Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently facing uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic outlook, leading to a wait-and-see approach before making any decisions [1][2] - Fed officials express concerns about the potential dual mandate dilemma, where rising tariffs could increase inflation while simultaneously raising unemployment [1][2] - The new tariff policies may lead to disruptions in global supply chains, causing persistent inflationary pressures and potential business failures, particularly among small enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating that while tariffs may raise unemployment and inflation, these trends are not yet evident in the data [2] - New York Fed President Williams highlighted the high level of uncertainty and its likely persistence, making it difficult to predict the Fed's next actions [2] - Analysts from Nordea Bank expect the Fed to prioritize economic growth over temporary inflation spikes, provided long-term inflation expectations remain manageable [2] Group 3 - The dollar has shown strong performance, driven by positive trade news and the Fed's hawkish stance, with market expectations for a rate cut of 68 basis points by the end of the year [3] - Continued positive trade developments are essential for sustaining the dollar's bullish momentum [3]

美元兑日元和欧元等主要货币周三保持小幅走强，此前美联储一如市场预期维持利率不变。美联储将指 标利率稳定在4.25%-4.50%的区间，但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险已经加剧，美国经济前景仍不明 朗。美元兑日元上涨1%，报143.840日元，打破了连续三天的跌势，日本市场在两天假期后重新开市。 美联储维持利率不变 美联储在周三的会议上维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.50%，称经济前景不确定性进一步增加， 委员会判断失业率和通胀上升的风险已经加剧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上表示，在经济 走向明朗之前，美联储不能做出先发制人的政策决定。 欧元兑美元 美元兑主要货币的表现 美元兑日元 美元兑日元上涨1%，报143.840日元，打破了连续三天的跌势。日本市场在两天假期后重新开市，投资 者对美元的需求增加，推动了美元兑日元的上涨。 美元兑瑞郎 美元兑瑞郎在震荡交投中上涨了0.09%，报0.82210瑞郎。周一，美元兑瑞郎触及2015年1月以来的最低 点0.8032。这一上涨反映了市场对美元的短期信心增强。 MultiBank大通金融分析美元周三小幅走强，主要得益于美联储维持利率不变的决定以及市场对经济前 ...