中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 特朗普对俄乌态度转变，美国经济前景不明，全球黄金 ETF 基金大量买入黄金，黄 | | | 长期持有 | 金多次刷历史新高。尽管降息落地，但是资金情绪不止。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变， | | ★★ | | 降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金水涨船高，全球政策刺激明显，白银需求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白 | | 白银 | 强势走高 | 银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有冲击。短线等待企稳后做 | | ★★ | | 新的入场打算 | | | | 鲍威尔强调就业风险，市场预测 10 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 93%，美元走弱。国 | | 铜 | 多单止盈 | 庆假期临近，长假避险情绪发酵，多空争夺 8 万关口，建议多单止盈兑现，准备空 | | ★ | | 仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 国庆长假临近，企业刚需备库，需求疲软，建议空单止盈兑现后准备空仓过节，中 | | ★ ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，尽管欧盟与美国达成贸易协议，欧洲央行已成功实现稳 定物价的目标，但未来经济前景的不确定性依然存在。 拉加德在周六播出的电视专访中表示："利率必须瞄准通胀水平——这确实是我们的目标，而且我们现 在已经达成了这一目标。" 目前，欧盟与美国就提高关税达成协议后，局势发展变得更具可预测性。但与特朗普开始实施贸易关税 之前相比，当前形势仍不够明朗。 拉加德指出："不确定性已下降约50%，相较于此前的状态，这是一个显著改善。但我们仍面临诸多不 确定性，所有人都必须应对这一现状。" 欧洲央行上周连续第二次会议维持借贷利率不变。在此之前，该行曾在一年内八次下调利率，每次下调 幅度均为25个基点。政策制定者预计，通胀率在明年暂时低于目标水平后，将稳定在2%左右的目标区 间;未来几个季度，经济也将逐步增强势头。 多名官员表示，只要经济未遭遇重大冲击，就无需进一步实施宽松政策。不过，也有部分官员认为，不 应排除采取更多政策措施的可能性。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision indicates a potential for three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year, with one additional cut expected next year [2] - The newly appointed member, Milan, advocates for a total cut of 150 basis points this year and was the only one to vote against a 25 basis point cut, supporting a 50 basis point reduction instead [2] - Fed Chairman Powell describes the rate cut as a risk management decision, emphasizing that the current policy has been on the right track this year despite rising inflation and slowing job growth [4] Group 2 - Following the Fed's decision, gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to around 3650 before spiking to a historical high of 3707.5, then closing at approximately 3659 [4] - The market sentiment around gold is expected to adjust rather than reach a peak, with a mid-term expectation that gold will not fall below the 3500 USD mark [6] - Short-term analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the 3646 support level, they may decline further towards 3625 and 3262, while resistance is noted around the 3670-75 range [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the US dollar index following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting the cautious approach of the Fed towards future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, leading to a temporary drop in the dollar index to a new low of 96.224 since February 2022 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut was a measure to manage risks associated with a potentially weak labor market, emphasizing that there is no immediate need to accelerate the easing process [1] - The latest dot plot suggests a potential further reduction of 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year, with only one planned cut in 2026, indicating a cautious policy stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index rebounded to close at 97.074, marking a daily increase of 0.44% [1] - Analysts interpret the Fed's cautious outlook as a reflection of ongoing concerns regarding inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, suggesting that monetary policy will remain data-dependent [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has broken below a head-and-shoulders pattern and a trading range, currently experiencing a rebound after this breakdown [1] - Key support is identified at 96.37, which is the low point from July 1 and the lowest point of the year; a further drop below this level could target the 95.00 mark, with a measured decline from the head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential drop to 94.44 [1]

经济学家：美联储措辞调整令人意外 不确定性实际已大幅降低 金十数据7月31日讯，全美人寿保险公司首席经济学家Kathy Bostjancic表示，令人意外的是，美联储在 政策声明中删除了此前关于经济前景不确定性已减弱的措辞，转而强调不确定性"仍处于高位"。在我们 看来，虽然不确定性依然存在，但随着贸易和关税形势趋于明朗，不确定性实际上已大幅降低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [1] Group 1 - The FOMC acknowledges ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement reflects concerns about inflation and its potential effects on economic growth [1] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators closely to inform future actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASM International highlights that uncertainties remain relatively high due to tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the overall economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The company is facing challenges from tariffs that could impact its operational costs and pricing strategies [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to an unstable business environment, potentially affecting supply chains and market access [1] - The overall economic outlook remains uncertain, which could influence investment decisions and market demand for the company's products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting held on June 17-18, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic expansion and inflation concerns [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand steadily, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting the data [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market conditions are still robust [1] - Inflation rates are still slightly elevated, indicating ongoing price pressures in the economy [1] Economic Outlook - Participants in the meeting unanimously agreed that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has decreased but remains high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that participants believe uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has diminished due to announced and anticipated tariff reductions, although overall uncertainty remains at a high level [1] Group 1 - Participants noted that the reduction in tariffs has contributed to a clearer economic outlook [1] - Despite the reduction in uncertainty, the overall level of uncertainty in the economy is still considered high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank highlights ongoing challenges in the economic environment, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [1] - There is a recognition of potential risks stemming from global economic conditions and domestic factors [1] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation and employment trends as key indicators for economic stability [1]