持三大利率不 变，符合市场预期，为连续第五次会议按兵不动。存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率分别 维持在 2%、2.15% 和 2.40% 不变美国至 1 月 31 日当周初请失业金人数 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，前 值 20.9 万人。日本央行公布 1 月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要：有委员提议及时升息以应对通膨。 美国 2 月一年期通胀率预期初值为 3.5%，预期 4%。美国 2 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值从 1 月份 的 56.4 升至 57.3。本周重点事件 & 指标 02 月 11 日 02 月 12 日 美国至 2 月 7 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） 02 月 13 日 美国 1 月未季调 CPI 年率（21:30） 美国 1 月失业率（21:30） 美国 1 月 ...

吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周日本央行维持利率不变，美国通胀数据符合预期；本周重点关注美联储 利率决议以及美国 12 月 PPI 等。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 加拿大央行公布利率决议和货币政策报告（22:45） 01 月 29 日美联储 FOMC 公布利率决议（03:00）美国至 1 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） 01 月 30 日美国 12 月 PPI 年率（21:30） 01 月 31 日中国 1 月官方制造业 PMI（09:30） 上周回顾美国 11 月整体 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，预期为 2.8%。美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金 人数 20 万人，预期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9%，前 值 2.90%。美国总统特朗普在达沃斯表示，致力于保持美国在加密货币领域的领先地位，必须采取措施 防止中国染指该领域。中国 2025 年 GDP ...

Group 1 - The US GDP for Q3 exceeded expectations, recording an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, compared to the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8% [2] - The core PCE price index for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.6% [2] - The actual personal consumption expenditures for Q3 showed a significant increase, with an initial rate of 3.5%, surpassing the expected 2.7% and the previous 2.5% [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes indicated a potential for continued interest rate hikes if economic and price forecasts are met [2] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates in the coming months, maintaining a policy rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% at least until spring next year [2] - The Canadian central bank decided to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% after a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points earlier in the year, citing ongoing supply surplus in the economy [2] Group 3 - Key upcoming events include the release of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting summary on December 29 and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes on December 31 [3] - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 are expected to be 214,000, lower than the anticipated 224,000 [2] - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by President Trump is expected in the first week of January [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. November ADP employment figure decreased by 32,000, marking the lowest level since March 2023, with expectations set at an increase of 10,000 and a previous value of 42,000 [1] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 were reported at 191,000, below the expected 220,000, with the previous value revised from 216,000 to 218,000 [1] - The U.S. September core PCE increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.9%, reaching a three-month low, while market expectations were for a consistent 2.9% [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 11 and a press conference by Chairman Powell shortly after [1] - The release of China's November CPI year-on-year and M2 money supply year-on-year is scheduled for December 10 [1] - The "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve, Hassett, is set to attend the CEO Council Summit [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates minimal changes in the U.S. economy, with weakened labor demand and moderate price pressures [1][2] - The European Central Bank's October meeting minutes reflect a consensus of "not rushing to cut interest rates," suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching expectations and up from a previous value of 2.6% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 were reported at 216,000, below the expected 225,000, with the previous value revised from 220,000 to 222,000 [2] Upcoming Events & Indicators - Key upcoming events include a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on December 1, the release of the November ADP employment figures on December 3, and the September core PCE price index on December 5 [3]

Core Insights - Trump's threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China has caused significant market turbulence [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for moderate easing in the current context, with potential further rate cuts expected within the year [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, with actual GDP growth decelerating and a softening labor market [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve anticipates a reduction in bank reserves to approximately $2.8 trillion by Q1 2026 as part of its balance sheet normalization process [2] - The initial October inflation rate expectation in the U.S. is 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 4.7% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October is at 55, marking the lowest level since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [2] Upcoming Events - Key economic indicators to be released include China's September CPI on October 15 and the U.S. September PPI on October 16 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event on October 17 [3] - A G20 finance ministers and central bank governors press conference is set for October 17 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities and gold, while suggesting caution for industrial products and bonds [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities: The macroeconomic outlook is generally positive for equity assets, supported by favorable indicators [2][7]. - Bonds: The macroeconomic environment is also favorable for bond assets, although technical indicators suggest a downward trend [2][7]. - Industrial Products: The macroeconomic perspective is negative for industrial products, with both macro and technical indicators indicating a downward trend [2][7]. - Gold: The macroeconomic outlook is positive for gold assets, with technical indicators showing an upward trend [2][7]. Technical Analysis - Equities: The technical trend for equity assets is upward, with a moderate valuation and current capital outflow [2][12][19]. - Bonds: The technical trend for bond assets is downward, despite a positive macroeconomic outlook [2][12]. - Industrial Products: The technical trend for industrial products is also downward, aligning with the macroeconomic view [2][12]. - Gold: The technical trend for gold assets is upward, consistent with the macroeconomic analysis [2][12]. Asset Performance Tracking - Historical performance of a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators shows a return of 9.47% for 2025, with an annualized return of 12.04% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations yielded returns of 14.15% and 5.90%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.65% and 9.68% since April 2006 [3][30][33]. Summary of Indicators - The article summarizes the scores for macro and technical indicators across asset classes, indicating a total score of 3 for equities, 2 for bonds, -2 for industrial products, and 2 for gold [21][22][23].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment data for June showed a rare divergence, with a disappointing ADP report but strong non-farm payrolls, indicating mixed labor market signals [1][2] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, moving from clean energy investments and social security expansion to tax cuts, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration enforcement [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment number decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest drop since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 95,000 [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, slightly below the expected 240,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [2] - Seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expectation of 110,000 [2] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill includes a $5 trillion increase in the U.S. debt ceiling and significantly cuts funding for healthcare programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects [2] - The European Central Bank's June monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that most inflation indicators suggest medium-term inflation will stabilize around the 2% target [2] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's June foreign exchange reserves and CPI, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [2]