Core Insights - Trump's threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China has caused significant market turbulence [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for moderate easing in the current context, with potential further rate cuts expected within the year [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, with actual GDP growth decelerating and a softening labor market [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve anticipates a reduction in bank reserves to approximately $2.8 trillion by Q1 2026 as part of its balance sheet normalization process [2] - The initial October inflation rate expectation in the U.S. is 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 4.7% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October is at 55, marking the lowest level since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [2] Upcoming Events - Key economic indicators to be released include China's September CPI on October 15 and the U.S. September PPI on October 16 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event on October 17 [3] - A G20 finance ministers and central bank governors press conference is set for October 17 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities and gold, while suggesting caution for industrial products and bonds [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities: The macroeconomic outlook is generally positive for equity assets, supported by favorable indicators [2][7]. - Bonds: The macroeconomic environment is also favorable for bond assets, although technical indicators suggest a downward trend [2][7]. - Industrial Products: The macroeconomic perspective is negative for industrial products, with both macro and technical indicators indicating a downward trend [2][7]. - Gold: The macroeconomic outlook is positive for gold assets, with technical indicators showing an upward trend [2][7]. Technical Analysis - Equities: The technical trend for equity assets is upward, with a moderate valuation and current capital outflow [2][12][19]. - Bonds: The technical trend for bond assets is downward, despite a positive macroeconomic outlook [2][12]. - Industrial Products: The technical trend for industrial products is also downward, aligning with the macroeconomic view [2][12]. - Gold: The technical trend for gold assets is upward, consistent with the macroeconomic analysis [2][12]. Asset Performance Tracking - Historical performance of a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators shows a return of 9.47% for 2025, with an annualized return of 12.04% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations yielded returns of 14.15% and 5.90%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.65% and 9.68% since April 2006 [3][30][33]. Summary of Indicators - The article summarizes the scores for macro and technical indicators across asset classes, indicating a total score of 3 for equities, 2 for bonds, -2 for industrial products, and 2 for gold [21][22][23].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment data for June showed a rare divergence, with a disappointing ADP report but strong non-farm payrolls, indicating mixed labor market signals [1][2] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, moving from clean energy investments and social security expansion to tax cuts, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration enforcement [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment number decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest drop since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 95,000 [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, slightly below the expected 240,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [2] - Seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expectation of 110,000 [2] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill includes a $5 trillion increase in the U.S. debt ceiling and significantly cuts funding for healthcare programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects [2] - The European Central Bank's June monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that most inflation indicators suggest medium-term inflation will stabilize around the 2% target [2] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's June foreign exchange reserves and CPI, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent macroeconomic indicators, including the lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.4% for May, and anticipates significant central bank decisions this week, particularly from the U.S., Japan, and the UK [1] - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the previous value was revised from 2.3% [1] - The U.S. May PPI year-on-year remained at 2.6%, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 2.4% to 2.5% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 were reported at 248,000, slightly above the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised to 248,000 [1] - China's May CPI year-on-year was reported at -0.1%, better than the expected -0.2%, while the previous value remained at -0.1% [1] - China's M2 money supply year-on-year growth was reported at 7.9%, below the expected 8.1% and the previous value of 8% [1] - The Federal Reserve's quarterly financial accounts report indicated a decline in U.S. household assets for the first quarter of 2023, marking the first decrease since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and economic projections on June 19, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [1] - The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their rate decisions on June 19 [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor will speak at a trust association meeting on June 20 [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Recent macroeconomic indicators show that US inflation data (CPI & PPI) fell below expectations, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy and economic conditions [1]. Weekly Review - The US April CPI year-on-year rate was 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, with market expectations at 2.4% [1]. - The US April PPI year-on-year rate recorded 2.4%, marking a third consecutive month of decline and the lowest since September of the previous year. The month-on-month PPI for April was -0.5%, the lowest since April 2020, significantly below the market expectation of 0.2% [1]. - The Bank of Japan's April monetary policy meeting indicated a cautious stance regarding the potential impacts of US tariffs, while not ruling out further interest rate hikes [1]. - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10 were 229,000, aligning with expectations, with the previous value revised from 228,000 to 229,000 [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the challenges posed by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks to the economy and the central bank [1]. - The initial consumer inflation expectations for May in the US were 7.3%, compared to an expectation of 6.5% and a previous value of 6.5% [1]. - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for May was 50.8, down from April's final value of 52.2, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [1]. Upcoming Key Events & Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision on May 20 [1]. - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang will speak at the Taipei International Computer Show, discussing advancements in AI and accelerated computing technologies [1]. - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will address economic outlook and monetary policy on May 22 [1]. - The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its April monetary policy meeting on May 22 [1].