来源：智昇财论 曾被市场视为下月板上钉钉的美联储降息，如今因官员们就经济基本面健康度、以及顽固通胀与疲软招聘孰为主 要风险产生剧烈分歧，演变为胜负各半的博弈。本文描述了目前市场上各联储委员的立场和观点，并摘录了机构 的观点。 美联储若缩减降息规模，将导致住房与汽车信贷成本维持高位。民调数据显示，抵押贷款与汽车贷款利率高企， 正持续推升民众对生活成本过高的普遍不满。 会议前瞻：FMOC投票出现罕见反对票或成大概率事件 多位美联储观察人士预警，无论12月9日至10日会议最终决定降息与否，都可能出现异常规模的反对票。 EvercoreISI分析师克里希纳·古哈测算，若决议降息，反对票可能多达四至五张；若维持利率不变，反对票或达三 张。从美联储历来寻求政策共识的传统来看，四张反对票将构成极度罕见的局面——上一次出现四名官员集体反 对的案例，还是1992年艾伦·格林斯潘担任主席时期。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周一坦言，外界常批评美联储存 在"群体思维"，源于其多数决策以全票通过的形式出台。"那些指责我们搞群体思维的人，做好准备吧，"沃勒周 一在伦敦发表演讲时表示，"你们即将见证很长一段时间以来最缺乏群体思维的美联储…… ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about persistent inflation and tariff effects versus worries about weak employment and slowing demand [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Some officials advocate for pausing interest rate cuts due to concerns over sticky inflation and tariff impacts [1] - Dovish members emphasize the importance of addressing weak employment and declining demand [1] - The government shutdown has interrupted key economic data, exacerbating the division among decision-makers [1] Group 2: Current Interest Rate Context - The current interest rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in December, despite the internal Fed conflict [1] - The situation reflects a rare "hawk-dove standoff" within the Federal Reserve in recent years [1]

劳工部下属的劳工统计局是美国官方核心统计机构。政府"停摆"期间，劳工统计局停止数据采集工 作，也停止数据报告发布。该机构负责的多项重要统计数据发布都将受到影响，包括消费者价格指数等 关键通胀数据。据报道，美国商务部下属的人口普查局和经济分析局等机构的数据统计工作也受到"停 摆"影响。 有经济分析人士认为，美国目前面临就业疲软、通胀顽固的复杂经济局面，重要数据的缺失将直接 影响到各界对美国经济现状的了解和评估，美联储等机构将更难以作出相应的决策。(央视记者 曹健) 受美国联邦政府"停摆"持续影响，美国劳工统计局当地时间7日宣布再次推迟发布月度就业数据统 计报告。这已经是该机构自上月以来第二次推迟发布就业报告。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction, while a 50 basis point cut is also possible [1][4][5] - Recent economic data, including the August CPI and core CPI, align with market expectations, providing a basis for the Fed's decision to cut rates [1][2] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest in nearly two years, indicating a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy [1][3] Group 2 - Market focus has shifted to the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts, with analysts predicting three rate cuts within the year [4][5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 7.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September [4] - Political factors are increasingly influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions, adding complexity and uncertainty to the rate-cutting process [5][6] Group 3 - Global asset reactions to the Fed's rate cuts remain uncertain, with expectations of a weaker dollar and stronger stock market if a 25 basis point cut occurs [6] - A larger cut of 50 basis points could lead to increased liquidity but may also create market volatility [6][7] - Long-term implications suggest that if rate cuts are driven by political pressure rather than economic fundamentals, it could lead to uncontrolled inflation and necessitate a shift in monetary policy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. presents a dual signal, with rising inflation pressures and a significant increase in unemployment claims, impacting the gold market dynamics positively despite short-term volatility [2][3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inflation is rising, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increasing by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, and a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [2]. - Employment data shows a notable decline, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest in three years, significantly above the expected 235,000, and non-farm payrolls only increasing by 22,000 in August, far below the anticipated 75,000 [3]. - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, driven by weak employment data and a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3][4]. - The low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite recent buyer fatigue [4]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a downward trend followed by a rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The price has broken below the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential shift in support levels [8]. - Key support levels to watch include 3613 and 3585, while resistance levels are identified at 3651 and 3674 [9]. - The four-hour chart indicates a slowdown in upward momentum, with the market potentially entering a corrective phase, necessitating close monitoring of price movements [8][9]. Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming financial data to watch includes Germany's August CPI, UK's GDP, and U.S. consumer confidence index, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [11].

Group 1 - The recent statements from Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, indicate a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance towards a more dovish approach, suggesting that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and the lack of sustained inflation from tariff policies [1][2] - The non-farm payroll report revealed only 73,000 new jobs added in July, with revisions to May and June data showing a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, marking an unprecedented 90% revision, which shattered market expectations of labor market resilience [1][2] - Market reactions to the non-farm data have been dramatic, with the probability of a rate cut next month soaring from under 40% to nearly 90%, and expectations for three consecutive rate cuts by the end of the year gaining traction [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy considerations are balancing between "job preservation" and "inflation control," with the unemployment rate rising only slightly to 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy level, yet various labor market indicators suggest a clear softening compared to last year [3][4] - Daly emphasized the need for flexibility in the Fed's approach, indicating that if inflation rises or the labor market improves, fewer than two rate cuts may be necessary, but if labor market weakness persists and inflation remains stable, further actions will be required [4] - The upcoming FOMC meeting in September will focus on two key data points: the August non-farm payroll report and core PCE inflation data, which will significantly influence the Fed's policy direction and market expectations [4]

Market Overview - On August 5, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.14% at 44,111.74 points, the S&P 500 down 0.49% at 6,299.19 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.65% at 20,916.55 points [2][4]. Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the decline in U.S. stocks to tariff announcements and economic data concerns. President Trump announced plans to impose "small tariffs" on imported drugs, with rates potentially rising to 250% over time. He also hinted at upcoming tariffs on semiconductors and chips [4][16]. - Economic indicators show a worrying trend, with the ISM non-manufacturing index for July at 50.1, below expectations of 51.5, indicating stagnation in the services sector. Employment indicators also fell from 47.2 to 46.4, raising concerns about stagflation [4][18]. Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 0.97%, Microsoft down 1.47%, Apple down 0.21%, Google down 0.22%, Meta down 1.67%, and Tesla down 0.19%. However, Amazon saw a slight increase of 0.99% [5][6]. - Amazon announced that its cloud computing division, AWS, will offer OpenAI's models, which may enhance its competitive position against Microsoft Azure [5]. Cryptocurrency Market - Coinbase plans to issue $2 billion in convertible bonds to raise funds for stock buybacks and debt repayment, leading to a stock price drop of over 6% [10]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices rose by 0.25%, closing at approximately $3,535 per ounce [11]. Company Earnings Reports - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported Q2 revenue of $7.69 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase, but net profit fell by 31% to $781 million, leading to a stock price drop of over 2% [13][15]. - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported Q4 net sales of $5.76 billion, below the expected $6.01 billion, with a stock price decline of 1.67% [16].