Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and subsequent monetary easing measures in China are expected to positively impact the second-hand housing market in Hefei, leading to a potential stabilization and recovery in property prices [2][9]. External Policy Support - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has narrowed the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., providing an opportunity for international capital to reallocate towards Hefei's real estate market, which is seen as a promising investment destination [2][3]. - The expectation of a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger Chinese yuan may attract overseas investors to Hefei's real estate, particularly in core areas like the Government Affairs District and Binhu District, enhancing market confidence [2][3]. Domestic Interest Rate Dynamics - The anticipated decline in domestic mortgage rates, particularly the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) potentially dropping to the 2%-3% range, is expected to stimulate demand in the second-hand housing market [3][4]. - For buyers, a reduction in mortgage rates from 3% to 2.5% could lower monthly payments significantly, making home purchases more affordable and encouraging entry into the market [3][4]. Market Fundamentals - Hefei's strong urban fundamentals, including continuous population inflow and persistent housing demand, particularly in well-developed districts, are crucial for supporting the second-hand housing market [5][9]. - Unlike third and fourth-tier cities facing high inventory pressures, Hefei's market is experiencing a temporary emotional downturn, with core areas likely to see price stabilization and potential recovery as demand is activated by lower interest rates [5][9]. Practical Guidance for Buyers and Sellers - For first-time buyers, the current environment presents a favorable opportunity to purchase homes at lower costs, with ample listings available [7][10]. - Sellers in non-core areas should consider selling during this window of opportunity to avoid further losses, while those in prime locations may benefit from waiting for a more stable market next year [7][10]. Conclusion - The Hefei second-hand housing market is showing signs of stabilization due to external and internal factors, but a full recovery will require patience and monitoring of economic fundamentals and policy implementations [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in the A-share market, particularly the 2.85% drop in the ChiNext Index, is not indicative of the end of a bull market but rather a typical shakeout behavior during an upward trend, suggesting a potential for short-term rebound [1][4]. Market Adjustment Factors - The market adjustment on September 2 was influenced by multiple factors, including technical pressure from accumulated profit-taking after a prolonged upward trend since April [3]. - There was a significant rotation of funds from high-valuation growth sectors, particularly in technology, to undervalued defensive sectors such as banking and utilities, amplifying market volatility [3]. - The negative sentiment from the substantial decline in U.S. tech stocks and the market's cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting contributed to the adjustment [3]. Long-term Market Support - Despite the recent downturn, the core logic supporting a medium to long-term positive outlook for the market remains intact, driven by ongoing policies in sectors like "Artificial Intelligence+" and measures aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting consumption [5]. - The rapid decline is seen as a quick release of risks, effectively digesting profit-taking and eliminating localized bubbles, which can accumulate strength for future upward movement [5]. Short-term Market Outlook - In the short term, there is potential for a technical rebound following the recent sharp decline, supported by ample policy tools for growth stabilization and expectations of possible interest rate cuts [7]. - The anticipated easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a weaker dollar may enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, potentially leading to a continued inflow of northbound capital [7]. - The significant trading volume of 2.87 trillion yuan during the decline indicates a release of short-term selling pressure, with stabilization in key sectors providing support for the market [7]. - The emotional release from the sharp drop may lead to a stabilization of market sentiment, allowing for a recovery of quality stocks that were oversold [7].

Real Estate Market - The real estate market in the second half of 2025 is experiencing significant changes, with a shift from a "buying frenzy" to a more subdued environment, exemplified by promotional tactics such as "85% off for existing homes" and free parking spaces in Shanghai [1][2] - The controversial "shared area" concept is being phased out, with cities like Guangzhou and Hangzhou mandating that new home sales be based on "usable area," allowing consumers to save significantly on property costs [1] - Over 20 cities have made "existing home sales" a mandatory requirement for new land parcels, indicating a decline in the era of selling off-plan properties and addressing consumer concerns about unfinished projects [2] Automotive Market - The automotive market is witnessing intense price competition, with traditional fuel vehicles seeing unprecedented discounts, such as a 14,000 yuan reduction on a German brand's C-class sedan [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has surpassed 60%, with significant advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure, leading to improved consumer confidence [4][6] - The cost of owning new energy vehicles is decreasing, with nighttime charging rates as low as 0.45 yuan per kilowatt-hour, resulting in a cost of only 3 yuan per 100 kilometers [6] Consumer Purchasing Power - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in June, but overall prices for daily consumer goods remain stable, with some sectors increasing promotional activities [8] - The decline in housing and vehicle prices is enhancing purchasing power, with mortgage rates dropping to historical lows, allowing consumers to save on monthly payments [9] - The financial market is shifting towards low-risk investment products, with three-year large-denomination time deposits yielding less than 2%, prompting a preference for safer investment options [9]

Core Insights - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that the net interest margin (NIM) of Chinese commercial banks is expected to be 1.43% in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 percentage points, marking a historical low [1] - However, the downward trend in NIM is expected to ease compared to the same period in 2024, with pressures on interest income anticipated to persist in the first three quarters of 2025 but with some alleviation [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting Net Interest Margin - The decline in NIM is attributed to several factors: the adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) leading to the repricing of existing loans, the orderly resolution of implicit debt, and weakened demand increasing pricing pressure on bank assets [2] - Positive factors contributing to alleviating the downward pressure on NIM include major banks reducing deposit rates, with significant cuts in both current and fixed deposit rates in May 2025 [2] Group 2: Loan Rates and Trends - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in March 2025 was 3.26%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was 3.13%, down 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The report suggests that the pricing of new loans is stabilizing, indicating a potential shift in the interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - It is projected that the net profit and operating income of commercial banks in the first three quarters of 2025 will remain largely unchanged compared to the same period in 2024 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the policy support period, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends. The central bank's operations and policy adjustments aimed to boost credit, stabilize market expectations, and promote high - quality economic development. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations affected market risk appetite, and the suspension of tariffs and export rush provided short - term support for domestic demand, which might delay the subsequent policy rhythm. In the context of capital disturbances, policy wait - and - see, and supply pressure in June, the bond market will maintain a short - term volatile and slightly strong pattern, and a clear policy signal is needed to break the situation [1][2][3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30%. Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02%. Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index was 98.79, with a decrease of 0.06 and a decline rate of 0.06%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1932, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.26%; DR007 was 1.54, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.14%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.60, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37% [7][8] 3.2 Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with various terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, etc [9][13][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report shows multiple charts such as the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank repurchase with collateral, and the issuance of local government bonds [24][26][27] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), etc [32][35] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [38][40][51] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [47][50][53] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][60] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][70][72]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Policy support continues, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The central bank's policies aim to boost credit, stabilize market expectations, and promote high - quality economic development. However, the progress of China - US trade negotiations affects market risk appetite, and the suspension of tariffs and export rush may delay subsequent policy implementation [1][2]. - In the short - term, the bond market will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. A clear signal from the policy side is needed to break the current situation [3]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 0.10% year - on - year; China's PPI (monthly) decreased by 0.40% month - on - month and 3.30% year - on - year [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (0.51%); M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% (- 1.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% (1.02%) [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 98.82, an increase of 0.69 (0.70%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1806, a decrease of 0.004 (- 0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.51, with no change (- 0.13%); DR007 was 1.52, with no change (- 0.22%); R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 (- 6.66%); The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.62, a decrease of 0.01 (- 0.77%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, with no change (- 0.77%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc [12]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Central bank: On June 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. - Money market: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.369%, 1.508%, 1.571%, and 1.621% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [67]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [74]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile price of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the first cut of domestic 1 - year and 5 - year LPR this year supports aluminum prices. The supply - demand relationship remains strong overall, but tariff disturbances are significant, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [4][12]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience a short - term decline followed by a rebound in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [12]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the 45 million - ton ceiling, and the annual output growth is limited. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9%. The demand in the aluminum industry shows a differentiated pattern among different sectors, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historically low level [9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts to July and December and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the domestic LPR cut supports prices. The supply - demand relationship is strong overall, but tariff disturbances are large, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, and short - term trading within the range of 19,500 - 20,500 is appropriate [4]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [6]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, continue to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: The short - term supply of domestic bauxite will remain tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging, and the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea is expected to decline significantly from June [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 29, the total built - in capacity of national metallurgical alumina is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 86.67 million tons/year. The weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.21% due to the end of some enterprises' overhauls, but the operating capacity is still at a low level [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the order growth due to pre - export rush at the end of May is not obvious [9]. 3.3.2 Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57% this week. The building materials sector is supported by infrastructure project orders in the north, but some small and medium - sized enterprises in the north and south report limited infrastructure orders. The operating rate of photovoltaic frame sample enterprises shows a differentiated pattern [11]. - **Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.6%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The short - term operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to rise slightly [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises remained stable at 64.8%. The follow - up operating rate is expected to remain within a certain range [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.0%, and the subsequent operating rate may continue to decline weakly [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 509,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last week and about 35% lower than the same period last year, at a low level since 2017. The aluminum rod inventory is 126,000 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and about 43% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. 3.3.4 Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 700 yuan/ton [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Expectation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the trading atmosphere may weaken. The international situation may affect the overseas aluminum price and then the domestic spot aluminum price. Next week, the spot aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and the trading range of electrolytic aluminum futures is 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of some bauxite varieties remained unchanged this week, while the price of alumina in Henan increased by 2.95% week - on - week. The price of ice晶石 increased by 9.11% week - on - week, and the price of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.42% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - Domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the arrival of aluminum ore at ports may decrease from June. Alumina inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and related products such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, domestic production growth is limited, and the import impact is weakened due to the inverted theoretical import profit. Domestic supply - demand is expected to tighten compared to 2024, but there is a high probability of becoming looser again in the seasonal off - season of June and July [18]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Curve**: The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is neutral to strong. Under the situation of low inventory and pre - export rush expectation, the spot price supports the futures price [31]. - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Monthly Seasonality**: From the statistical data of the past 10 years, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market may fluctuate slightly in the first week, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [35]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) discount is 5.75 US dollars/ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,260 yuan/ton this week [37][42]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The latest net long position remained stable, and both the long and short camps increased their positions. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [45]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The net short position remained stable this week, and both the long and short camps increased their positions, indicating increased market divergence. The short - term direction is not clear, and the market is expected to fluctuate [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fluctuated. The rise was mainly due to the policy benefits brought by the simultaneous reduction of LPR and deposit rates, which strengthened the market's expectation of a further decline in the interest rate center and boosted medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds. However, after the policy was implemented, along with the increasing game sentiment on the progress of Sino - US negotiations and future economic data, the risk preference recovered, increasing the upward pressure on long - bond yields, and the futures bond trends became more differentiated and volatile. The approaching supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on the fiscal side also intensified market concerns about duration pressure. Overall, the subsequent trend still depends on the performance of economic data and the rhythm of fiscal policies [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% (-2.97%) [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.60 (+0.61%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1865, with a month - on - month increase of 0.017 (+0.23%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 (+1.20%); DR007 was 1.62, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 (-2.17%); R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.69, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 (+1.10%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.10, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+1.10%) [9] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Market Data**: On May 27, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.74 yuan, and 119.46 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.11%, and - 0.26% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.086 yuan, - 0.073 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, and 0.250 yuan respectively [2] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 27, 2025, the central bank conducted a 448 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2] - **Money Market Rates**: The repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.452%, 1.598%, 1.667%, and 1.614% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2] 4. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, etc. [36][41][42] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents data on the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years through figures [44][46][57] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows data on the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years through figures [53][56][59] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides data on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years through figures [64][67] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report gives data on the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years through figures [71][76][78] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Group 1: Industry Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals for copper prices still provide some support, and Shanghai copper is expected to remain range - bound before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but is likely to experience weak and volatile trading in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply and demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 27, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract fell 0.01% to 77,900 yuan/ton. Macro - disturbances have weakened, but Sino - US trade issues remain uncertain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure on smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May is weaker than in April but better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level with slight accumulation. The price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday [1]. - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the trading was sluggish [6]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,128 tons to 34,961 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 27, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton. Some mining licenses in Guinea were revoked. Alumina operating capacity is expected to recover gradually. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. The downstream开工 rate is weakening, but inventory has decreased unexpectedly. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - In the spot market, the trading was stable, and the downstream increased procurement [7]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 775 tons to 54,567 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 27, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.58% to 122,310 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and nickel downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced nickel ore. The refined nickel market has an oversupply situation. Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost but face long - term supply surplus and weak and volatile trading [3][4]. - In the spot market, nickel prices fell [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,362 tons to 199,998 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 27, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.06% to 264,790 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and consumption in the semiconductor industry is expected to improve. Inventory is at a medium level. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended [5]. - In the spot market, merchants maintained rigid - demand restocking [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 18 tons to 7,998 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,660 tons [15]. Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices rose, and downstream demand led to inventory reduction [9][10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,774 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [15]. Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and the trading was dull [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,015 tons to 37,299 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [15]. Alumina - In the spot market, alumina prices rose in different regions, and the trading was stable [8].

Group 1: Company Transactions - Yuexiu Property announced the sale of 65% equity in Beijing Haizhen Real Estate Co., Ltd. for approximately 4.15 billion yuan, aiming to quickly recover capital and enhance liquidity for new project development [1] - Vanke signed a loan agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group for up to 4.2 billion yuan, with a pledge of up to 6 billion yuan in stock as collateral [2] Group 2: Market Developments - Hangzhou's first batch of "good houses" land auction generated 4.249 billion yuan, with a maximum premium rate of 51.38%, marking the implementation of new residential quality improvement regulations [3] - Poly Developments and Beijing Construction secured land in Beijing for 4.545 billion yuan, with a floor price of 78,418 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 11.95% [4] Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal, with plans for financial support and resource management to enhance urban quality [5] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, with the new rates set at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [6]