Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1][2] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [3] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, with the Fed aiming for full employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term [3][4] Employment Risks - There is an increasing risk of a downturn in employment, with signs of pressure on low-income households and a rise in layoff announcements, although these have not yet led to an increase in unemployment claims [3][4] Inflation Concerns - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain categories, leading to overall inflation rising, but these effects may be temporary [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring the potential for persistent inflation impacts, which could complicate monetary policy [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed has decided to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program, concluding the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1, after three and a half years [2][4] - The decision to stop QT means that the principal from MBS redemptions will be reinvested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities [4] Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Fed regarding future rate actions, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [5][6] - Powell indicated that the lack of data due to the government shutdown could lead to a more cautious approach in future decisions [6] Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, market sentiment shifted, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the S&P 500 declining slightly, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.55%, reaching a new closing high [2][6] - Market expectations for a December rate cut are currently at 67.8%, with a 32.3% probability of maintaining current rates [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to Trump's attitude change on the Russia - Ukraine issue, unclear US economic prospects, large - scale gold purchases by global gold ETF funds, and multiple new highs of gold prices. The medium - and long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, and it has strategic allocation value [1]. - Silver is expected to rise strongly. It follows the upward trend of gold, with strong global policy stimulus and firm demand, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap. However, the fluctuations of gold and other varieties will impact the silver market [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions before the National Day holiday due to the approaching holiday and the fermentation of risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, copper is still favored [1]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to take profit on short positions before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, zinc has an increasing supply and decreasing demand, and is a short - side configuration in the sector [1]. - Lead is under pressure to rebound as domestic lead - producing enterprises resume production, while the expected consumption peak is still in doubt [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production stoppages in the domestic supply, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure. There is an expected decrease in the arrival of bauxite from Guinea, and the destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is not smooth [1]. - Nickel is expected to rebound. There are disturbances in the overseas Indonesian nickel ore end, and there is a certain peak - season consumption expectation in the downstream stainless - steel terminal field [1]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Supply decreases month - on - month while polycrystalline output increases slightly, and the inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The production schedule in September is basically the same as that in August, and the downstream silicon - wafer demand shows certain resilience [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation and unclear US economic prospects, gold prices have risen significantly [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, unclear US economic prospects, continuous inflow of funds (the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust has reached the highest level since August 2022), and in the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold can be bought both in the short - and long - term, with short - term support at 8400. Silver has support around 9800, but position and rhythm need to be considered when buying. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, closing with a doji [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decrease in September [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions of copper and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, copper is favored due to its strategic importance and the tight supply of copper concentrates. Shanghai copper is recommended to focus on the range of [78500, 81500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [9850, 10500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. In August, imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Inventory shows different trends at home and abroad, and demand is affected by the typhoon [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Shanghai zinc is recommended to focus on the range of [21800, 22200] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on the range of [2850, 2950] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises has a slight increase. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply pressure increases [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel showed a rebound trend [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. In the domestic nickel industry chain, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. For stainless steel, there is still an expectation of a consumption peak season, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and fluctuated widely during the session, and closed slightly lower [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate has not significantly shrunk, and the demand side has released a lot of positive news. The total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73000 - 74500] yuan/ton [22].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has successfully achieved its price stability target, but uncertainties regarding the future economic outlook remain despite a trade agreement between the EU and the US [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The uncertainty in the economic landscape has decreased by approximately 50% compared to previous conditions, marking a significant improvement [3]. - The ECB has maintained its lending rates steady for the second consecutive meeting, following eight rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the past year [3]. - Officials expect inflation to temporarily dip below the target level next year but stabilize around the 2% target thereafter, with gradual economic momentum anticipated in the coming quarters [3]. Group 2: Policy Stance - As long as the economy does not face major shocks, there is no need for further easing of monetary policy, according to several officials [3]. - However, some officials believe that the possibility of implementing additional policy measures should not be ruled out [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision indicates a potential for three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year, with one additional cut expected next year [2] - The newly appointed member, Milan, advocates for a total cut of 150 basis points this year and was the only one to vote against a 25 basis point cut, supporting a 50 basis point reduction instead [2] - Fed Chairman Powell describes the rate cut as a risk management decision, emphasizing that the current policy has been on the right track this year despite rising inflation and slowing job growth [4] Group 2 - Following the Fed's decision, gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to around 3650 before spiking to a historical high of 3707.5, then closing at approximately 3659 [4] - The market sentiment around gold is expected to adjust rather than reach a peak, with a mid-term expectation that gold will not fall below the 3500 USD mark [6] - Short-term analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the 3646 support level, they may decline further towards 3625 and 3262, while resistance is noted around the 3670-75 range [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the US dollar index following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting the cautious approach of the Fed towards future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, leading to a temporary drop in the dollar index to a new low of 96.224 since February 2022 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut was a measure to manage risks associated with a potentially weak labor market, emphasizing that there is no immediate need to accelerate the easing process [1] - The latest dot plot suggests a potential further reduction of 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year, with only one planned cut in 2026, indicating a cautious policy stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index rebounded to close at 97.074, marking a daily increase of 0.44% [1] - Analysts interpret the Fed's cautious outlook as a reflection of ongoing concerns regarding inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, suggesting that monetary policy will remain data-dependent [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has broken below a head-and-shoulders pattern and a trading range, currently experiencing a rebound after this breakdown [1] - Key support is identified at 96.37, which is the low point from July 1 and the lowest point of the year; a further drop below this level could target the 95.00 mark, with a measured decline from the head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential drop to 94.44 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent policy statement adjustment was unexpected, as it removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, now emphasizing that uncertainty "remains high" [1] Group 1 - Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Allstate Life Insurance Company, noted the surprising shift in the Federal Reserve's wording [1] - Despite the ongoing uncertainty, there has been a significant reduction in uncertainty due to clearer trade and tariff situations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [1] Group 1 - The FOMC acknowledges ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement reflects concerns about inflation and its potential effects on economic growth [1] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators closely to inform future actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASM International highlights that uncertainties remain relatively high due to tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the overall economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The company is facing challenges from tariffs that could impact its operational costs and pricing strategies [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to an unstable business environment, potentially affecting supply chains and market access [1] - The overall economic outlook remains uncertain, which could influence investment decisions and market demand for the company's products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting held on June 17-18, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic expansion and inflation concerns [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand steadily, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting the data [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market conditions are still robust [1] - Inflation rates are still slightly elevated, indicating ongoing price pressures in the economy [1] Economic Outlook - Participants in the meeting unanimously agreed that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has decreased but remains high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that participants believe uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has diminished due to announced and anticipated tariff reductions, although overall uncertainty remains at a high level [1] Group 1 - Participants noted that the reduction in tariffs has contributed to a clearer economic outlook [1] - Despite the reduction in uncertainty, the overall level of uncertainty in the economy is still considered high [1]